Oil Prices Hit New High On Supply Fears

[usair_begins_with_u]

You posted a few months ago that you expect oil to go back down below $50. I didn't realize you meant after it crested in the mid 60's. You're brilliant my friend, you have a strong future in options trading (pun intended). If i were you, I'd quit my meager pilot job and a get a position (another pun..) at a hedge fund where you belong buddy!!

 

[jack mama]

If oil is at $63 now, and Feb/Mar 06 at $65...How will a business plan at $45/barrel stand up to this?

If the judge ok's it with the prices at about $20 less per barrel, he is crazy....but hey what do you expect???

 

[Squonk]

:down:

Me thinks that the managers will compensate for the rising oil futures prices by reducing the employee compensation again.

IT'S THE FARES STUPID!

:angry:

 

[delldude]

You posted a few months ago that you expect oil to go back down below $50. I didn't realize you meant after it crested in the mid 60's. You're brilliant my friend, you have a strong future in options trading (pun intended). If i were you, I'd quit my meager pilot job and a get a position (another pun..) at a hedge fund where you belong buddy!!

[post="286579"][/post]​

i got him on radar.....

 

[USA320Pilot]

Usair_begins_with_u:

I still believe fundamentals do not support oil prices over $50 per barrel, never mind $60 per barrel and I am not alone in that assessment. Recently on CNBC both the CEO of Exxon Mobil and Texaco said the same thing.

In my opinion, demand did not suddenly change enough in 12 months to justify trading NYMEX Futures contracts from $35 to $63 per barrel for September delivery. I believe the current run-up still is being driven by speculators and hedge funds, and there will be a technical sell off and a "bear market" at some point.

Was I wrong in regard to believing oil prices would settle around $45 per barrel? Yes and guess what? I have been wrong before and I will be wrong in the future, but I have been right significantly more than wrong when trading the commodity markets.

In regard to your condescending comments regarding pilots having “meagerâ€￾ jobs, I believe most people would dispute your point.

Regards,

USA320Pilot

 

[mwereplanes]

Come on folks, he's too easy a target. He allows emotions (fear and arrogance) to get in the way of his thinking. No one can predict oil prices. But I'd bet higher before lower.

As for the airline business the harsh reality is that the carriers are going to have to raise the fares at some point to sustain the higher fuel cost. No one can sustain a mostly uncontrollable cost (fuel) forever. Not even JetBlue or Southwest. So sooner or later the fares will have to rise or everyone will liquidate. The LCC's think they can hold out with the money losing fares while the established carriers fold but not all will.

It is the fares stupid. But your new company is apparently going to be run be people who understand the business. Except for Crellin who, in my opinion, won't last more than a few months under Parker. So I would not worry too much about fuel costs. ALL the airlines have that problem. That problem will be solved.

I've purchased a number of tickets recently in case fares do rise. Good luck to you all. All except 320. He's too smart to need luck. As we all know. And as he regularly reminds us. Why, he's so smart he still NEEDS his airline job. Even though he's a virtual expert at commodities trading. What a laugh.

And, for the record, he's gone above and beyond to help turn a once proud profession into a "meager job". And that is precisely what it has become.

mr

 

[delldude]

Was I wrong in regard to believing oil prices would settle around $45 per barrel? Yes and guess what? I have been wrong before and I will be wrong in the future, but I have been right significantly more than wrong when trading the commodity markets.


Regards,

USA320Pilot

[post="286618"][/post]​

could this be a veiled attempt at a boeing boy appology??

 

[justaumechanic]

Hey.. Its a start.. He printed he was wrong. 700 should be happy!

If I were to make a quick guess I would think Doug and Company are right now in the midst of saying "OH MY GOD WHAT HAVE WE DONE".

My advice to Doug and Company. Bail out now and pay the millions in the contract. It will be cheaper. Cheaper by a Billion or better..

The investors will give AWA all the money it needs to buy assets at the fire sale. Don't swallow the bitter pill. Let USAirways die.

 

[USA320Pilot]

Justaumechanic:

As a furlouhged US Airways employee, it is clear that you are angry and bitter. Nonetheless, the creditors committee is supporting the company's POR and Disclosure Statement and probably later this week US Airways employees who will be offered employment in Arizona will likely hear the new company's policy on their move.

See Story

Regards,

USA320Pilot

 

[usair_begins_with_u]

I still believe fundamentals do not support oil prices over $50 per barrel, never mind $60 per barrel and I am not alone in that assessment.

What fundementals are you referring too?

That US refineries are maxed out?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=100...=top_world_news

That Worlds Oil Demand is increasing ?
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/4959509/

The world is almost at peak oil production?
http://www.oilcrisis.com/us/NETL/OilPeaking.pdf


Help me help you... what fundementals led you astray oh wise one?

 

[AtlanticBeach]

I also predicted $45/barrel oil by the end of the year. In addition to uncertainty is the US decision concerning UNOCAL. Asian national interests are driving the market and we are all paying for it.

 

[USA320Pilot]

Mwereplanes:

In your eyes I may be an easy target, but in my eyes you are too. I find it interesting that you can hide behind a computer screen and insult other’s, but when privately asked to identify your self you refuse, which clearly speaks of a person who lacks courage.

Meanwhile, here is another interesting article on the subject:

See Story

Regards,

USA320Pilot

 

[usair_begins_with_u]

A320: What fundementals were you refering too? No really, I'm curious.

http://money.cnn.com/2005/07/27/markets/oil_speculation/

Now, for the better news... Indeed, no oil price boom has ever ended without causing a recession in the oil consumer countries. Only unrealistic optimism suggests that it will be any different this time.

 

[BoeingBoy]

Looks like oil closed at $63.94 and NYMEX futures are down 7 cents in aftermarket trading.

Jim

 

[robbedagain]

I dont understand how these airlines are survivng in the US as it is today
with the oil being almost 64 bucks. look at DAL and NWA. IS it now more evident that they will be in ch11 before the end of Sept?