Should U be looking for another code-share partner

1ab

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Aug 21, 2002
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http://biz.yahoo.com/fo/030218/2efbb6a9fa2...e8cbc3d8_3.html
This article pretty much agrees with what a UNITED pilot told me this morning that UA maybe heading for liquidation.
Question is should U look for a new code share partner?
Will the Star Alliance be okay without UA and can U still become a member?
Can Dave kiss and make up with NW or CO to negoitiate code share agreements with them..
How about AA for a code share partner??
 

UnitedChicago

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Aug 27, 2002
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This article was released about a week ago I believe. We debated it over on the UA board.

I pasted my main observation below. Hang in there U's!

You can have the opionion that they will be finished soon, blah blah blah.

But...how is this article anything other than a regurgitation of what's already been reported? That's my point here.

I don't feel this reporter did anything other than pick-up a reuters article and add a snazzy graph. Again...how can you criticize UA for wanting to create a LCC and cite U and Continental as failures...ignoring Delta Express and - hello - United Shuttle? Sloppy.

Time will tell. Stay positive and don't buy in to anything just yet. There's no reason to make any conclusions or turn over and act like it's a lost cause.

And...I'm probably not neutral. But it's people like me that refuse to give up that United needs to see them through this.
 
Aug 20, 2002
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Myriad Faustian? I dated her once!

Hey tbone, UA ain't dead. And 'Dr.Bronner' strangely reminds me of Chainsaw Al Dunlap.

Didja ever wonder why Texas Pacific quietly walked away from US?

Bottom line: UA has too much value to completely disappear.
 

T-bone

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Feb 15, 2003
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Whatkind?, Hey no offense intended. Also I feel UA to be a viable enterprise. While the gist of what I stated may sound far fetched, it's also plausible. So is the possiblity of R.S.A. acquiring UA and foisting pernicious contracts from US as the surviving belligerent. Again no offense intended.
 

T-bone

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Feb 15, 2003
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While the scenario's are myriad. I would think the alliance should be fine.
You know, it's said that politics makes strange bed fellows, and this is exactly the case here. The parties involved only true alliance is to green backs. A faustian deal is far from out of the question.
And let us not forget that Dr. Bronner of R.S.A. is swimming like a shark that's smelt blood around the still warm body of UA.
 

aj04878

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Feb 8, 2003
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Back to the intial question. I in no wish to be insensative, and would like to with my best to everyone at UAL.

However, from a US standpoint a UA liquidation could be just what the company needs. Not only would US aquire much of UALs assests (with the help of RSA). But could then begin an alliance with American, who is desperate more more revenue. Just my opinion
 

PITbull

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Dec 29, 2002
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[blockquote]
----------------
On 2/18/2003 3:04:01 PM UnitedChicago wrote:

This article was released about a week ago I believe. We debated it over on the UA board.

I pasted my main observation below. Hang in there U's!

You can have the opionion that they will be finished soon, blah blah blah.

But...how is this article anything other than a regurgitation of what's already been reported? That's my point here.

I don't feel this reporter did anything other than pick-up a reuters article and add a snazzy graph. Again...how can you criticize UA for wanting to create a LCC and cite U and Continental as failures...ignoring Delta Express and - hello - United Shuttle? Sloppy.

Time will tell. Stay positive and don't buy in to anything just yet. There's no reason to make any conclusions or turn over and act like it's a lost cause.

And...I'm probably not neutral. But it's people like me that refuse to give up that United needs to see them through this.

----------------
[/blockquote]

I agree with you for probably different reasons than you cite.

Again, I repeat, do not look at the obvious. UA is going to survive; and I believe nicer than U.
 

funguy2

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Aug 20, 2002
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1ab:

In the highly unlikely scenario where U acquires pieces of UAL in a liquidation, it would be very dependant on what pieces were picked up by U as to a possible alliance deal.

Would AA codeshare with a U that included an ORD hub. Not likely.

Would AA codeshare with a U that included a MIA hub. Not likely.

Would AA codeshare with a U that included an IAD hub. Maybe.

