Sw's Next City

[Management Guru]

US DOT 3rd Q, 2003. Here's the website http://ostpxweb.dot.gov/aviation/

The only problem with the DOT numbers is that they come from DB1A and DB1B which are based on Form T-100 filings by airlines. So I always use them with a little caution.

It is my understanding that Form T-100 has NOT been a required filing for regionals. Some like American Eagle file their passenger and route numbers, but not all do. So for mid-sized and small airports the numbers are way off. (Someone correct me if I am wrong)

An airport heavy on regional service like Fresno will not have accurate numbers. That usually makes people look at places like FAT as being smaller than they are. The DOT for FAT will show AA and G4 since they file large equipment, Eagle and Horizon also file. but I don't think Skywest has done complete filings for its UAX/DLConn service. I think UA pax through DEN are captured but I don't believe SFO and LAX connections are reported so the UA and DL numbers are not complete.

I haven't gotten my hands on a 2003 monthly breakdown for FAT, but total O&D in 2003 was 1,038,163. June 2004 O&D at FAT was 107,100. So I would think FAT should be higher up your list.

So be careful with those numbers so you don't forget about airports like us.

 

[Management Guru]

I just thought of another quick and dirty check to demonstrate my point.

Lowest ranked airport on your list is EFD. But EFD only has what, 4 COEx flights a day. FAT has a much larger flight schedule. So either the airlines are accepting low load factors at FAT or not all passengers are being reported.

 

[coolflyingfool]

SYR, ROC, COS, ANC, and PIT have to be among the Top 10 and I would think any one would be very profitable for SWA.

 

[LoneStarMike]

Short answer: My picks are RIC and SAV.

Really long answer:

Regarding Richmond, there were two recent articles in the Richmond Times-Dispatch about the city's efforts to lure a low fare carrier to RIC.

Will it ever be cheaper to fly out of Richmond?
Low-fare carriers lure us away, but local officials have a new plan

http://www.timesdispatch.com/servlet/Satel...d=1031776890713

The above article talks about a grant the city has applied for to use for advertising if/when a low-fare carrier comes to RIC.

The next article details the plans.

Details of the marketing plan for a low-fare airline

http://www.timesdispatch.com/servlet/Satel...d=1031776890305

A few years ago, Southwest was really interested in going into Trenton, NJ but the NIMBY's raised such a fuss that Southwest basically said "We don't want to go where we're not wanted" and started looking elsewhere.

Richmond, on the other hand, is BEGGING Southwest to come in and if the city gets the grant they can help advertise that Southwest is there. It seems like a win-win situation.

Also, Southwest has said they want to build up PHL. What better way to do that to that than to add RIC? RIC can't help build up BWI like all Southwest's other new cities in the Northeast did because it's too close. But at 198 miles, PHL-RIC is a perfect candidate for Southwest service and it adds another "spoke" out of PHL.

This data is from the Department of Transportation's Consumer Airfare Report Q3 2003 - the latest figures available. First let's look at some of the short-haul routes Southwest has already announced out of PHL and see what conditions for each city-pair was like last summer.

PHL-PVD - 238 miles 100 daily passengers (approximately 50 in each direction) US Airways was both the market share leader and the "low-fare" leader with a 92.16% market share and an average one-way fare of $326.80. That's EACH WAY. Southwest obviously thinks they can do it cheaper. (and they can)

PHL-MHT - 290 miles 87 daily passengers. US Airways was again the market share leader and the low-fare leader with 90.61% of the market and an average one-way fare of $306.96.

PHL-BDL - 196 miles 117 daily passengers. US was the market share leader with 90.9% of the market and an average one-way fare of $298.82. United Airlines was the low fare leader on this route with 8.63% market share and an average one-way fare of $292.46. So between the two of them US and UA control 99.53% of the market and their average fares are only $6.00 apart. And the average one-way fares in this market are highway robbery.

Now let's look at PHL-RIC. It's 198 miles (about the same as PHL-BDL) and there are 93 daily passengers on the route. US is the market share leader with a 96.38% share and an average one-way fare of $323.00. United is the low-fareleader on the route with 3.26%of the market and an average one-way fare of $291.71.

This route screams for Southwest service.
Throw in a couple of flights to MDW, MHT, PVD and others to either BNA, ISP, Florida or the west and you've got your initial daily flights out of RIC.

If you had 4 daily rountrips RIC-PHL that would put PHL up to 45 daily deparures out of 4 gates so PHL would probably be maxed out at that time until Southwest can get additional gates.

