FWAAA said:
Nobody knows just how much debt UAL is gonna have when (and if) it emerges from Ch 11, but it is very likely that its debt level (as a percentage of revenue) will be at least as high as that of AMR.
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OK, my numbers were very general, but I'm just trying to get in the ballpark to make a point that is factual. That point is that AA will have MUCH more debt to service than UAL once UAL emerges from BK. That's the whole point of BK.
Don't get me wrong. BK has many draw backs attached to it. Just ask anyone who ever filed for personal BK.
But much like CAL who restructured twice through the courts, for many years after they enjoyed a CASM advantage due to lower labor AND lower debt to service. Hence they have been in a better position to weather the storm of the last 5 years.
And by the way FWAA, you are wrong to think that no one knows how much debt UAL is going to have post BK. I assure you that management, JP Morgan, and Citigroup do indeed know.
Just look at NWA today, with their strongest BK warning to date. A year ago many were saying that they were one of the strongest legacies out there. Guess what? They are now facing the reality of a liquidity problem because they have LARGE debt coming due that needs to be rolled over, and nobody willing to put up the money. This is EXACTLY what pushed UAL over the edge. And DAL is next in line. This is not a problem unique to UAL. We were just the first, (actually the second. Ref. USAir) and many other companies were banking on our failure and some relief on fuel prices which didn't occur.
For the record, I hope AA continues outside of BK. Both because I have friends who work their (would hate to see them give up what our employees had to give up), and because I believe UA will have a CASM advantage over AA if they don't restructure in court. Let's be clear on this... It is best for UA if nobody else goes through BK.
But to think that UA is going to whither on the vine is "pie in the sky" "wishful thinking" and "non-sense" on the part of our competition.