Make NO mistake that this Was an AMR/BK by Design !!!!!!!!
AMR knows very well, that at this stage within the Industry, that they have to do "this thing" to perfection.
AA has a Looooooooong history of "falling in a bucket of Shite", and emerging wearing a NEW SUIT !!!!!
Trust me, Delta and US Airways etc. know this all to well !
Since they voluntarily filed, yes, it was by design. They could have waited longer or filed alot sooner- but they came to the realization nothing more could be gained by waiting... and the change in executives apparently at the request of the BOD signalled they had to do what was necessary to protect AMR's long term ability to reorganize.
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AA has been one of the masters of marketing... but the challenge has always been that circumstances SURROUND AA could change to the point their reorg would be in danger. I have never doubted that AA itself would be unable to find the will to reorganize. Labor is still the biggest issue to confront... every airline has dealt w/ huge morale issues during BK/reorg. The question is how quickly AA can move from the "cutting" phase to rebuilding.
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Yes, DL and US are very aware of the threat that a rejuvenated AA will be.... and ANY company is going to work to maintain its competitiveness.
The biggest loser in a successful reorg will likely be US because they might lose one more opportunity to grow - and with 3 strong megaplayers again, US will be marginalized further.
But as I've noted, UA is particularly vulnerable.... they will have the highest costs in the industry after AA restructures - and no one knows what it will ultimately cost UA to successfully integrate all of its labor groups since none of that has happened yet. Even if they take the US approach to keeping both groups separate as long as possible to save money, there will be labor problems.
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Also, DL is engaged in one of the most aggressive cost reduction programs any airline has undertaken since the earlier 4 BKs of the last decade (DL, NW, UA, US). It is likely that DL will maintain its cost competitiveness relative to the rest of the network carriers - they have long been very good at cost control - but they will also use their relative financial strength and stability to seek out further strategic initiatives to move revenue from other carriers and to gain a competitive advantage - whether it be by internal growth or mergers and acquisitions.
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If AA can get through the 1113 process w/o a complete meltdown of its operations, the chances are very high they will be able to reorganize and then the competitive advantage swings back to being AA and UA - which is what has been going on for decades.
