jetz, you are a wise man. I am the epitome of your problem. Five years ago, I flew IAD-SFO on B fares for $1800. Now, I fly IAD-OAK on S fares for $300. Five years ago, I flew IAD-LHR/BRU/CDG on C fares for $5000. Now, I fly to Europe on cheap coach fares for $500-600. (More and more companies are following mine and forbid business class fares.) While there will always be a market for high fare customers, it will continue to shrink with the growth of the LCCs. When you sell a commodity, the margins naturally shrink. Look at the PC market. For the first dozen years when design, functionality and reliability were different among manufacturers, margins were above 40% as customers focused on quality. But as Intel made all machine similar, the PC became a commodity and margins fell to 25% and then further to 16-18%. And the company that was most efficient (Dell) became the market leader and continues to gain market share. The LCCs will continue to do this to the legacies until they become more efficient or disappear.
As for the pilot profession, I don't think it's as bleak as you describe. Certainly pilot wages will come down to earth. I think a large part of the problem was unrealistic expectations that were created by ALPA and the unnatural way in which pilot compensation was structured. I think you will agree that pilot wages in general got out of hand at the end of the 90s boom as the unions followed human nature and grabbed what they could. But the seniority system also created problems. The senior pilots were paid dramatically more than the junior, clearly out of proportion to their increased value due to increased experience. That was fine with the junior guys as long as they got to get the senior wages later (and the huge pensions that came with it). Meanwhile, the express pilots got peanuts. Fundamentally, all were doing the same job with similar skills, yet wages were all over the place. Such a system can only be maintained through monopoly powers, such as unionization (or AMA limits on medical school accreditation in the case of doctors, who have a strangely similar system). Over time, pilot wages will average out in the $100,000 range. Ridiculously high widebody rates will disappear (unless ALPA tries to continue the insanity) and RJ rates will increase as fewer people enter the profession. (Remember that lots of these guys become pilots on the dream of being a $250,000 777 captain, working 15 days a month, with a huge pension. As those things disappear, the glamour will tarnish.) It will never be what it was, but it won't be a bad job either.
I think that one of the hardest things that my post boomer generation will have to deal with is early career peaks. In my own case, I've put together a strong position in a successful company and I am very well paid. In fact, some might argue, overpaid. But I have probably reached by peak earnings at 38. If I make it into senior management, I will make more, but the odds are against it. So for the next 20+ years of my career, I will make essentially what I do now. Financially, it's a pretty good deal as I make quite a bit. But psychologically, it's tougher as one must work harder just to stay in the same place. As the workplace becomes more market oriented, this will become the norm across most industries. The airline industry will be no different.
