What Would You Do

[700UW]

Actually it is $1.9 billion

 

[insp89]

Actually it is $1.9 billion

I stand corrected. Thanks 700

 

[usairways_vote_NO]

USAirways vote NO:

Sorry I don't get it. I'm not A320 Capt, or whomever.

If chapter 11 isn't in the cards in your opnion, what is?

Where will this company be in 1 year. Still operating? Liquidated?

I didn't mean to imply that you were 320 just that your question is the perfect question 320 is looking for to put is his on.

 

[jimntx]

and for the same reason should say a 20% reduction in flights of a competitor result in more fares for UAIR does not the situation quickly reverse itself where say that competitor is cutting flights, still losing money while UAIR picks up just enough revenue to force it into the black..

And, if some other airline cuts flights by 20%, you are assuming that all the other airlines are going to stand by and let UAIR pick up all the abandoned business? Or, are you assuming that the flights cut by the unnamed airline are all money-makers and worth picking up? Seems to me that if I decide to keep route A and abandon route B, there would be a reason for that choice.

so summer of 05......... i think oil will be sub 33. but not sub 28. hence the trend is downward, the overall economy will stall due to another few intrest rate hikes but regain its footing and continue pushing towards 3% growth of gdp.

Don't count on it. The chairman of ExxonMobil said just recently that we will never see $1.50/gal gas again. That's $35/bbl oil. According to this morning's NY Times, there are signs that the "recovery" may already be stalling.

Pressure on SWA from not only them in there base cities (mco/dfw) (yeah i know swa goes to hobby) but there might be a war among the discounters at some point again allowing UAIR to recover even further.

??? What about PHX, BWI, and LAS? SW's operations in those 3 cities are not exactly small. Also, don't understand combo of DFW and Hobby. DFW is in Dallas, and SW doesn't fly to that airport. They use DAL (Love Field). Hobby is in Houston. How would a price war among the LCCs benefit UAIR when it's prices are already higher than the LCCs prices in just about every market? Seems to me it would just widen the gap further.

now if oil rises (terror incident, iraq war ect) or another (god for bid) event occurs then all bets are off at that point i would suspect multiple fillings and multiple shutdowns to occur but that is worst case.

I suspect that your "worst case" is more likely to be the "most likely" outcome. Oil may not rise, but I don't think it is going to come down as far as you predicted. Unless, Tom Ridge is lying for the benefit of the re-election campaign, a terror incident is probably going to take place (or, at least, be attempted) between now and November. Unless we do a Vietnam on Iraq--issue a press release that we won and withdraw our troops--we are going to be in Iraq for a long, long time.

 

[ACrazy8]

I wish I knew everything....

 

[bobcat]

SpinDoc

Realistically, where in the world would they find replacements that are security cleared and trained that quickly? Just in Res alone, if everyone stopped taking calls for just 10 minutes it would be total chaos not to mention no one at the ticket counters or gates for any period of time, there would be a riot. No FAs no flights would be able to take off and no mechanics to fix the problems quickly no take offs.

I don't know if the government would ever let a strike happen but if it would it would probably be fatal for our beloved US Airways.

 

[funguy2]

javaboy:

Your idea that UAIR could make it through is plausible if UAIR's management had any vision. Thus far, they have shown no to little vision. Positive Cash Flow only delays the inevitable... Profit is the real winners... TWA took 10 years to die from Ichan's wounds. Over that time, there were ups and downs. Towards the end, it was looking like TWA would make it through the Karibu agreement... Of course, 9/11, and the aftermath would have likely been the end of TWA, had the sale to AMR not been worked out prior.

In that vain, if you equate Wolf's lack of UAL merger in 2000 as the "wound", we are already 4 years in UAIR's death. If the "wound" is 9/11/01, then we are approaching 3 years.

I wish my outlook for UAIR was better... but its not... At the end of the day, UAIR still has:

1. 2 of the worst O&D traffic hubs (CLT and PIT)
2. 1 of the highest cost hubs (PIT)
3. The industries highest costs
4. The industries highest mix of Express to Mainline
5. More Express carriers than anyone
(put 4 and 5 together and you get a horribly incosistent product)
6. Huge debt load

I don't think UAIR makes their loan covenents this winter... And I think that spells trouble. I don't know what will happen, but I know it won't be good.

