1st Q Numbers look great!

[does this plane go to paris]

It's amazing how WN continues to make a profit by simply offering convenient transportation from Point A to Point B, and the rest of us keep trying to sell the "experience" of air travel for a higher price. We've been around longer than WN; so, WN must be wrong, mustn't they?

So true and and so beautifully stated.  No wordy dissertations, just the plain simple facts. PRASM is way above their peers and summer travel is looking fantastic per GK.

 

[jimntx]

To my WN friends...
Sorry I managed to drag WT into the conversation.  I'm thinking of starting a thread on nuclear fission; so that we may all get several pages of his expertise in that arena--especially the part about DL split the atom first and did it more evenly and neatly than anyone since.

 

[WorldTraveler]

So true and and so beautifully stated.  No wordy dissertations, just the plain simple facts. PRASM is way above their peers.

except it is not.

no dissertation. just debunking myths.

absolute PRASM on WN is BELOW several peers including the airline that first split the atom. And the longhaul vs. shorthaul excuse won't work because RASM is higher on shorthaul flights.

WN just doesn't command the revenue premiums from customers that its atom splitting competitor does. Apparently a few people don't realize that a simple business model doesn't deliver the complex revenues that the legacies are capable of generating.

cold hard, scientific facts like that aren't pleasant to have to uncover in a dark galley over Texas but facts they are.

Even if you talk about RASM CHANGE, WN estimated 8-9% compared to 7% for AA and DL (who appear more capable of giving a straight answer, BTW).

You can let us know the range you would assign to "way above" but 1-2% on a basis of 7 is not how most people would define 'way above' and again that is WN's RASM CHANGE not absolute change.

BTW, did we mention that WN SHRANK in order to push its RASM up while AA and its atom splitting partner in crime actually ADDED seats to the skies and still managed to push RASM up.


 

To my WN friends...
Sorry I managed to drag WT into the conversation. I'm thinking of starting a thread on nuclear fission; so that we may all get several pages of his expertise in that arena--especially the part about DL split the atom first and did it more evenly and neatly than anyone since.

jaded much to find out that hustling meals in 35 minutes to seat 6A is part of your airline's premium revenue strategy even if you don't get to benefit from it? at least WN and the atom splitter make sure their employees get an extra kick for their efforts.

be still your soul. At least Josh is right that the necessity for you to sling elaborate meals in record time will go down... in that sense, yes, AA will get simpler.

(I'm guessing my coffee and Bailey's won't be coming anytime soon?)

 

[does this plane go to paris]

To my WN friends...
Sorry I managed to drag WT into the conversation.  I'm thinking of starting a thread on nuclear fission; so that we may all get several pages of his expertise in that arena--especially the part about DL split the atom first and did it more evenly and neatly than anyone since.

All of their atom splitting has been done post BK and only in the city of SEA where, by the metrics based on Legacy vs. LCC's that have bought by another LCC based in ATL where their numbers and their profits multiplied by their current Market Value far exceed the expense of the lawyers needed to extract the fair market value of gaining access to gates in DAL and only the 717 will save the world.

 

[WorldTraveler]

IOW "stop pedaling faster than us cuz your numbers can't look better than ours"

"It was ok for us to have 30 years to beat you but now that the tide has turned, it's not only no fun but it is just not right."

uh huh

 

[swamt]

United Reports May 2014 Operational Performance
 
Here's UAL's MAY numbers, as others have asked for.  WT, stop what you are doing or get reported.
You are a prime example of a stalker of all airlines...

 

[swamt]

And once again since WT came in, trying to get back on topic...

 

[WNMECH]

For all the babbling WT does about how the legacies have learned how to compete with WN, he completely misses the real reason.

Only one thing, other than shedding debt in bankruptcy, has brought profits to the legacies.


Bag fees.


This is untapped wealth for SWA and when they start charging for bags and lower base fares, you will see how the legacies won't have any more tricks up their sleaves.
SWA will be loaded with free money and we will see real competition.

 

[WorldTraveler]

United Reports May 2014 Operational Performance
 
Here's UAL's MAY numbers, as others have asked for.  WT, stop what you are doing or get reported.
You are a prime example of a stalker of all airlines...

I posted those numbers elsewhere.

but, since you didn't add any commentary on UA's numbers what is notable is that UA has quit reporting its RASM change which leaves what AA, DL, and WN have posted as the only reliable monthly metric as to how RASM is moving in the industry.

UA slightly reduced capacity and saw a slight increase in traffic; WN did slightly better but both carriers reduced capacity while AA and DL increased it.

AA used to report fuel information but quit doing that under HP/US mgmt. which leaves DL and UA the only carriers to report fuel information. On that basis, DL expects its fuel costs for the quarter to be approx. 12 cents/gallon lower than UA's.

 

For all the babbling WT does about how the legacies have learned how to compete with WN, he completely misses the real reason.

Only one thing, other than shedding debt in bankruptcy, has brought profits to the legacies.


Bag fees.


This is untapped wealth for SWA and when they start charging for bags and lower base fares, you will see how the legacies won't have any more tricks up their sleaves.
SWA will be loaded with free money and we will see real competition.

except if WN really thought that they could add bag fees and not lose passengers, they would have done it.

They haven't done it because they know full well that free bags for all is a big part of what keeps customers loyal to WN. It has nothing to do with getting superior revenue but rather lower costs.

