Sw's Next City

[jimntx]

I agree that everyone is going to adopt a "wait and see" attitude for the time being. A friend of mine who flies for ATA said the company denied the MDW rumor, but if you look at the 8-K they filed with the SEC it says, "As indicated in our recent SEC filing, ATA is busy restructuring its finances. While engaged in that effort, we are not abandoning Chicago-Midway, nor are we canceling any flights."

Immediately below that is the "forward-looking statements" disclaimer that basically says we reserve the right to call do over and do just the opposite of what is stated here.

Why should anyone commit resources to an unknown market right now when two known markets (MDW and PHL) may become available within the next 6 months?

 

[coolflyingfool]

Well, the MDW market gets 12 new non-stops on OCT 31. Just announced today, Aug 31, SWA is beefing up its longer hauls out of MDW. SWA added 2 n/s to LAX for a total of 5 daily, 2 n/s to OAK for a total of 5 daily, 1 n/s to TPA for a total of 5 daily, and 1 additional n/s to MCO for a total of 4 daily. It looks like SWA might be trying to help ATA make up its mind about MDW. SWA very rarely will announce new flights just 60 days before start. Usually announcements of new flights are done 90 to 120 before start.

 

[funguy2]

LUV's "sudden" addition of MDW flights probably is not all that sudden... For one, LUV has said for years it would add MDW flights when the terminal was complete... well here we are.

Furthermore, given ATA's troubles, it makes sense that LUV sends a message to anyone considering acquiring ATA or their MDW leases, that LUV will make it hard on them.

I think this is just another solid move by a solid company.

 

[MAH4546]

Well, the MDW market gets 12 new non-stops on OCT 31. Just announced today, Aug 31, SWA is beefing up its longer hauls out of MDW. SWA added 2 n/s to LAX for a total of 5 daily, 2 n/s to OAK for a total of 5 daily, 1 n/s to TPA for a total of 5 daily, and 1 additional n/s to MCO for a total of 4 daily. It looks like SWA might be trying to help ATA make up its mind about MDW. SWA very rarely will announce new flights just 60 days before start. Usually announcements of new flights are done 90 to 120 before start.

[post="174462"][/post]​

The PR didn't mention where flights are cut. I don't know about other routes, but FLL-MDW is going from 5x daily to 3x daily. The South Florida market (PBI and FLL) is one where Southwest hasn't seem to have had that much success. Considering the size of the market (sixth largest in the US in 2003), one would think that Southwest would have a more sizeable pressence. I blame the region's very image concious consumer demographics for Southwest's lack of service to the region. AA recently passed WN as #2 at FLL, and new service this year by US and B6 will likely mean WN will become #5 at FLL.

 

[SWAFA30]

Considering the size of the market (sixth largest in the US in 2003), one would think that Southwest would have a more sizeable pressence. I blame the region's very image concious consumer demographics for Southwest's lack of service to the region.

[post="174535"][/post]​

I would venture that Southern California is pretty image conscious too and we seem to do pretty well out there. I'm just guessin here, but I think it might be more about being able to get the oh so fashionable folks in FLL and PBI where they really want to go and where a whole lotta them they really want to go ain't Islip, Long Island. ISP is great for the population base that lives on the Island, however ISP is not an acceptable alternative for people who wish to travel in or out of Metro New York City. PHL is the only major northeast destination from PBI or FLL that is not a secondary or thirdary(is that a word) airport. How many non-stops a day does jetBlue have from JFK to south Florida?? Unless and until WN gets into a "real" New York airport, the south Florida market will remain stagnate. Just my 2 cents.

 

[MAH4546]

I would venture that Southern California is pretty image conscious too and we seem to do pretty well out there. I'm just guessin here, but I think it might be more about being able to get the oh so fashionable folks in FLL and PBI where they really want to go and where a whole lotta them they really want to go ain't Islip, Long Island. ISP is great for the population base that lives on the Island, however ISP is not an acceptable alternative for people who wish to travel in or out of Metro New York City. PHL is the only major northeast destination from PBI or FLL that is not a secondary or thirdary(is that a word) airport. How many non-stops a day does jetBlue have from JFK to south Florida?? Unless and until WN gets into a "real" New York airport, the south Florida market will remain stagnate. Just my 2 cents.

[post="174659"][/post]​

That is incorrect saying South Floridians don't want to go to Islip. South Florida is Islip's single largest O&D market, with over 1,100 passengers per day. And it is not just because of the Southwest effect, this has always been a pretty big market. Southwest's PBI/FLL-ISP service isn't an alternative to the NYC airports, it gets South Floridains to Long Island and visa-versa. That right there is a huge market.

With regards to the image concious thing, you are very correct in how LA is very image concious, but there are some other things to consider...

...Southwest has been in the region for a long time. They are new to South Florida.
...South Florida is 5.1M people. The LA region is over 20M.