As far as what other cities to fly to out of RIC, here's a map of what cities now have n/s service out of RIC.

http://www.flyrichmond.com/HTML/Flight_Inf...op_Flights.html

Note that the map shows n/s service to both MCO and TPA, but it's Saturday only according to the airport website.

When I read that first article posted above, a couple other things jumped out at me.

"The application even includes letters of support from JetBlue and Southwest Airlines, two carriers targeted by the airport. The airlines wrote that the grant would improve Richmond's chances of landing a low-fare carrier; JetBlue said previously that it might add markets in the middle of next year.

In the application, the airport lays bare how dire its situation is. The loss of passengers to competing airports represents about 34 percent of the core travel base in Richmond and three surrounding counties, up from the 20 percent loss reported in 1999. This includes travelers who normally would fly into Richmond but choose other airports instead."

Southwest needs to get into RIC before jetBlue so they can take advantage of RIC's grant money (if RIC gets it and I believe the decision is coming later this month). Something else I noticed in the article:

"The three Washington-Baltimore airports siphon off 24 percent of the area's travelers, with Newport News and Norfolk each taking a 4 percent share of the market. Raleigh-Durham's airport in North Carolina captures 2 percent."

and later:

"With the addition of new Independence Air this summer, Dulles was expected to draw even more people from the core Richmond market, which includes Hanover, Chesterfield and Henrico counties."

Going into RIC now would enable Southwest to compete somewhat with Independence Air without Southwest actually going into Dulles.

And while Southwest is waiting for additional gates at PHL, why not start start nibbling around in the Southeast where Delta has a strong market share?

That's where SAV comes into play.

I think it would fit into their current system well. Even though it may not have a huge population base, it's enough of a tourist destination that you could generate a lot of traffic from people in other parts of the country (especially the Southeast and Florida) who'd like to visit.

According to the airport website, SAV has nonstop service to 17 cities. Look at the following map (scroll to the bottom of the page) and notice which cities don't have nonstop service.

http://www.savannahairport.com/airlines.php

No nonstop service at all to any city in Florida and other cities in the southeast that WN already serves. Southwest doesn't need to operate at ATL to be able to compete with AirTran and Delta. Southwest needs to figure out which cities in the southeast can support nonstop service to each other without having to go through ATL or CLT to get there. Compete with Delta and US Airways by providing point-to-point service within the south and siphon off their connecting traffic.

Plus a lot of people traveling beteen SAV and these other cities probably drive now. If I'm going to have to pay an average of $150.00 or more each way and suffer through a connection in ATL or CLT just to go 300 - 400 miles, I'm probably just going to drive. But if Southwest comes in and I can get there nonstop and for a fare of $29.00 - $79.00, then I might just consider flying instead. So they wouldn't just be stealing traffic from other carriers, they'd be generating new demand.

Also, Southwest does like to open a new city with a lot of flights, usually 10 - 14 to start. At least 50 - 60% of the initial flights are short-haul and the rest are mid to long-haul. When Southwest opened all those cities in the northeast, (MHT, PVD, BUF, ALB, BDL, ISP, and ORF) they all got at least 7 flights to BWI with the remaining initial flights being to Florida and/or MDW/BNA and/or PHX/LAS.

In the case of SAV, if Southwest were to ever go there, I don't think you'd initially see 7 n/s to any one nearby city. I think you'd see 2, 3 or 4 daily flights to several nearby cities that don't currently have n/s service to SAV and there are many to choose from.

SAV - MCO 255 mi
SAV - RDU 293 mi
SAV - TPA 297 mi
SAV - BHM 338 mi
SAV - PBI 381 mi
SAV - BNA 417 mi
SAV - FLL 422 mi
SAV - ORF 435 mi
SAV - SDF 490 mi
SAV - JAN 520 mi
SAV - BWI 549 mi
SAV - MSY 557 mi

And they don't fly there yet, but SAV - RIC is 431 miles.

Also - from a couple of months ago:

Wednesday, May 19, 2004
Airport Renovations, Expansion
WTOC-TV Ch 11, Savannah (GA)

The Savannah-Hilton Head International Airport is celebrating ten years by making some changes. Not only is the airport getting new carpets and a new escalator, it's are also celebrating a 14 percent increase in travelers from last year. In fact, their April numbers are 19 percent higher than last year.

The airport commission says all this is thanks to an increase in flights. "We do have more seats, you know we've been telling them for years, get us the seats we'll fill the planes, and now all of our pleading and planning has really paid off," said commission spokesperson Lori Griffin.

The airport is also doing a major expansion starting at the end of this year. They are adding two more gates to expand their flight options.

Source:

http://archives.californiaaviation.org/airport/msg30429.html

Two more gates. Hello? Southwest?  

CHS would be another good candidate for Southwest for a lot of the same reasons SAV would (touristy destination and no nonstops to Florida and many other cities in the south) CHS has n/s service to IAH, EWR, LGA, CVG, ATL, DFW, DCA, JFK, IAD, DTW, CLT, PHL, RDU, ORD, and Saturday only n/s service to BOS and MSP. However, I think Southwest would probably wait to add CHS until after CHS has finished construction of it's new 1200 space parking garage scheduled for completion in Fall 2005.

If they announced RIC and SAV at the same time, they could get into RIC before jetBlue and also compete somewhat with Independence Air by retaining RIC traffic that might have driven to Dulles, while at the same time connecting RIC and PHL to help build up PHL, and they could also get going in SAV by taking advantage of St. Patrick's Day traffic in Savannah.

I've never been to Savannah, but I thought I remembered reading that St. Patrick's Day in Savannah was the second largest gathering of celebrants in the US for St. Patrick's Day and that it was a real big deal for the city as far as tourism goes. Kind of like how New Orleans benefits from Mardi Gras. Maybe someone from the area could confirm or deny.

Anyway, I think a late October announcement after they've released Q3 results) for RIC and SAV to begin in mid to late February would be great. After that, just start picking off cities in the Southeast like CHS, GSP, CLT, and GSO - other cities where the dominant carriers are Delta and/or US. Plus, with lots of short haul flights from cities in the southeast to Florida, it helps Southwest build up TPA, MCO, FLL and PBI.

Southwest chooses its battles carefully and that seems like a good strategy for right now considering that US and Delta both are (financially speaking) two of the weaker carriers right now.

Just more of my rambling thoughts on one of my favorite subjects.  

LoneStarMike

 

[ngneer]

I agree completely with LoneStarMike about RIC, but I'm not sold on SAV.

Although it's probably not on SWA's short list, I'd like to put in a plug for SWF (Stewart Airport in Newburg, NY). Although Newburg isn't exactly a bustling metropolis, there's plenty of pax in nearby Westchester County and northern New Jersey. Since SWA apparently isn't going into NYC proper, they can still do a decent business by nibbling around the edges with a presence at ISP and SWF.

 

[richb624]

IF LUV enters RIC or SAV, I doubt if there would be non-stop flights to more than 3 or 4 cities. LUV seems to be becoming a hub-based airline focused on LAS, PHX and BWI. The pattern for smaller airports is to have half the flights to BWI, a couple to Florida, and one to LAS or PHX. There has been little or no expansion in most cities added recently to the system (check ALB, BUF, Norfolk) in recent years. It is interesting LUV has been very conservative about expansion even in large metro areas like Detroit, Columbus or Cleveland where LUV would do well with non-stop flights to 20 different cities. I thought by now we would at least have flights between DTW and BWI, or CLE and PVD.

 

[funguy2]

IF LUV enters RIC or SAV, I doubt if there would be non-stop flights to more than 3 or 4 cities. LUV seems to be becoming a hub-based airline focused on LAS, PHX and BWI. The pattern for smaller airports is to have half the flights to BWI, a couple to Florida, and one to LAS or PHX. There has been little or no expansion in most cities added recently to the system (check ALB, BUF, Norfolk) in recent years. It is interesting LUV has been very conservative about expansion even in large metro areas like Detroit, Columbus or Cleveland where LUV would do well with non-stop flights to 20 different cities. I thought by now we would at least have flights between DTW and BWI, or CLE and PVD.

[post="167889"][/post]​

You're statements here are not very accurate...

1. LUV has recently announced more service from BUF, ALB, and CMH.

2. LUV has agressively moved in on some large metro areas. Their growth, at times, in California, HOU, MDW, BWI, and the BOS/PVD/MHT area could be called aggressive. LUV is careful about who they pick their battles with, and they have seen NWAC go after LCC's time and time again when a move was made on one of their hubs... Reno Air, Sun Country, Frontier are just a few examples. There is no reason for LUV to start a battle at DTW when they have lots of other easier battles they can choose to fight (like BWI, PHL, MCO, MDW, etc, etc)

 

[KALB2]

Yes WN is increasing service to and from ALB, but not to a new non-stop destination. There will be one additional flight to MCO for a total of three. I was hoping they would MDW, which I think could be profitable, since AA's service to ORD is all RJ service now.