IF WN added bag fees esp. as they add service into highly competitive markets, it is far from certain that they would become the choice of travelers in highly competitive markets.

WN's product is not simple; their ramp agents have much higher workloads because WN uses bags as a marketing tool.

Further, many of the legacy airlines are reducing the number of people who are paying bag fees as they further "complicate" their business plan in order to target fees to the right people.

If WN doesn't charge for services which they could be, it is the other carriers who are managing their businesses more effectively.

Spirit and Allegiant have even more unbundled business plans that look more like Ryanair and Easyjet but people flock to those airlines.

again, I am more than happy to give WN credit for what they do but they also have to be held to the same standards and metrics which they used to compare themselves to the rest of the industry for years. WN isn't generating revenue on a level any higher than at least some of the legacy carriers and other carriers have indeed surpassed WN on several key financial metrics.

Further, no one, certainly not on Wall Street, measures WN's value and financial performance today based on what they did for decades. They are measured AGAINST OTHER AIRLINES based on what they are doing today - bag fees included or not. WN's market cap is very much proportionately inline with AA, AS, and DL as strong financial performers in the industry.

WN is a well run company and I have never said otherwise but WN is not the only well-run company in the industry which is delivering solid results for the majority of the US airlines.

And I still want to hear from WN people what the implications of WN's financial performance will be on its labor negotiations. Profit sharing will clearly be up but what about long-term labor rates?
WN's labor rates are still above its legacy peers and WN is losing its productivity edge which is what gave it the ability to pay above average labor rates.

 

[WorldTraveler]

..that have bought by another LCC based in ATL

btw, who are you referring to here?

and wnmech,
bag fees and other ancillary revenue are not considered part of the core RASM number which some carriers refer to as PRASM.

also, those who want to argue that Bk gave the legacies an unfair advantage seem to forget that it was deregulation that gave the low fare carriers the opportunity to expand thruout the US.

The irony of deregulation is that the airline industry is more concentrated in the hands of a few players and the difference in costs and services between the LCCs and the legacy carriers is smaller than it has ever been.

but both deregulation and BK are/were legal processes which government thought was best. Each segment of the industry benefitted in different proportions to each type of legislation.

Many legacy carriers did not support deregulation; some of the legacy carriers that were most supportive of it are also the ones that have done the best under it.

 

[700UW]

And DL is going to cut DAL-ATL from 6 to 5 later this year and cutting JFK-CLT to one flight a day.

 

[swamt]

For all the babbling WT does about how the legacies have learned how to compete with WN, he completely misses the real reason.

Only one thing, other than shedding debt in bankruptcy, has brought profits to the legacies.


Bag fees.


This is untapped wealth for SWA and when they start charging for bags and lower base fares, you will see how the legacies won't have any more tricks up their sleaves.
SWA will be loaded with free money and we will see real competition.

Agreed.  But I see SWA doing half price for bags or at least a much lower price anyway. My prediction would be late 15 or 16 for the bag fees.  They are just passing up on too much revenue.  

 

[WorldTraveler]

And DL is going to cut DAL-ATL from 6 to 5 later this year and cutting JFK-CLT to one flight a day.

 
are you sure this is nothing more than the usual holiday and winter adjustments?

 

Agreed.  But I see SWA doing half price for bags or at least a much lower price anyway. My prediction would be late 15 or 16 for the bag fees.  They are just passing up on too much revenue.

and if WN can get a little money out of bags, then they should.

But you also have to ask if it is really worth charging a lot of people a little bit of money or just ask the people who buy the lowest priced tickets - a relative minority - to pay fares comparable to what other carriers charge.

If WN starts charging for bags, the chances are pretty high that they will exclude their highest fare passengers from paying.

and WN still has a huge number of people who fly on fairly short legs within the west and north-south on the east coast where one roller board plus one carry on is more than sufficient for most trips. There are undoubtedly people who check bags who wouldn't if they had to pay for them.

Many legacy customers manage to work within the airline bag limits. Most of the legacies don't make passengers pay for bags if the overhead bins are full.
WN's overhead bins are just as big as other carriers +/-. The only difference is that WN because it doesn't have a FC cabin has more seats on similar sized aircraft... but that is likely offset by fewer bags on shorter overall trips.

WN should start charging for some bags and I would bet it might come by next year.

Given that WN is expanding so aggressively into so many key markets this year and WN's policy is an advantage over FL's, the no bag fees tag line is a strong incentive for customers to stay with or try WN in markets where there significant changes are taking place.

WN is a well-run company and will do what is necessary at the right time.

IN the meantime, overall revenues are strong. The domestic market is HOT.

 

[eolesen]

WN can't handle bag fees in their dinotech PSS, but will be able to do so when they migrate to Amadeus, which will be sometime inlate 2015/early 2016 according to the company's statements.

Whether or not they implement first bag fees is another question.

 

[swamt]

WN can't handle bag fees in their dinotech PSS, but will be able to do so when they migrate to Amadeus, which will be sometime inlate 2015/early 2016 according to the company's statements.

Whether or not they implement first bag fees is another question.

I don't think SWA will charge for the first bag.  I really think they will allow the first bag free.  It's the baggage after the first and carry on that may very possibly get charges later on, my opinion only. And IF it ever does happen at SWA I still think it will be at half prices other airlines are charging in order to keep the majority with SWA and not flood other airlines.  But who knows, only time will tell...