While DL and WN grow, AA continues to cut future growth

[FWAAA]

At the beginning of 2015, new AA (AA+US) had 983 mainline planes, and by the end of 2015, that count will be down to 941.

Meanwhile, DL and WN continue to grow at substantial rates. WN traffic and capacity is up about 8% year over year, while DL traffic and capacity is up about half that much so far in 2015.

At AA, 2015 capacity is expected to be about 1% higher than in 2014.

Low cost airlines generally grow, while high-cost airlines shrink. Except, of course, for HPdbaAA.

 

[swamt]

At the beginning of 2015, new AA (AA+US) had 983 mainline planes, and by the end of 2015, that count will be down to 941.

Meanwhile, DL and WN continue to grow at substantial rates. WN traffic and capacity is up about 8% year over year, while DL traffic and capacity is up about half that much so far in 2015.

At AA, 2015 capacity is expected to be about 1% higher than in 2014.

Low cost airlines generally grow, while high-cost airlines shrink. Except, of course, for HPdbaAA.

And SWA wanted to grow even more for 15 and 16 but the investors barked a little and SWA caved to them and pulled back the planned larger growth.  Pretty sure it will still happen, maybe in the later years of 17-20.  Pretty sure, thx to the AT purchase we will be growing thru 2020 and it will more than likely fluctuate between 4-8% YOY each and every year.  Just can't get the aircraft fast enough from Boeing.  Up to 50 used aircraft so far and still have numerous people all over the world looking for more.  
   I am also thinking once the new AA gets settled in and dump any aircraft they don't want will start their growth again.  Once they get settled in and iron everything out then they will be a better competitor for Delta and UAL.  I have always said to give AA the same amount of time out of BK and merger complete and AA will surpass Delta on alot of the numbers...

 

[Overspeed]

FWAAA,
If your numbers are correct the new AA is going to fly almost the same ASMs with fewer aircraft. Would that equate to lower operating costs? More profit?

 

[jimntx]

FWAAA,
If your numbers are correct the new AA is going to fly almost the same ASMs with fewer aircraft. Would that equate to lower operating costs? More profit?

It will if there are fannies in those seats.  Available Seat Miles merely tells you the maximum capacity of the airline--how many seats going x number of miles.  It's meaningless if those seats are empty when the plane leaves the gate.  There's an airline which is making much of its increased capacity; however, rumor has it that a lot of those available seat miles do not have fannies in those seats as they fly around the country.  That seriously and negatively affects RPM--revenue passenger miles.  (Hint:  That's where the money comes from.   )

 

[WorldTraveler]

June traffic results for the big 4 are attached.


all have very healthy LFs in the mid 80s from AA's 85% to DL's 88% - doesn't look like a whole lot of empty seats.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/united-reports-june-2015-operational-210000007.html
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/american-airlines-group-reports-june-120000531.html
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/southwest-airlines-reports-june-traffic-123000313.html
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/delta-reports-financial-operating-performance-130000440.html

feel free to share if you have solid info on where those empty seats are....