This is "HARD" to say...

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

A couple of notable items here folks, about DL.

They're buying 777-200LR Worldliners(this means Asia), (announced ATL/Seoul)

Announced ATL/Dubai, and ATL/JHB

CEO Jerry Grinstein says "NO MERGERS, or acquisitions !!

With the 777-200LR,and getting into China(somehow), they "could" cover the globe effectively from ATL.

I'm getting MORE convinced by the Minute, that DL will "go it ALONE" no matter what UAL/CO? does.

???????

NH/BB's

One thing they WILL NEED, is a solid regional feeder !

 

[Ch. 12]

One thing they WILL NEED, is a solid regional feeder !

That may be more difficult than getting rights to China from OKC.

 

[SoftLanding]

One thing they WILL NEED, is a solid regional feeder !

Domestic feeder? How about the one low cost short-haul in their back yard?

Yeah....AirTran Holdings (AAI). Think about it...makes sense.


SoftLanding

PS (Don't know about Delta's pilot contract issues 🙂

 

[WorldTraveler]

Thank you for posting this, NHBB. Nobody seemed to want to broach the topic of all this international expansion and I thought it would be so unbecoming to boast about what I predicted. Nonetheless, the moderators will quit sending me my commission checks if there isn't some activity on this forum so we've got to come up with something to say. After all, it is perfectly normal for an airline to add 10 or more transoceanic flights per year - and to do so while improving its unit revenues and reducing its costs. It's really no big deal because it's done all the time in the airline industry.

Oh, NHBB. What does it do for you to see DL's operation in ATL on the verge of getting more east Asian routes from ATL by 2008 when DL gets its China route than AA has from DFW or UA has from IAD - or even AA from ORD! And to think they will do all of this with a measly fleet of 10 777s? Of course, DL will be operating 777s with 2 engine types and will add PW's to the mix when they pick up UA's 777 fleet along with its transpac routes so all this engine commonality thing must be overblown - or DL is demonstrating again that it doesn't know how to run an airline...And DL serves something like 3 times more European cities from southern hicktown ATL than AA serves from all of its gateways? Amazing, huh?

I would never boast but just thought I'd mention these tidbits in passing.

 

[aafsc]

Don't pat yourself on the back just yet. Opening up new cities is an expensive undertaking. Add to this the fact that European flying is very seasonal (just ask PA and TW) you may just find that this expansion is not all it's cracked up to be.

 

[Fly]

You don't want to pat yourself on the back????? ummm, yes you do

A depth of intelligence that goes well beyond the press releases. ©

fyi - I remember another (no longer with us airline) that tried this "piss on the wall and see what sticks" approach that Delta is trying. But of course, we've all seen your tactic too (you piss on the board and duck when things are bad and don't post). Maybe you actually are the decision maker at DL. (if so, I'm tired of paying $$$ for the use of miles.....can you fix that for me?)

Anyways.............good luck Delta, your f/a's have attitude and your NEW route structure is nothing to brag about. (but I like the uniforms) 😛

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

Thank you for posting this, NHBB. Nobody seemed to want to broach the topic of all this international expansion and I thought it would be so unbecoming to boast about what I predicted. Nonetheless, the moderators will quit sending me my commission checks if there isn't some activity on this forum so we've got to come up with something to say. After all, it is perfectly normal for an airline to add 10 or more transoceanic flights per year - and to do so while improving its unit revenues and reducing its costs. It's really no big deal because it's done all the time in the airline industry.

Oh, NHBB. What does it do for you to see DL's operation in ATL on the verge of getting more east Asian routes from ATL by 2008 when DL gets its China route than AA has from DFW or UA has from IAD - or even AA from ORD! And to think they will do all of this with a measly fleet of 10 777s? Of course, DL will be operating 777s with 2 engine types and will add PW's to the mix when they pick up UA's 777 fleet along with its transpac routes so all this engine commonality thing must be overblown - or DL is demonstrating again that it doesn't know how to run an airline...And DL serves something like 3 times more European cities from southern hicktown ATL than AA serves from all of its gateways? Amazing, huh?

I would never boast but just thought I'd mention these tidbits in passing.

'''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''

First off(WT) DL won't be getting ANYTHING from UAL.

Second,(just like JFK)(think DL to ANYWHERE there is an airfield on the other side of the Atlantic), if AA wanted to fly to seoul, they would have done so long ago !!!

And as aafsc said........."all that European flying is SEASONAL, and EXPENSIVE"

Be happy..WT..with DL's(possible)success.
BUT always remember one thing.....(Like in the car rental business), AA is HERTZ !!
Enough said !!!

NH/BB's


Ps,

Check your Trousers World Traveler.......I think you've experienced PREMATURE EJACULATION !!

 

[chucky]

Don't pat yourself on the back just yet. Opening up new cities is an expensive undertaking. Add to this the fact that European flying is very seasonal (just ask PA and TW)

panam and twa are history...get over it.

 

[WorldTraveler]

'''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''

First off(WT) DL won't be getting ANYTHING from UAL.

I’m going to save this one.

Won’t it absolutely frost you if DL ends up with a home-grown Asian route system from ATL than is superior to anything AA has and then turns around and buys UA’s access to Asia from ORD and SFO?

You did hear that Glenn called Jerry 18 months and Jerry responded in his best Russian, “Nyetâ€. Translated that means we’ll be picking up the pieces from you in a couple years but you’re on your own now, pal.

Second,(just like JFK)(think DL to ANYWHERE there is an airfield on the other side of the Atlantic), if AA wanted to fly to seoul, they would have done so long ago !!!

Except they didn’t manage to build an alliance with a carrier that has turned DFW-ICN into KE’s most profitable route, like KE did with ifs fairly young service to ATL.