With regards to the jetBlue question, this winter they will have 34 daily flights from NYC (JFK and LGA) to South Florida. In total, nine airlines will operate approximately 125 daily flights between South Florida and the New York City area.

 

[Doc]

U's flight are full out of PHL what are the load factors for LUV out of PHL I don't think that PHL is going as Herb had planed with U's new go fares they seem to be working.........???????

PHL may not be as easy as BWI

 

[SWAFA30]

Didn't mean to imply that nobody wants to go to ISP, rather that the number of FLL or PBI to ISP passengers is finite and much smaller than the number who would want to travel to JFK or LGA. Why SWA has not gone after the ISP-SoFla market in a bigger way I don't know. With only 4 gates....only so much expansion is possible but I think ISP is only running somewhere between 25 and 30 dailies...so they could shoehorn a few more flights into the schedule. Conventional wisdom has always been that when a seemingly ripe market is being "ignored" it is because there are better opportunities being pursued elsewhere. Perhaps that is the case in this situation.

That is incorrect saying South Floridians don't want to go to Islip. South Florida is Islip's single largest O&D market, with over 1,100 passengers per day. And it is not just because of the Southwest effect, this has always been a pretty big market. Southwest's PBI/FLL-ISP service isn't an alternative to the NYC airports, it gets South Floridains to Long Island and visa-versa. That right there is a huge market.

With regards to the image concious thing, you are very correct in how LA is very image concious, but there are some other things to consider...

...Southwest has been in the region for a long time. They are new to South Florida.
...South Florida is 5.1M people. The LA region is over 20M.

With regards to the jetBlue question, this winter they will have 34 daily flights from NYC (JFK and LGA) to South Florida. In total, nine airlines will operate approximately 125 daily flights between South Florida and the New York City area.

[post="174673"][/post]​

 

[wwtraveler99]

U's flight are full out of PHL what are the load factors for LUV out of PHL I don't think that PHL is going as Herb had planed with U's new go fares they seem to be working.........???????

PHL may not be as easy as BWI

[post="174725"][/post]​

Your right it won't as easy but it will happen.

PHL loads are north of 80% and break efven os around 62%.

So I think LUV will be alright in PHL.

 

[WNjetdoc]

Your right it won't as easy but it will happen.

PHL loads are north of 80% and break efven os around 62%.

So I think LUV will be alright in PHL.

[post="174762"][/post]​

Philly is doing great according to the company. I is the fastest growing station that we've EVER opened.

Im not saying what is going to happen with U, nor do I care. I can tell you that SWA doesn't care what U does, we will grow as we see fit.

 

[Whadayano]

Between Spirit, U, and B6 looks like FLL will be tough this winter--and I think DL and AMR added some too. So why stay put in the middle of a fare war? Cut back a bit, let everyone else cut each other up, come back when the playing field is a little emptier, and saner. B6 will have 23 dailies FLL-JFK/LGA alone, fer cryin' out loud--why does U want to put its fragile self into that meatgrinder? WN is playing it smart.

 

[richb624]

Rather than adding more flights to FLL and other cities- where it competes with low fares out of the 3 NYC metro airports, why not serve routes with high fares out of NYC. Cleveland, Raleigh, Kansas City, Norfolk and Detroit come to mind.

 

[MAH4546]

Between Spirit, U, and B6 looks like FLL will be tough this winter--and I think DL and AMR added some too.

Delta is adding fourteen dailies and eight new non-stop destinations, including markets Southwest has totally ignored - Louisville, Birmingham, and Norfolk. American Airlines' winter FLL schedule is not known yet, but, yes, they are planning new routes and frequencies.

And there is also airTran. In addition to their non-stops to Atlanta, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Flint, and Biloxi, they are adding non-stops to Dayton, Rochester, Pittsburgh, Akron/Canton, and Dallas.

So why stay put in the middle of a fare war? Cut back a bit, let everyone else cut each other up, come back when the playing field is a little emptier, and saner. B6 will have 23 dailies FLL-JFK/LGA alone, fer cryin' out loud--why does U want to put its fragile self into that meatgrinder? WN is playing it smart.

[post="174960"][/post]​

Fare war or note, the roughly 120 daily flights between Miami and New York City go out full during the winter on a consistent basis. While airlines are advertising these low fares, do a search for late December or the Thanksgiving holidays and find a lowfare...you won't. Fares area already going into the high-$400s.

Added to that, there is a lot of last-minute travel and business travel on these routes and it is America's most traveled airline route, and you have a route that makes money, even though fares are low and compietition is high.

 

[bwipilot]

One factor about FLL--it's a lousy ATC airport. FLL has three runways--but is operated as if it only had one. Hence, not a smooth running airfield to blindly throw flights into. Takeoff delays of >20 minutes are common--even without large banks of flights by any airline.

 

[mrman]

Would luv to see WN take over some of those DL gates at DFW with flights to LA, LAS, MDW and BWI