All one has to do is LOOK at the operation that Ornstein orchestrates at MESA.............every Major carrier (outside of US) wants nothing to do with them and even US would like to dump them on a given day. Mesa is probably the worst regional carrier in the nation and has more problems than all the other carriers combined. When Mesa filed for reorganization I for one thought Liquidation would be the next step because most people look at them like a leper and avoid them IF possible. Ornstein has proven he is nothing more than a current day Frank Lorenzo and needs to be banished from the Airline Industry. Whether Mesa can truly 'turn-it-around' is clearly dependent on whether it can shed itself of that egomaniac Ornstein and his own personal agenda.
Boyd Group of Colorado is a major consulting firm. The are right at least as much as they are wrong and they have been mostly right on the RJ issue. The problem with RJ's is the economics. There are way to many small RJ's and as their leases come due and the long term contracts with the RJ operators major partners come due we will see many fewer 50 seaters.
It is up to the Pilots of the majors to not cave on any further Scope relaxation. Management has messed up the RJ issue, too many RJ's just like too many Hubs.
Here is what Boyd group says about the current status of RJs.
All These Airplanes Going To The Desert Are Great Opportunities For Start-Ups
Lots of airliners are being retired. Forget the me-too articles recently that carriers are rushing to the desert to dust off their parked 747-400s. Note to journalists: there isn't any "surging demand" - those are one-off events, not a trend. The North American airline fleets alone are going to be flying over 250 fewer airliners in the next two years, according to Boyd Group International's Global Fleet Demand & Trend Forecast.
But nevertheless, the presence of these dormant airliners has inevitably led to the prediction that now is a great time for new, low-cost start-up airlines. It's another dimbulb conclusion that seems to be a favorite of fringe financial analysts and the usual suspects in academia who are working hard to assure that college grads are totally unprepared for reality.
Those 737-300s, first-generation A-320s, MD-80s, and - importantly - CRJs and ERJs - that are basking in the Arizona sun are there for a reason: they are uneconomic. They're old, they have high maintenance costs, most are probably run-out to a heavy check, some likely are not in compliance with the latest ADs and SSIs. They are not cheap airplanes, They are mostly very pretty junk.
Besides, there really are no "low-fare" airline opportunities out there, anymore.
Selling American Eagle? More of The RJ Conundrum
Media stories are bubbling that AMR might be in the process of trying to sell Eagle. Like, to what, or whom?
Some sort of corporate stock spin-off, maybe. A sale to another small jet provider? Problem is that most of those have too many RJs already. And a long-term AA agreement with such an entity doesn't solve AA's problem of too many small jets and not enough revenue.
A sale of Eagle as an operating stand-alone makes no sense to any buyer. Eagle is a part of the lift for American Airlines. Nothing else. It's a segment of their lift that inexorably is becoming more and more cost-problematic. There are no other airlines out there who need more RJ lift - quite the opposite. And stand-alone RJ flying has worked so well. Ask ExpressJet or Independence Air.
The recent - and quite brilliant - strategy of using Eagle to feed military traffic into the AA DFW hub from places like Columbus (GA), Cheyenne, and Manhattan (KS), will certainly bolster flow revenues. (Military traffic tends to be on high-yield refundable tickets.) But that will not fully offset rising costs of ERJ operations due to fuel and the simple fact the aircraft are getting into more complex maintenance cycles. A day of reckoning is coming. (As it is for the rest of the small jet provider sector.)
The excess regional jet fleet in the US airline industry, particularly as it ages, will become a much higher-profile issue in the coming year. More rapid retirements are in the cards for 2010 - 2011. That will shift the air service patterns in several regions of the nation, and the effects will be seen a lot sooner if oil spikes again over $90.
It's one of the issues that will be covered at the 15th Annual International Aviation Forecast Summit, October 24 - 26, in New Orleans. We'll be looking at all aspects of fleet renewal in the US and the rest of the globe, and how it'll affect airports of all sizes in the US. For more information, and to register, click here.
