Ual Lobby‘s For Industry Consolidation

USA320Pilot

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May 18, 2003
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Last week both US Airways and United Airlines publicly spoke to the benefits of industry consolidation in an apparent attempt to influence the federal government to help the beleaguered network airlines complete against the explosive growth of the LCC’s.

On October 28, Dave Siegel hinted in a speech to the Washington Aero Club that there may be corporate combinations between network airlines when he said, "Again, I don't have all the answers, but I do sense that increased cooperation, coordination, and potentially consolidation between and among network airlines must be another source of strength through enhanced efficiencies, in both marketing and operations."

Interestingly, three days later in a speech United lobbied for consolidation as well.

Jeffrey Stanley, manager of economic analysis and regulatory affairs at United, speaking at The Future of the Airline Industry conference at Washington University in St. Louis yesterday said, "A series of events changed the competitive landscape of the airline industry, including the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks, a sluggish economy and the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, Stanley said. Those factors have helped the growth of low-cost carriers," he said.

Those carriers face plenty of issues, he said, including security, international aviation and air traffic management. But the most important challenges they face are the change in the industry's competitive environment and getting the federal government to recognize it, Stanley said.

"If things stay the way the are now, there will be several Chapter 7 (bankruptcy liquidations) down the road, and that's not good for anyone," he said. The most feasible solution to the situation is consolidation in the domestic airline industry, he said.

For more information on Stanley’s comments see the following story:

See Story

With reports that US Airways senior officers have been regularly meeting with their United counterparts, is it coincidental the business partners are publicly speaking about consolidation? Meanwhile, on Thursday United CEO Glenn Tilton told employees in a recorded message the Chicago-based airline is seeing “meaningful†results from its domestic alliance with US Airways.

At this point it’s unclear how the two companies would integrate, but in lieu of a traditional merger could the companies seek a combination similar in scope to Air France and KLM, where there would be a temporary holding company and two subsidiaries? This unique concept would permit the companies to integrate, but remain separate business entities in the short-term until at some point in the future they could merge.

The benefit of consolidation for mature industries is to create economies of scale to reduce costs through integration. There are hundreds of ways to reduce cost, but with both airlines having bankruptcy tools available, could they have significant advantages over their peers to restructure their business model?

For example, while in Chapter 11 United could reject its LaGuardia facilities and move their operations to US Airways' LaGuardia terminal. The suggested LaGuardia integration would create economies of scale, reduced facility expense, and improved productivity where employees could service each others aircraft.

Moreover, with US Airways rejecting its Pittsburgh hub and neighboring facilities and United capable of rejecting any agreement, the two companies have a unique opportunity not available to other network carriers to complete a combined restructuring without prejudice, which would be an enormous cost advantage to permit the carriers to compete with the LCC's in the short-term.

Interestingly, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported today that yesterday US Airways offered to maintain a hub in Pittsburgh for another year if Allegheny County and the Airport Authority allow the airline to operate under its current lease until then.

Could the Arlington-based airline just have increased the time it needs to decide whether or not it wants to keep Pittsburgh based on how United’s reorganization unfolds and what could occur with a potential corporate combination?

For more information on US Airways’ offer see the following story:

See Story

Regardless, if the companies pursue an integration option similar to Air France and KLM, then when economics permit, the work forces could be combined and other integration steps completed to have a true merger.

Could this be a concept the parties are discussing since US Airways CEO Dave Siegel senses that there needs to be "increased cooperation, coordination, and potentially consolidation between and among network airlines?"

In conclusion, US Airways and United have tried to merge multiple times, the airlines are seeing “meaningful" results from their alliance, US Airways and Lufthansa began their alliance last week, and US Airways will enter Star alliance early next year.

With both companies publicly lobbying the government to permit some form of consolidation with informed sources stating the companies are now having high level face-to-face meetings, are we finally on the verge of the airlines announcing a unique corporate transaction (UCT), a UCT derivative, or a merger that is financed by the ATSB and RSA?

Again, its unclear how the proposed corporate combination would proceed, but with both airlines now lobbying for consolidation from this observer’s perch we could see some form of a deal announced in the near future.

Regards,

Chip
 
For those naysayers and those who like to "shoot the messenger", why would Stanley have said, "If things stay the way the are now, there will be several Chapter 7 (bankruptcy liquidations) down the road, and that's not good for anyone," he said. The most feasible solution to the situation is consolidation in the domestic airline industry, he said.

If Stanley's comments are true, who are the most likely network airlines to liquidate?

With United's manager of economic analysis and regulatory affairs now publicly endorsing corporate combinations and stating the most feasible solution to the situation is consolidation in the domestic airline industry, who could United integrate with and not have antitrust issues, regardless of the "failing carrier" guidelines?

AMR, the tri-lateral airline group of Delta, Northwest, and Continental, or its business partner US Airways?

Regards,

Chip
 
Here's the bottom line...both companies are in trouble and Stanley hinted they could liquidate, unless the airlines find a way to combine -- to significantly reduce costs -- that would permit sustained profits that would allow them to compete domestically with the LCC's.

That's how Siegel is going to get the CASM "south of 9 cents."

Regards,

Chip
 
Comparisons to the AF and KLM situation are definitely interesting and worth looking at. This would permit gradual integration over many years instead of trying to merge two entities. I would suspect, if this notion ever materializes, things such as reservations, frequent flier partnerships and club facilities would be the first to be streamlined. Then, APO issues would be consolidated. Then, as aircraft leases expire over time and employees quit/retire, one of the two companies (most likely US) would ultimately disappear.
 
Chip Munn said:
With reports that US Airways senior officers have been regularly meeting with their United counterparts, is it coincidental the business partners are publicly speaking about consolidation?

...

Could the Arlington-based airline just have increased the time it needs to decide whether or not it wants to keep Pittsburgh based on how United’s reorganization unfolds and what could occur with a potential corporate combination?
In order:

No, because the two carriers have been in a code-share agreement for the better part of a year. One would expect two airlines involved in such a relationship to have meetings at the highest level (indeed, it is safe to assume that such meetings would take place in Elk Grove or CCY since it's not as if anyone from either carrier actually has to pay for transportation). Of course, if my informed sources from the NWA crew room in MSP report having Bethune on a flight, I'll be sure to write about the upcoming NW/CO "UCT" :shock:

Or, could it possibly be that the Arlington airline, having pissed off the county and state that PIT sits in finally come to the realization that their "crown jewel" at the other end of the state is about to experience yields falling thru the floor and now suddenly wants to maintain a monopoly at the other end of the state (realizing that no other geographically suitable city with equal or greater O&D traffic is going to have anything to do with them after the PIT debacle)?

You decide.
 
Clue:

Maybe it would be better to think strategic and long-term.

In the Dow Jones Business News column titled Government Needs To Acknowledge Airline Changes, Stanley said, "On the cost side, the network carriers have to deal with wage and overcapacity issues, Stanley said, along with shrinking hubs and reducing flight schedules."

See Story

As I said before, the Pittsburgh hub negotiations are being held hostage to United's exit financing and until the corporate combination's final form takes hold, there will likely be no agreement regarding Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh has very low O&D traffic and is unprofitable due to the airports significant debt service, therefore, why operate Pittsburgh if you can have Chicago?

Regardless, Stanley's comment in the article above, that there are "overcapacity issues, along with shrinking hubs and reducing flight schedules," accurately describes Pittsburgh in today's economic climate.

Regards,

Chip
 
Just one more point for discussion...

If United receives a loan guarantee for $2.0 or $2.5 billion, the federal government will then be on the hook for about $3.0 to $3.5 billion for the business partners.

Thus, the Bush Administration will have a personal interest in the success of both United and US Airways and will want to protect the taxpayers money. Furthermore, the OMB loan guarantee guidelines give the ATSB broad shaping powers, which could influence discussions between interested parties.

With United now publicly stating that "there will be several Chapter 7 (bankruptcy liquidations) down the road" and presumably United and US Airways the two weakest network carriers, to protect their investment, could the ATSB agree with United that "most feasible solution to the situation is consolidation in the domestic airline industry and permit loan guarantee and other funds to be used for some sort of corporate combination?"

Me thinks so…

Regards,

Chip
 
Chip,

I'm not an employee, just a lowly US1. So I am only going to repeat what many of your fellow employees say to you over and over again.

ENOUGH IS ENOUGH!!! Stop with the postings on UTC/ITC already. Don't you have better things to do with yourself than to constantly repeat YOUR specualtions? Let the moderators of this website post the news articles about US and UA and let the members read them without your input.

Use the internet what is was designed for..................PORN..............you might be a bit happier!!


