Place your bets!

[BigBangTheory]

So why hasn't AMR filed yet? What's Arpey waiting for? Why not in 2003? Or 2004? Or 2005, etc? Why do everything he could do for over five years if he wants to file Ch 11?

If Arpey was in such a rush, why has he waited over five years?

Bankruptcy will probably happen, but wage reductions won't be offered as a way to prevent it. If wages and salaries were cut in half on June 30, AMR would still post a huge loss in 2008 and 2009 unless fuel prices suddenly collapse and return to $2/gal.

This time, of course, there won't be any "give us concessions or we'll file for Ch 11 protection." Concessions won't prevent the bankruptcy.

Instead, you'll wake up one morning this fall and read about the Ch 11 filing.

You ask why? To many assets and cash on hand back in 2003, 2004 and 2005. If I do wake up one morning this fall and read the headlines "AMR parent company of American Airlines files Ch 11" I will quit and not worry about it.

 

[eolesen]

If I do wake up one morning this fall and read the headlines "AMR parent company of American Airlines files Ch 11" I will quit and not worry about it.

That'll show management....

To Bob's comment, concessions might never prevent bankruptcy, but it sure did delay it -- five years and counting beyond the point where all the other airline management teams said "screw the employees, we're filing."

Instead, they kept pensions intact, and got the plans funded to as close to 100% as they've ever been.

Filing anytime now or in the future will definitely suck. But, it won't suck nearly as much as it will for the guys at DL, NW, US, or UA who've been thru bankruptcy already. They already lost the easy stuff that can be taken away.

 

[limit]

That's why now is the time for AA to launch the "Mother of all Fare Wars". NWA,UA,DELTA, and USAIR will be in Chapter 7. AA,CO, and SW can then dominate the industry and bring prosperity back to the airline industry.

Princess give it up.
Nothing personal but this is a stupid idea, and a stupid argument.

 

[PRINCESS KIDAGAKASH]

Princess give it up.
Nothing personal but this is a stupid idea, and a stupid argument.

So,what is your great idea to bring prosperity back to the airline industry? You people need to start thinking outside the box. Nothing personal.

 

[limit]

So,what is your great idea to bring prosperity back to the airline industry? You people need to start thinking outside the box. Nothing personal.

Us people want to make sure when we start thinking outside the box,that the box did not belong to Pandora.

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

It is what it is as you like to say.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

SO, I see you've SELECTIVLY used one of my most popular "sayings".

But why NOT use another (equally) frequent saying of mine(that I created with YOU in Mind)

"Take a DEEP breath,.......and HOLD IT.................UNTIL....... AA goes BK.

(I just hope you don't get.................dillusional................while CHOKING and Turning Blue) :blink: :blink:

 

[luv2fly]

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

SO, I see you've SELECTIVLY used one of my most popular "sayings".

But why NOT use another (equally) frequent saying of mine(that I created with YOU in Mind)

"Take a DEEP breath,.......and HOLD IT.................UNTIL....... AA goes BK.

(I just hope you don't get.................dillusional................while CHOKING and Turning Blue) :blink: :blink:

Tick tock.

 

[Hopeful]

So,what is your great idea to bring prosperity back to the airline industry? You people need to start thinking outside the box. Nothing personal.

Think outside the box? Give that advice to the greedy executives when they continue to accept their PUPS as the airline continues to spiral down.

 

[PRINCESS KIDAGAKASH]

Us people want to make sure when we start thinking outside the box,that the box did not belong to Pandora.

Pandora's box was opened when Jimmy Carter signed the Airline Deregulation Act of 1978. The "Mother of all fare wars" would finally put a cork in the Genie bottle.

 

[mrman]

Pandora's box was opened when Jimmy Carter signed the Airline Deregulation Act of 1978. The "Mother of all fare wars" would finally put a cork in the Genie bottle.