By the way... My prediction was that UAIR busts its loan covenents by October, and something happens... Analyst Jamie Baker is predicting the loan covenents get broken in January... So while UAIR may be having some positive cash flow months now, the prognosis for the fall doesn't look very good at all.

 

[delldude]

javaboy:

Your idea that UAIR could make it through is plausible if UAIR's management had any vision. Thus far, they have shown no to little vision. Positive Cash Flow only delays the inevitable... Profit is the real winners... TWA took 10 years to die from Ichan's wounds. Over that time, there were ups and downs. Towards the end, it was looking like TWA would make it through the Karibu agreement... Of course, 9/11, and the aftermath would have likely been the end of TWA, had the sale to AMR not been worked out prior.

In that vain, if you equate Wolf's lack of UAL merger in 2000 as the "wound", we are already 4 years in UAIR's death. If the "wound" is 9/11/01, then we are approaching 3 years.

I wish my outlook for UAIR was better... but its not... At the end of the day, UAIR still has:

1. 2 of the worst O&D traffic hubs (CLT and PIT)
2. 1 of the highest cost hubs (PIT)
3. The industries highest costs
4. The industries highest mix of Express to Mainline
5. More Express carriers than anyone
(put 4 and 5 together and you get a horribly incosistent product)
6. Huge debt load

I don't think UAIR makes their loan covenents this winter... And I think that spells trouble. I don't know what will happen, but I know it won't be good.

By the way... My prediction was that UAIR busts its loan covenents by October, and something happens... Analyst Jamie Baker is predicting the loan covenents get broken in January... So while UAIR may be having some positive cash flow months now, the prognosis for the fall doesn't look very good at all.

My prediction was that UAIR busts its loan covenents by October, and something happens... Analyst Jamie Baker is predicting the loan covenents get broken in January...

so we spend all summer mentally prepping for dire eventualites by october...and now...we live to die another day??
when we going to get last rites??
this is wonderful news for those sitting on the edge of their chairs.

 

[to much time to quit]

Groucho:

In 1 year, US will be operating with the lowest
labor costs in the industry and will merge with
America West to have a true nationwide network
to feed both coasts, the Caribbean, and European
international routes. After UA goes away in
January 2005, US will embark on an expansion
that will be possible because of the lowest costs
and productivity in the industry. By 2006, US
will have lower costs than Southwest and Jet Blue
and profit sharing will restore the wage cuts that
were accepted by the unions and enacted in
September of 2004. It will be nice to finally
dethrone Southwest as the low fare king.

Hey, do you think you can pm me the numbers for wednesdays powerball drawing? Or maybe who will win the superbowl, then I can go to Vegas and bet the bankroll! Better yet whwn we're all laid off we can meet and you can share some of that wacky weed your smokin.

 

[Fly]

Groucho:

In 1 year, US will be operating with the lowest
labor costs in the industry and will merge with
America West to have a true nationwide network
to feed both coasts, the Caribbean, and European
international routes. After UA goes away in
January 2005, US will embark on an expansion
that will be possible because of the lowest costs
and productivity in the industry. By 2006, US
will have lower costs than Southwest and Jet Blue
and profit sharing will restore the wage cuts that
were accepted by the unions and enacted in
September of 2004. It will be nice to finally
dethrone Southwest as the low fare king.

So what you suggesten Masta?

 

[GroundedBoricua]

Groucho:

In 1 year, US will be operating with the lowest
labor costs in the industry and will merge with
America West to have a true nationwide network
to feed both coasts, the Caribbean, and European
international routes. After UA goes away in
January 2005, US will embark on an expansion
that will be possible because of the lowest costs
and productivity in the industry. By 2006, US
will have lower costs than Southwest and Jet Blue
and profit sharing will restore the wage cuts that
were accepted by the unions and enacted in
September of 2004. It will be nice to finally
dethrone Southwest as the low fare king.

It would be a lovely senario for us here at U, but we all know that ain't going to happen. but hey it kept my hopes up for at least 6 seconds while i read it. :disguise:

 

[mweiss]

So what you suggesten Masta?

Well, ya know, it all comes down to the same question it always has been.

When will people (as a group) decide that the industry is not so glorious that they're willing to work for crappy wages?

I mean, lord knows I have a great deal of love for the airline industry. But, geez, I gotta eat. I can't fathom wanting to do the job that badly.

Then again, I can't fathom flying from ISP to BWI through PHL at three times the price of the nonstop, either. Guess it takes all sorts... :blink: