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On 10/8/2002 10:39:23 AM avek00 wrote:
avek00 says:
At least US has most of its duck in a row. To the best of my knowledge, UA has not obtained ONE firm concessionary offer from a workgroup, creditor, lessor, or vendor.
Captainron says: just because you have not heard the details of UALs restructuring, it does not mean that it is not happining as we speak, remember ALL parties truly have a vested interest in seeing UAL restructure outside of BK. Especially lessor's, creditors, vendors etc. as far as US having all its ducks in a row, we will just have to see what LUV and JetBlu do.
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avek00 says;
US Airways - A proud member of the Star Alliance, and America's domestic carrier of choice, with hubs in PHL, CLT, DEN, LAX, IAD, and ORD.
Captainron says: Seigel, BK court, most analyist all seem to think that the regional model is where US Airways is headed as it shrinks into hopefully a profitable company. With LUV and JETBLU, DAL, and to a lesser extent AMR now targeting US Airways they will have an extremly difficult time maintaining even a much smaller operation, so as the network becomes smaller and smaller UALs greater network efficency will compel some of US Airways assets to be fragmented to UAL as the indusrty consolidates. I believe UAL will take the long haul network flying from PHL,BOS,CLT, while US maintains the Carribean, and North South feeder. UAL will provide a guaranteed revenue stream that we currently have with our other feeder carriers.
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avel00 Says:
Delta Air Lines - The world's first truly global airline, with hubs in ATL, CVG, SLC, DFW, LHR, NRT, and SFO.
Captainron says;
Well as little as three months ago I might have reluctantly agreed this was a possibility. DAL had the strongest balance sheet outside of LUV, but O what a difference a few months makes, the reality is UAL WILL be the first large network carrier to restructure, DAL is fighting a war it cannot win in the long run unless it restructures rather quickly, I am quessing it is two to three months behind UAL and AMR if things do not change. And when we invade IRAQ all of these companies will be in exactly the same position.
So if DAL or anyone else does not restructure their business all bets are off. Especially in light of the fact that DALs proposed code share will not be approved as structured. And all of the revenue real or imagined with the UAL/U code share comes from DALs top line.
Fact is some form of industry consolidation is ahead of us, most likly it will be modified code shares and some asset sales, only because no large network carriers have the financial where with all to do a merger, and the percieved benifits far outweigh the risks I would also argue that DAL being the first truly golbal carrier is wrong then and now, seems UAL had that distinction many years ago. Big deal, If management cannot manage really does not matter.----------------------------------------
avek00 says:
Of course, the picture changes altogether if UA stakeholders finally realize the gravity of the company's situation...
Captainron says;
I agree and believe me everyone does.
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