Pilot and Mechanic Shortage

[Wretched Wrench]

Probably won't have to do that. The so-called experts have been saying a pilot shortage was looming since I entered the industry 35 years ago. The big airlines won't be the first to feel a pilot shortage if one does ever appear. It's the RJ/turboprop operators who will feel it.

Jim

Good point. The hope of moving up to a major airline job is what drives their hiring.

 

[xUT]

Probably won't have to do that. The so-called experts have been saying a pilot shortage was looming since I entered the industry 35 years ago. The big airlines won't be the first to feel a pilot shortage if one does ever appear. It's the RJ/turboprop operators who will feel it.

Jim

With the draw down in Iraq and Afghanistan, there could be another glut of pilots and maintenance personnel that have experience. IIRC after Tricky Dick gave us peace in Vietnam, we had a glut of aviation professionals looking for work. I just hope my next flight does not have a pilot thinking they are still flying a warthog...

 

[BoeingBoy]

The big difference between Vietnam and the latest conflicts is the percentage of pilots taking part that aren't full time military but Reserve/Guard instead. I know that US still has a dozen or more out on military leave so assume the much bigger carriers - AA, DL, UA, WN - have more.

But WW is right - despite the concessions the major airlines are still the goal of a large percentage of pilots working elsewhere.

Jim

 

[WorldTraveler]

Given that air transportation in the US is basically entering a no-growth phase due to high fuel prices and consolidation is more likely to happen, the perceived need for aviation professionals is probably overblown because it is based on historical trends which no longer apply.
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Low fare carriers can't afford to stimulate markets with deep discount fares any more ... when you combine that with the fact that the network carriers as a group are quite capable of competing with the low cost carriers as a group, then all that is really likely to happen in the next 5-10 years in the industry is swapping of market share between existing carriers.
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Even though the wars have been funded by reserves, those pilots represent a group that has been pulled out of the cockpits of commercial carriers and will return.

 

[Bob Owens]

Good point. The hope of moving up to a major airline job is what drives their hiring.

The fact that the majors don't pay so well anymore is what is going to make this shortage real. 35 years ago the wages in real terms were around double what they are today. While working class wages have declined across the economy very few have seen as much of a decline as the airlines. Training for these jobs remains expensive and the payoff, a job at a major, just isn't there anymore. Let's face it, unemployment is high, millions are unemployed yet airlines are canceling flights due to pilot shortages, MROS s can't find mechanics and airlines are holding record amounts of OT. The average age is over 50 for mechanics at AA and half he schools that train A&P s have shut own. Not everyone has mechanical aptitude and those that do are no longer looking to work on airplanes. Too much hassle, too little pay.

As far as the drawdown of Iraq and Afghanistan and comparing it to Vietnam how do the mobilizations compare? 300,000 were wounded and 50,000 were killed in vietnam

 

[Birdman]

It would appear a gallon of gasoline has more clout in a shortage condition than airline workers.

 

[Wretched Wrench]

IIRC after Tricky Dick gave us peace in Vietnam, we had a glut of aviation professionals looking for work.

I don't remember a glut of mechanics, but the airlines had pretty high requirements. As a budding pilot with good stanine scores, I was told by at least one airline, "You need 10,000 hours of multi-engine turbine transport time, preferably a C135 or KC to even get an application form".

 

[BoeingBoy]

As a budding pilot with good stanine scores, I was told by at least one airline, "You need 10,000 hours of multi-engine turbine transport time, preferably a C135 or KC to even get an application form".

That is the mark of a glut of pilots though.

Jim

 

[will fix for food]

American , and seperately Eagle, just have to provide enough pay and benefits to attract enough new hires to maintain their target headcount. As long as American pays more than the regionals, you willl have a pool of mechanics to draw from. Eagle is currently losing mechanics to the other regionals and now only draws from the schools, so we are in a slightly more difficult position.

BTW, I know merchanics at Skywest that make in the $30's. They have sweet bennies too.

 

[Joe Patroni]

Mechanic shortage? Maybe in the future but the currently, there isn't one. There are plenty of qualified A&P's like myself that turned down our recall because we have moved on to better jobs. I can't speak for anyone else but myself but if I ever turned a wrench on another airplane in my lifetime it would be too soon.

 

[787nightmare]

Mechanic shortage? Maybe in the future but the currently, there isn't one. There are plenty of qualified A&P's like myself that turned down our recall because we have moved on to better jobs. I can't speak for anyone but myself but if I ever turned a wrench on another airplane in my lifetime it would be too soon.

I hear ya.... I know people like yourself too, which I belieeve is what they're pointing to as contributing to the looming shortage. I also believe it should be labeled, "qualified AMTs".
There will always be some a/p sch grads out there-but not what you're wanting to turn loose on a comml airliner.

 

[787nightmare]

Mechanic shortage? Maybe in the future but the currently, there isn't one. There are plenty of qualified A&P's like myself that turned down our recall because we have moved on to better jobs. I can't speak for anyone but myself but if I ever turned a wrench on another airplane in my lifetime it would be too soon.

Delete-dupe

 

[Joe Patroni]

I also believe it should be labeled, "qualified AMTs".

You're right, my mistake.....

 

[787nightmare]

You're right, my mistake.....

Naa, just ad-libbing partner...🙂
I'm sure you know the deal.

 

[tech2101]

Mechanic shortage? Maybe in the future but the currently, there isn't one. There are plenty of qualified A&P's like myself that turned down our recall because we have moved on to better jobs. I can't speak for anyone else but myself but if I ever turned a wrench on another airplane in my lifetime it would be too soon.

Count me as one of that group. I struck for all those that are left out there willing.

I won't be working on any aircraft other than my current co-worker's Piper. I do that for an after-work cold one. B)