 

[richb624]

Richmond may be a better opportunity for Airtran than for Southwest. Four out of the five top markets out of Richmond are New York, Atlanta and DFW. and Boston (none served directly by LUV).

 

[coolflyingfool]

From what I have read from SWA, they plan to open up just 1 city next year(2005), is this what everyone else thinks? And if it is only 1 city, then do you think it could be a PIT or CLT to really put the screws to US? Just wondering......

 

[jimmyd]

I'm betting on Fort Myers as the next city for Southwest. A brand new terminal is opening up in early 2005 which will replace the existing, gate constrained terminal. RSW's traffic is heavily weighted to the Northeast, and Central U.S. I could envision Southwest serving RSW to Midway, Phily, Baltimore, Manchester, Providence, Detroit, Indy, and Hartford.

 

[sfb]

The main problems with RSW are that the traffic is highly seasonal (March and April see about 2.5 times the traffic of September) and there are very limited short-haul opportunities to existing WN markets. FLL, PBI, MCO, and TPA are all too close to RSW to support service, and RSW-JAX isn't a big market. They could probably make it work with flights to BWI, PHL, MDW, ISP, MSY, and BNA, but it just doesn't fit the profile historically. MHT and PVD would get daily non-stops to FLL (and maybe PBI) before RSW.

I think the fate of US Airways is going to (obviously) have a significant effect on Southwest's plans. It's tough to say whether or not PIT fits into their plans, but I think they'd need more gates at PHL to make PIT-PHL work. They certainly would have ample opportunities at PIT with the US Airways hub pulldown, though it is interesting that US has retained service to virtually all WN markets in the Northeast from PIT. I imagine that if US Airways fails, the "one new city in 2005" plan will be discarded, simply because the resulting opportunities will be so attractive.

 

[balloonguy]

Below are the top 113 airports in the continental U.S. The columns are the airport, 3 digit designation, total O&D passengers over a 3-month period (July - Sep, 03) and % of markets served by a low-fare carrier.

All 60 SW airports have an asterisk in front of the airport. All cities that have 50% or more low-fare competition (Atlanta, Denver, Long Beach, Akron, etc.) are highlighted in purple. Airports that do not have 50% low fare competition are in red and presumably would be SW targets. However, some airports would be ruled out (ORD, DFW, MIA) because it is a companion airport to an existing SW airport or its an airport that SW has ruled out (BOS, SFO).
Those cities listed in red would be likely SW targets for future expansion.

Based upon this where do you think SW will go next (and next)?

