DL to suspend SEA-HND Flights

[WorldTraveler]

seats, ASMs, and frequencies are all changed by similar amounts and they all show the same trend that UA is pulling down more capacity vs. DL for Jan 2015 vs 2014 between the US and NRT.

given that HNL to both FUK and NGO are flown only once a day at most, adding a couple days in a month does add a fairly significant amount of capacity.

we're not talking about ATL-LGA with a dozen and a half flights per day.

 

[eolesen]

Again, lots of flowery descriptors, and no actual stats to put it into real perspective...

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

Again, lots of flowery descriptors, and no actual stats to put it into real perspective...

+1
And really, is anybody surprised?

 

[eolesen]

No, but seriously, what's the fear in putting a pair of numbers side by side, instead of just picking and choosing a sliver to latch onto, and writing about the sliver with no context?...

 

[WorldTraveler]

It is truly baffling how E has been able to pull schedules and post schedule comparisons in the past and yet seems completely paralyzed at being unable to find the schedules or data that are under discussion, esp. since the topics have been discussed on sites like airlineroute.

It really is easy for me to make my points when they are based on facts which is precisely what this discussion is about.

Regarding NRT to the US, for Jan 2015 compared to Jan 2014, AA is flying the same amount of capacity. DL is flying 4.3% fewer seats on 4.9% fewer flights and 4.8% fewer ASMs while UA is flying 7.3% fewer flights, 8.6% fewer seats, and 7.9% fewer ASMs.

The percentage reduction in the number of seats UA is offering from NRT to the US is exactly twice what DL is offering.

Within Asia, DL is offering 27% fewer flights with 31% fewer seats and 26% fewer ASMs while UA is offering 33% fewer flights, 54% fewer seats, and 54% fewer ASMs.

Yet, the big 3 US carriers are flying more capacity from the US to East Asia as a whole, let by AA which is adding 29% more seats compared to about 6% for DL and 4% for UA.

It should be clear that DL and UA both continue to shift capacity from NRT to other points in Asia, with the biggest reductions in the NRT capacity coming from beyond NRT flying.


Regarding specific transpacific markets from NRT, DL changes are:
ATL down (downgauge)
DTW up (upgauge)
HNL up (upgauge)
JFK down (downgauge)
LAS up (upgauge)
LAX down (downgauge)
MSP up (upgauge)
SFO (cancelled)

And for UA
1 SFO cancelled, moved to HND
HNL down (downgauge)
IAH up (increased freq)
SEA cxld
If you factor in DL’s winter seasonal cancellation of SEA-HND and UA’s start of SFO-HND, DL and UA have comparable MAINLAND 48 changes to Tokyo service (both airports) with each operating 1 flight from the US to HND while AA and UA each have an additional frequency via their JV partners.
DL still has more capacity beyond NRT to Asia and has cut it less and also is increasing NRT and Japan flying to US island destinations.

Further, AA has cut more flying from Japan on its own metal over the past 3 years than either DL or UA have.

The biggest conclusion that can be made is that UA is working to eliminate its losses on the Pacific during the winter – something it has done for years while DL is slowing growing its overall market presence in Asia while continuing to move capacity out of NRT and maintain their local Japan presence. AA, OTOH, is content to continue to subsidize its Asian operations to the tune of several hundred million dollars per year in an effort to maintain and grow its market presence despite having not been profitable for years.

The data confirms that DL and UA continue to adapt to changes in the market while responsibly growing their overall Pacific networks and their Pacific profitability will very likely validate their strategies.

Finally, all of this data has to be seen in the context of a very strong dollar which particularly reduces the demand for leisure travel, exactly what a carrier such as AA that is trying to grow its market presence in Asia needs. DL and UA have a higher percentage of premium travel between the US and Asia as evidenced by their average fares while AA is filling planes using leisure passengers - most of which originate in Asia.


Factor in the deepening crisis in Argentina and Venezuela and the weakening Brazilian economy compounded again with the stronger dollar relative to the Real and Peso, it will become harder and harder for AA to use its Latin America revenues to subsidize its int'l growth elsewhere.

 

[Kev3188]

 

Regarding specific transpacific markets from NRT, DL changes are:
ATL down (downgauge)
DTW up (upgauge)
HNL up (upgauge)
JFK down (downgauge)
LAS up (upgauge)
LAX down (downgauge)
MSP up (upgauge)
SFO (cancelled)

LAS?

 

[WorldTraveler]

yes, DL operates flights from NRT to LAS on an occasional basis. Appears to be 3 days worth in January. I believe it coincides with major trade shows. based on the numbers it looks like it is a 777.

note also that DL's system capacity increased as a result of the 777 reconfigs.

It is precisely part of DL's fleet strategy of adding seats to aircraft and balancing premium vs. coach cabins that has allowed DL to increase capacity where it makes sense to do so based on the type of aircraft that are used.

 

[Kev3188]

NW ran it too.
 
Where'd you find that? Not seeing it in the normal spots.

 

[WorldTraveler]

check the first full week of January.

 

[eolesen]

It is truly baffling how E has been able to pull schedules and post schedule comparisons in the past and yet seems completely paralyzed at being unable to find the schedules or data that are under discussion, esp. since the topics have been discussed on sites like airlineroute.

I could post all that, but why should anyone do your cites for you?

 

[WorldTraveler]

Uh, I could ask the same thing of you. I made a statement about the capacity changes in general, you claimed that there wasn't detail, and I have now posted the exact details which support the statement that I originally made.

More significantly, it validates exactly the strategies that DL and UA have been known to be pursuing while showing that AA continues to pour capacity into the market which they will likely heavily have to subsidize.

IOW, there is nothing in the numbers and details that I posted that are any different from the strategies that have been known all along.

The only difference that has taken place over the past few months is that economies in Latin America are weakening, competition is increasing, and the dollar is strengthening, all of which will cut AA's ability to subsidize its int'l growth with profits from Latin America while at the same time the leisure component of travel from Asia could be a whole lot softer.

 

[topDawg]

screwed up 

 

[topDawg]

NW ran it too.
 
Where'd you find that? Not seeing it in the normal spots.

 

DL8819 operates Jan 5th, 9th, and the 10th. 777-200ER. 
 
Delta will run ad-hoc NRT-LAS flying when these big trade shows/conventions happen.  

 

[Kev3188]

Thanks, Dawg.

 

[WorldTraveler]

check the first full week of January.