If UAL were to liquidate, I would have to think some venture capitalist with lots of cash (TPG?) would buy certain UAL in pieces and put it back together with a different cost structure. No airline would have the cash to buy it whole, and even certain pieces (ORD/DEN hubs for example) may be too much for any airline right now. Bottom line, even if its not the United we know today, it will probably be around in some way/form.

If UAL liquidated, Star would go on. They would simply stick with whatever becomes of UA's assets. Plan B would be to steal DL, NW, or CO (probably DL) or stick with US... or Star may It would really depend.

Just my guesses, should UAL vanish completely. But most bankrupt airlines don't. The viable operations live on (see: ATL - AirTran, STL - AA, JFK-DL, MIA - AA/UA, etc).
 

dfw79

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Aug 20, 2002
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I can't remember if I posted this on US Aviation or on Airliners...so I beg your pardon if this is repetition. There are a couple possible ways for this to go with UAL.

First - UAL Survives
Starfish (or whatever it is called) will take over at least 30% of current UAL flying. If it works, it could take over all domestic flying and leave 767/777 flying to only international routes. UAL will be much smaller and in better condition and the U code-share would be even more valuable.

Second - UAL Liquidation / Replacement Code-share partner
Okay...RSA has stated interest in the IAD & ORD hubs for US Airways. I also see US Airways going for the Airbus fleet to immediately replace all 737 aircraft. The 757s may also be of interest to U (not sure of engine commonality), but the 777 & 767 will find a home elsewhere the same as the 74s and 73s. U will also likely try to pick up DEN as a hub and let the rest go. Heathrow will be a bidding war...but I'm sure STAR will want to keep it in the family.

HUB setup. Don't be shocked to see ACA & Air Wisky become US Airways Express feeders in the not to distant future, or at least code-sharing. J4J may effect this some - and I won't even bring up the 146s. LOL However, they will be instant feed...if not DL gets them. After this move U will be able to easily move in and pick up markets out of DEN using a fleet of 320s. PIT will be CVG - US Version. PHL will remain in tact as is. IAD will become a JFK of sorts...providing very limited domestic feed but operate as an international gateway from the #4 O/D market in the nation. CLT will remain as well. ORD is interesting and this is where the code-share thing comes in...next.

NEW CODESHARE. American is going to be sitting in a position of loneliness with the mega SkyTeam/Wings alliance. With U picking up ORD assets I can see a deal work out where U will sell these assets off to AMR in exchange for the STL hub. With American having ORD to themselves - the STL hub is pointless...and U will finally have its hub in the midwest. The US will approve this alliance through certain give backs - MIA, LAX facilities will go to others...Heathrow will be covered by AMR, etc.

LOW COST CONTRACTS. This is probably the biggest thing about the U contracts. Unlike the UAL ones - they don't snap back right away...U is going to be working under these for the next 6-8 years.

That is a rough view on how things could play out - we'll see. Hopefully if UAL does go under, UAL employees are able to get jobs quickly under a stronger U.
 

Light Years

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Aug 27, 2002
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Hopefully US AIRWAYS employees, the thousands that are furloughed, will have jobs with a stronger U. If any transaction occurs because of another carriers liquidation, the employees of U and its WO carriers should get the first positons. Only after that should the company try to accomodate that carriers employees.
 
Interesting theory.

I suppose Delta,Northwest and Continental will all sit on their hands as this unfolds?

Not to mention jetblue,Air Tran, America West and others maybe wanting a piece of the action.

United hasn't given the death rattle yet here you guys are neatly divvying up the carcass.

Funny though, there was an awful lot of indignation on this board over the summer when U was being parted out to NWAC, AMR and others.

Have I missed the press release stating that the pilot pension issue has been resolved to the ALPA's satisfaction?

Is that money from the ATSB backed loans in the U corporate accounts yet?

The last $200 million frm RSA, the money from GECAS..any of that on the ledgers yet?

Counting fowl before eggs are laid,much less hatched is a tad premature wouldn't you agree?