To most of your passengers today you are talking of "the oldend days". This was roughly 35 years ago. Most of your Customers have never flown under the old CAB days. Most of the Americans born today were not alive durring this time.

Today the East German kids never new or experienced Communism. Your talking like that old time Marxist in her rocking chair wishing for better days from a PBS special.

You would think the Legacies could figure out how to compete and treat their people right after 35 years

 

[FWAAA]

You ask why? Too many assets and cash on hand back in 2003, 2004 and 2005. If I do wake up one morning this fall and read the headlines "AMR parent company of American Airlines files Ch 11" I will quit and not worry about it.

No, couldn't be that, since the US Bankruptcy Code contains no maximum limits on assets or cash that make Ch 11 unavailable. Companies can file Ch 11 and eliminate debts regardless of their balance sheet numbers. Just because many managers wait too long doesn't mean companies have to be out of cash to file.

 

[eolesen]

To most of your passengers today you are talking of "the oldend days". This was roughly 35 years ago. Most of your Customers have never flown under the old CAB days. Most of the Americans born today were not alive durring this time.

Today the East German kids never new or experienced Communism. Your talking like that old time Marxist in her rocking chair wishing for better days from a PBS special.

You would think the Legacies could figure out how to compete and treat their people right after 35 years

Technicality... Deregulation was in 1979 -- I don't think the average age of Americans is 29 just yet... nor do I think the average age of the flying public is under 30.

But the rest of your comments are spot on. A lot of the people here bemoaning how bad it also never worked for an airline during the CAB days.

I have no doubt that the legacies know how they'd like to compete, but the real challenge has been finding ways to do so within the confines of workrules and contractual clauses that are 20 and 30 years old.

It took the industry 15 years to eliminate paper tickets, so perhaps there's hope for workrule reform... I'm just not holding out much hope for it at the legacies.

 

[whlinder]

S80 fiasco aside, the fleet issue may be less of an ongoing concern than you'd think.

NWA's been facing the same issue with their DC9 fleet for years. They've had ample opportunity to put that fleet down, yet they determined a depreciated aircraft with higher maintenance costs and fuel burn is still a better option than a more fuel efficient aircraft with the higher cost off ownerships a A319 or E190 would have.

A friend of mine was doing a cost analysis last week, and considered the impact of selling a pickup truck at a loss just to replace it with a subcompact that got better gas mileage. Even if you are upside down on the loan, he figured it would take a 600% difference in fuel economy to make up for taking on the higher cost of ownership associated with the new subcompact than it would be to continue driving the guzzler before it was paid off. That savings target only goes up as you pay the thing off.

I'm not saying that the economics of a F250 vs. a Prius are a one-to-one comparison, but just having new aircraft which are more efficient doesn't mean that you have a cost advantage over someone flying older aircraft. You've got to look at the total cost of ownership before you can make that assessment accurately.

While I certainly agree that the higher cost of ownership of a new plane (or car) often makes little sense vs. the old gas guzzler, as FWAAA has mentioned numerous times Alaska decided to accelerate retiring their MD80s for 738s. And that decision was made back when oil was about half what it is now, though I also realize that AS had the added benefit of realizing an all 737 fleet. Maybe in hindsight AS would rather have not taken delivery of any new metal and shrunk their operation slightly, but they always seemed to be ranked "#2" behind WN in the "who's not going out of business" lists.

How is Alaska's cost-benefit analysis for fleet planning different than NW's and AA's?

 

[Hopeful]

Technicality... Deregulation was in 1979 -- I don't think the average age of Americans is 29 just yet... nor do I think the average age of the flying public is under 30.

Deregulation was signed in 1978...

http://www.econlib.org/LIBRARY/Enc/AirlineDeregulation.html

 

[MCI transplant]

Pandora's box was opened when Jimmy Carter signed the Airline Deregulation Act of 1978. The "Mother of all fare wars" would finally put a cork in the Genie bottle.

<_< ------- Well! Well! Well!----- For once we agree on something! Well wonders never cease!!!