What Happens When The Next Recession Hits?

[enilria]

I know this is a depressing topic, but I find that those in the airline industry tend to see it as in the worst economic downturn in its history. While this is true, the flip side of the coin is that the general economy outside the industry is experiencing growth and is clearly not in a recession.

So, with all the pain in the airline industry today, imagine what might happen when (not if) the overall economy takes a tick down. One thing that we forget is that the industry is setting record load factors every month, partially due to low fares, but also due to strong disposeable income among leisure travelers. During recessions leisure travel falls off along with business travel.

Not speaking specifically about US Airways, is the shake-out we keep waiting for inevitable when the next recession adds to existing revenue woes?

 

[PHL]

another recession, even a blip of one like we had in 2000-2002, will level the playing field of US Airlines. Frankly, there are too many. I'd predict at least 2 to fail in another downturn. Maybe more in the event of a sudden economic depression like another large terrorist attack.

I'm not wishing anyone out of a job, but the reality of it will bite a big group of people on the next downturn.

 

[usairways_vote_NO]

another recession, even a blip of one like we had in 2000-2002, will level the playing field of US Airlines. Frankly, there are too many. I'd predict at least 2 to fail in another downturn. Maybe more in the event of a sudden economic depression like another large terrorist attack.

I'm not wishing anyone out of a job, but the reality of it will bite a big group of people on the next downturn.

[post="247434"][/post]​

I don't think its so much a case of too many airlines per se as it is a case the cost of fuel, mismanagement and airline pricing.

 

[whlinder]

How would you propose they price?

 

[autofixer]

Typically, an increase in the price of oil preceeds a recession in the USA. I am amazed at how strong the economy is remaining at present. It is just a matter of months until the oil steam roller catches up to a winded economy. Europe is already in recession (It seems they always are). Germany just announced a 12 % unemployment rate.

 

[a320av8r]

Hopefully our POR will be fully implemented by then and we will be a survivor.
😉

 

[700UW]

Just like the last POR?

 

[libertybell]

Next Recession? The way things look for the middle class I would say that we never really left this one!

 

[usairways_vote_NO]

How would you propose they price?

[post="247472"][/post]​

For profit

 

[a320av8r]

Just like the last POR?

[post="247488"][/post]​

Different management.

 

[Bear96]

Gee Bob -- sounds like you're back to your old self!

🙂

 

[usairways_vote_NO]

I agree

Then what?

[post="247512"][/post]​

First off Mr Piney I never said I could run the airline and I never said I was smarter then anyone else posting here. I post things here that may be or seem to be insulting and I definitely complain and pick apart but mostly I am just being sarcastic and having fun at others expense. Hopefully some may enjoy my sarcasm. But you do they same thing or are you meaning to tell me you don't insult posters here? Shall I do a search?


I have posted many times what I think USAirways needs to do is change business plan and to manage the company. They didn't and still haven't come up with a business plan to survive. Their style have been to try baby steps to become a "LLC" then run to employees for more handouts when it doesn't work. How about cutting all workers wages to nothing would that put them in black? Probably now wasn't there numbers crunched before on that very subject? If you know they airline industry 1. You cannot shrink to profitability 2. The problem isn't the wages and benefits.

So in answer to your question no the only choice isn't to lower wages and seek other non wage productivity improvements.

Who says there isn't any upward pricing power? The airlines? They come and take from the pockets and take food off the table of the employees only to turn around and lower prices the next day even as fuel prices rise. I seem to remember you so vigorously defending your right to fight anyone and anything that takes food off your table up to and including breaking the law and you are surprised the employees and so negative and morally broken from a company that will use the courts to rape them of everything they have while rewarding upper management and not doing what really needs to be done to fix the problems at hand? Up to and including getting people in here that will stop blaming employees for all their problems, live up to the promises they make and bring back a sense of pride to the work force along with a viable business plan not these stupid Band-Aid's they keep applying.

Did I have the specific answers ? No.. Doesn't mean I can't be a critic does it? Do you have the answers and don't try the old lower wages answer. For that matter does anyone really have the answers here? It is a message board for Gods sake not a board room.

 

[whlinder]

UVN, do you propose that all tickets be sold at a yield that at least equals the CASM for the seat the passenger would fill?

 

[usairways_vote_NO]

UVN, do you propose that all tickets be sold at a yield that at least equals the CASM for the seat the passenger would fill?

[post="247520"][/post]​

Whlinder do you propose now that the wages and benefits have been extracted from employees the airline is fixed? If not why?

 

[usairways_vote_NO]

Answer the question

[post="247542"][/post]​

You can't handle the truth

I see I ruffled some feathers which tickles me pink. I gave you my answer now it's your turn don't clam up now and you can even yell if you like.

p.s. I am on ignore remember? So it's ok to not answer and pretend!!