:p
 
Chip Munn said:
Thus, the Bush Administration will have a personal interest in the success of both United and US Airways and will want to protect the taxpayers money.
No, the only way they'd be interested in protecting the taxpayers money is if Haliburton, Bechtel or Brown,Kellog and Root owned sizeable stakes in the two airlines. :rolleyes:

Have you considered what the other US airlines would do? The lobbying machines would go into overdrive,and you can bet that every route authority and mail contract awarded either carrier would be challenged,appealed and roadblocked at every turn.

Not to mention what effect the US government having sizable stakes in 3 US airlines (Forgot about America West?) would have on the "Open Skies" talks with the EU.
 
AKA_trvlr64,

I enjoy reading Chip's UCT commentary. This is a free board and everyone is allowed to express their ideas. If you don't like what is being written, then you don't have to read the postings. Chip adds much to this board.
 
AKA_trvlr64 said:
Chip,

I'm not an employee, just a lowly US1. So I am only going to repeat what many of your fellow employees say to you over and over again.

ENOUGH IS ENOUGH!!! Stop with the postings on UTC/ITC already. Don't you have better things to do with yourself than to constantly repeat YOUR specualtions? Let the moderators of this website post the news articles about US and UA and let the members read them without your input.

Use the internet what is was designed for..................PORN..............you might be a bit happier!!


:p
I'm a US1 too and completely disagree. Folks need to think outside of the box to solve this problem. Granted, sometimes Chip beats the same drum a bit too much even for my tastes, but some sort of deeper alliance may be in the cards going forward. US and UA would be negligient if they weren't at least discussing it!
 
Chip Munn said:
Here's the bottom line...both companies are in trouble and Stanley hinted they could liquidate, unless the airlines find a way to combine -- to significantly reduce costs -- that would permit sustained profits that would allow them to compete domestically with the LCC's.

That's how Siegel is going to get the CASM "south of 9 cents."

Regards,

Chip
Nice twist on the quote Chip. He never hinted at US or UA going Chapter 7. He said there could be Chapter 7s, but never even hinted they would be major carriers.

And once again you showed your true colors about saying UA could move to the US terminal in LGA "to acheive economies of scale by having each other work the the other carriers aircraft". I am sure it would, as would having UA people work US aircraft in SAN, SFO, SEA, and the like. So you continue with your diatribe to see everyone else's work contracted out and hitting the streets except your flying.

Once again, your own postings have showed that labor costs are not the issue. The issue is the lack of management on the revenue side of this airline, and overhead costs throughout.
 
CHIP: IN YOUR OPINION, WOULD A UAL AND US TYPE OF MERGER LIKE KLM AND AIR FRANCE BE THE BEST WAY TO ACTUALLY HELP BOTH OF THE CASH STRIPPED CARRIERS US AND UA? AND WHAT KIND OF EFFECT WOULD YOU THINK IT WOULD HAVE ON STATIONS LIKE ABE AND AVP WHERE IT IS MAINLINE EXPRESS?
 
Chip Munn said:
Clue:

Maybe it would be better to think strategic and long-term.

Pittsburgh has very low O&D traffic and is unprofitable due to the airports significant debt service, therefore, why operate Pittsburgh if you can have Chicago?
*sigh*

Perhaps it would be better to think realistically?

Bronner held up a mere $250 million or so until all unions on the US property were hammered down to the bone, including trashing the ALPA pension. In essence, this insured that he would make back his slice of the pie if nothing but aircraft and slots had to be liquidated. Now, not having said a word about it post-bankruptcy, we are to believe that this trustee of public money is going to spend it to multiply into a more risky investment? Or, are we to believe that the government wants to see a UCT go thru? Let's bear in mind that even if the government wanted that to happen, United has far more influence on the Hill that U could ever dream of.

Let's talk about Chicago versus Pittsburgh. You make two large assumptions here: that more solvent carriers would not outbid U on any UA assets in ORD (and it would happen that way in the event of any UCT before UA exits Chapter 11) and that the LCCs would not immediately seize the chance to enter ORD (it's a known fact, for instance, that Jetblue wants to get into the Chicago market--which would do to yields in ORD what LUV is going to do in PIT).

Finally, let's keep in mind that in the likely event that UA indeed receives ATSB financing and exits Chaper 11, they are far more likely to be buying U than vice-versa. It should bother you that Bronner would probably take $500 million for his U stake. Were UA to do that, they would probably only really want some of the European and Carribean flying from PHL and the Shuttle. The remaining U assets would probably be parked, auctioned, or generally ignored.