Airport Totalfaredpax %LFMkts
* Las Vegas, NV LAS 6220990 0.72
* Los Angeles, CA LAX 5903120 0.53
Atlanta, GA ATL 5624270 0.62
Chicago, IL ORD 5041670 0.09
New York, NY LGA 4548110 0.4
* Orlando, FL MCO 4546020 0.75
* Seattle, WA SEA 4211020 0.53
* Phoenix, AZ PHX 3984550 0.78
Denver, CO DEN 3965950 0.68
* Baltimore, MD BWI 3869680 0.86
Dallas/Ft. Worth, TX DFW 3743420 0.22
New York, NY EWR 3710680 0.09
Boston, MA BOS 3567460 0.15
* San Diego, CA SAN 3176670 0.75
* Ft. Lauderdale, FL FLL 3149770 0.76
* Chicago, IL MDW 3065890 0.99
* Oakland, CA OAK 2992300 0.93
New York, NY JFK 2915220 0.76
San Francisco, CA SFO 2854710 0.14
* Tampa, FL TPA 2799230 0.73
Minneapolis, MN MSP 2769540 0.55
* Philadelphia, PA PHL 2758650 0.34
* Detroit, MI DTW 2735070 0.58
Washington, DC DCA 2310990 0.04
* Houston, TX IAH 2306110 0.08
* Portland, OR PDX 2278580 0.65
* San Jose, CA SJC 2137250 0.8
* St. Louis, MO STL 2022990 0.56
* Kansas City, MO MCI 1953770 0.66
* Sacramento, CA SMF 1869960 0.86
* Santa Ana, CA SNA 1868110 0.46
* Salt Lake City, UT SLC 1690690 0.68
* New Orleans, LA MSY 1618640 0.66
* Raleigh/Durham, NC RDU 1531090 0.59
Washington, DC IAD 1473620 0.35
* Indianapolis, IN IND 1423390 0.75
Miami, FL MIA 1404400 0.19
Pittsburgh, PA PIT 1390300 0.22
* Cleveland, OH CLE 1380510 0.45
* Nashville, TN BNA 1374520 0.73
* Ontario, CA ONT 1316890 0.83
* Houston, TX HOU 1277290 0.96
* Hartford, CT BDL 1226770 0.55
* Austin, TX AUS 1176440 0.71
* San Antonio, TX SAT 1166590 0.68
* Providence, RI PVD 1131280 0.74
Milwaukee, WI MKE 1116970 0.32
* Columbus, OH CMH 1112510 0.46
* Albuquerque, NM ABQ 1087510 0.79
* Burbank, CA BUR 1061940 0.92
* Dallas, TX DAL 1016020 0.99
* West Palm Beach, FL PBI 1014590 0.46
Charlotte, NC CLT 986290 0.24
* Reno, NV RNO 925100 0.84
* Jacksonville, FL JAX 912490 0.56
* Buffalo, NY BUF 902390 0.7
* Manchester, NH MHT 808310 0.77
Cincinnati, OH CVG 800850 0
Ft. Myers, FL RSW 777680 0.49
* Omaha, NE OMA 709620 0.67
* Norfolk, VA ORF 707410 0.56
Long Beach, CA LGB 689820 0.87
Memphis, TN MEM 651580 0.35
* Louisville, KY SDF 613080 0.66
* Oklahoma City, OK OKC 571320 0.6
* El Paso, TX ELP 548080 0.74
* Spokane, WA GEG 544850 0.77
* Albany, NY ALB 533320 0.64
* Tucson, AZ TUS 528320 0.55
Dayton, OH DAY 526230 0.43
* Birmingham, AL BHM 514580 0.74
* Boise, ID BOI 484410 0.81
Greensboro, NC GSO 483950 0.22
Rochester, NY ROC 474840 0.58
* Tulsa, OK TUL 465890 0.69
* Islip/Long Island, NY ISP 444850 0.96
* Little Rock, AR LIT 403560 0.72
Richmond, VA RIC 381800 0
Colorado Springs, CO COS 341890 0
Grand Rapids, MI GRR 341060 0.2
Myrtle Beach, SC MYR 315880 0.67
Syracuse, NY SYR 300970 0.37
Des Moines, IA DSM 292160 0.11
Savannah, GA SAV 277570 0.32
Madison, WI MSN 271250 0.06
Portland, ME PWM 233760 0
Pensacola, FL PNS 233320 0.67
Akron/Canton, OH CAK 228380 0.89
Charleston, SC CHS 225650 0
* Jackson, MS JAN 215090 0.64
Wichita, KS ICT 196550 0.43
Atlantic City, NJ ACY 190680 0.97
Burlington, VT BTV 183050 0.46
Knoxville, TN TYS 178330 0
* Lubbock, TX LBB 176010 0.91
Flint, MI FNT 171800 0.93
Greenville, SC GSP 163730 0
Tallahassee, FL TLH 159720 0.71
Huntsville, AL HSV 156120 0
Newport News, VA PHF 150970 0.95
Tampa/Lakeland, FL PIE 149170 1
* Harlingen, TX HRL 145570 0.96
* Midland/Odessa, TX MAF 137780 0.96
* Amarillo, TX AMA 129350 0.88
Sarasota, FL SRQ 123640 0.24
Gulfport/Biloxi, MS GPT 116020 0.7
Columbia, SC CAE 114650 0
* Corpus Christi, TX CRP 101980 0.65
White Plains, NY HPN 87750 0
Palm Springs, CA PSP 68430 0
Mission/Mcallen, TX MFE 65780 0
Daytona Beach, FL DAB 60980 0
Houston, TX EFD 20670 0

[post="162753"][/post]​

What about Northwest Arkansas Regional Airport (XNA)???

 

[AirplaneFan]

Only problem with Ft. Myers is that West Palm Beach has been disappointing

I'm betting on Fort Myers as the next city for Southwest. A brand new terminal is opening up in early 2005 which will replace the existing, gate constrained terminal. RSW's traffic is heavily weighted to the Northeast, and Central U.S. I could envision Southwest serving RSW to Midway, Phily, Baltimore, Manchester, Providence, Detroit, Indy, and Hartford.

[post="169539"][/post]​

 

[coolflyingfool]

With all that is or could be happening in the industry in the very near future, I wonder if SWA will committ to a new city in 2005. IF, and I mean IF ATA were to fail, MDW would need more flights immediately. IF, and I mean IF US were to fail, PHL and the East Coast would need more capacity right away. I wonder if there will be a city in 2005 and only time will tell. Just my thoughts.......