Did you get that? DL develops good relationships with its partners and helps them develop new routes and then puts its own aircraft in on the route so both partners win. ATL-JNB was South African’s most profitable route but they were stupid enough to join Star so DL has a ready made route dropped in their lap. Now, KE and DL have developed ATL-ICN and BOTH carriers are adding service. DL adds 4X/week service with its own aircraft while KE adds 4X/week 744 service for next summer’s peak season in addition to its daily 744. And DL has managed to do this with a TINY fleet of 8 777s. Just think what AA could do with a little foresight and something like 50 777s.

And as aafsc said........."all that European flying is SEASONAL, and EXPENSIVE"

Come on, this was last year’s routine and it didn’t work then either. DL managed to report a profit margin as good as AA by flying to all those off the wall destinations as AA did by flying to its safe, well-served big cities in the US, Europe, and Japan.

Besides, DL’s Skymiles program and its employees’ pass benefit are a heck of a lot more valuable than AA’s.

Be happy..WT..with DL's(possible)success.
BUT always remember one thing.....(Like in the car rental business), AA is HERTZ !!
Enough said !!!

NH/BB's
Ps,

I guess if you want to think of yourself as a premium carrier, you’re entitled to do so. But DL outscored AA in the most recent JD Powers survey. Maybe AA’s perception of itself and what customers think isn’t totally harmonized.

Check your Trousers World Traveler.......I think you've experienced PREMATURE EJACULATION !!

Maybe… but I didn’t need to take a pill to make it happen, old man.
Ham

 

[whatkindoffreshhell]

Is this the same Jerry Grinstein who stood by for YEARS while Leo Mullin spent $20billion that took DL ???

The same guy who tolerated th absurdity of "Song" ??

The former railroad CEO who couldn't foresee the future congestion and meltdown that containers of Asian imports would do to his company?

Corporations that keep dismal incompetent executives like Jerry Grinstein and Jake Brace deserve what they get.

 

[artiefufkin]

One thing that bothers me.

I hope this doesn't turn out in the "long run" to be a Pan Am situation where Delta runs away to International routes and concedes domestic service to the lower cost providers.

You know how that turned out. Are we in for another decade of pretending Southwest doesn't exist?


When they emerge they need to take on Airtran/Southwest and Jetblue head on in their own back yard.

 

[artiefufkin]

"The same guy who tolerated th absurdity of "Song" ??"

I follow DL very closely. If I had to pick the two misconceptions about Delta's business track record it would be the conventional wisdom on Song and on Mullin.

Let's get this straight. Song had much lower costs (fact) and led to mainline Delta having lower costs. Song had higher customer satisfaction rates (fact) than Delta mainline and led Delta as a whole to score near the tops in the industry in that area. Song was sent into Jetblue markets. Jetblue piled capacity into these same market and saturated the market so much so that they lost money themselves despite the fact they had all the advanteges of a new start up airline. Was Song perfect? No. The 757 is just too large for many markets. Delta finally said, look lets incorporate what's good about Song into mainline and it will give us more flexiblity in moving the right size aircraft around. All in all Song was a "win" for Delta.

 

[DLFlyer31]

DL managed to report a profit margin as good as AA by flying to all those off the wall destinations as AA did by flying to its safe, well-served big cities in the US, Europe, and Japan.

Purely because DL undertook the most rapid domestic contraction of any legacy. DL's financial performance this year is purely driven by domestic profits....most of the international is a money loser right now. You've even posted the numbers that support this.

While some of these international routes have long-term potential, many of them will fail. The next economic hiccup and you can kiss a lot of these routes goodbye. DL knows this, but they are managing for the short-term.

 

[DLFlyer31]

One thing that bothers me.

I hope this doesn't turn out in the "long run" to be a Pan Am situation where Delta runs away to International routes and concedes domestic service to the lower cost providers.

You know how that turned out. Are we in for another decade of pretending Southwest doesn't exist?
When they emerge they need to take on Airtran/Southwest and Jetblue head on in their own back yard.

This could definitely happen. DL is already talking about having %50+ of its revenue come from international.

DL's got some real problems domestically that they have yet to face. The short term solution is to yank a ton of capacity out of the domestic market, but a long-term solution hasn't been developed.

The only really strong hub is ATL where FL can't grow too much due to lack of gates. CVG and SLC are both weak and will always rely heavily on connecting traffic. JFK is a good O+D market and international market, but it's not a domestic hub.

Take a look at CO. While CO is a strong performer, they've gotten themselves into a similar situation. They have an international route structure that drives revenue, but domestically they are struggling. EWR isn't optimal as a domestic hub. CLE is too small. IAH has potential, but is heavily infiltrated by WN (at HOU), which limits the yields of domestic traffic.

A signficant economic downturn could leave both DL and CO in very rough shape if they become too imbalanced between domestic and international revenue.

 

[flyhigh]

Much like throwing darts at a dart board blindfolded, you'll eventually hit a winner. ATL-DXB...less than 10 PDEW, that's a lot of connecting pax to accomodate. Now, are they relying on CO to connect pax on DL vs. what is going EK which is a lot! As a pax, EK's service would be my choice.

Seoul...again, unless they're counting on the Disney crowd to fill the bus, not sure there's more than 20 PDEW. JNB makes a lot of sense on the other hand. ATL is the capital for Black America. Tourism alone makes it sensible. I'm not sure these moves are truly about long term success rather than trying to seize today's opportunity.

The lack of a 100-seater option is a big problem for DL. Weak secondary hubs need to be evaluated...especially SLC. JFK costs have come down some, but not enough. Actually surprised they went with ATL vs. JFK for DXB.

And I wouldn't put much stock in the "NO MERGER" statement by Gerry...he's leaving. The heir apparent seems to be Whitehurst. Given the right deal, I'm not so sure he'd make the same statement.