WorldTraveler
Corn Field
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- #31
this could put a quick nip in WN's revenue growth.
1st Q Numbers look great!
- Thread starter swamt
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WorldTraveler
Corn Field
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- #33
US airline stocks are in retreat today just as they were yesterday because investors are connecting what is happening in Europe based on LH's statements regarding the influence of the ME3 and low fare competition on the legacy Euro carriers.
Unfortunately, Wall street doesn't know how to value LH's comments relative to the US carriers; the TATL market and domestic US market is hardly affected.
but, increasing fuel costs could have a negative effect and impact labor negotiations. It is also possible that the carrier with a refinery might see better results than others. But at the minimum those carriers that hedge are likely to benefit while those that do not could see much higher fuel prices.
Unfortunately, Wall street doesn't know how to value LH's comments relative to the US carriers; the TATL market and domestic US market is hardly affected.
but, increasing fuel costs could have a negative effect and impact labor negotiations. It is also possible that the carrier with a refinery might see better results than others. But at the minimum those carriers that hedge are likely to benefit while those that do not could see much higher fuel prices.
WorldTraveler
Corn Field
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- #35
try again for what?
Crude oil prices are at 3 year highs.
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/crude%20oil%20-%20electronic
How long they remain that way is anyone's guess but high fuel prices have always hurt transportation stocks.
Carriers that have fewer hedges will be more hurt than those who have more. carriers that might have additional strategies to deal with fuel prices will be an advantage to those who have no hedging or any other major competitive strategies.
Airlines very rarely sign commitments such as long term labor contracts in the face of demand and cost uncertainty.
Crude oil prices are at 3 year highs.
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/crude%20oil%20-%20electronic
How long they remain that way is anyone's guess but high fuel prices have always hurt transportation stocks.
Carriers that have fewer hedges will be more hurt than those who have more. carriers that might have additional strategies to deal with fuel prices will be an advantage to those who have no hedging or any other major competitive strategies.
Airlines very rarely sign commitments such as long term labor contracts in the face of demand and cost uncertainty.
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- Thread starter
- #36
Southwest Airlines finds itself at a crossroads
Big profits still to come it looks like. Looking forward to the 2nd Q report.
Big profits still to come it looks like. Looking forward to the 2nd Q report.
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- #37
Can Southwest Airlines (LUV) Keep the Earnings Streak Alive This Quarter?
As we await final #'s for the 2nd Q and mid year they all have to raise the estimates prior to reporting. I know this is the norm but if they raise them too high then SWA beats yet again by 2 cents rather than by 12 cents (per say) then it only looks like a mild increase rather than another record and blow out 2nd Q. I guess as an example look over at Delta. They beat estimates and showed possitive increases but stock plunged just because the investors got worried about not reaching the larger increases. Just another way that the finaciars and the media in one way or another control the markets and how they respond to issues as long as they are reported. If they would have just left things the way they were the blow out 2Q would have been much more greater than what it will be reported...
As we await final #'s for the 2nd Q and mid year they all have to raise the estimates prior to reporting. I know this is the norm but if they raise them too high then SWA beats yet again by 2 cents rather than by 12 cents (per say) then it only looks like a mild increase rather than another record and blow out 2nd Q. I guess as an example look over at Delta. They beat estimates and showed possitive increases but stock plunged just because the investors got worried about not reaching the larger increases. Just another way that the finaciars and the media in one way or another control the markets and how they respond to issues as long as they are reported. If they would have just left things the way they were the blow out 2Q would have been much more greater than what it will be reported...
WorldTraveler
Corn Field
- Dec 5, 2003
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- #38
swamt,
publicly traded companies have to provide reasonably accurate guidance to investors and the SEC regarding any item that can affect their earnings and stock price.
They can't hold onto information that would indicate strong earnings just so they can amaze the market and watch their stock price rise.
They are also required to inform the market if they will miss expected earnings - UAL has done that several times since their merger.
Finally, no airline stock has "plunged" including DL, esp. if you look at the stock price over more than just a day - but even UAL has seen several days of late than have involved 10% drops in stock price only to recover much of that in the following days.
Recent weakness in the airline sector's stock prices have been driven by higher fuel prices - which are coming back down - and more significantly by concern that capacity discipline is going out the window in favor of market share gains which is what has happened many times in the past to the detriment of airline earnings.
Lufthansa mentioned it first then DL echoed those comments. It is likely valid given that UA has cut several TATL routes on either a seasonal or permanent basis. LH is also reducing its capacity to JFK during the winter to a little over one flight/day to FRA. For one of the Euro megacarriers on one of the largest TATL routes, that is not a lot of capacity.
DL also said there is weakness in Latin America which appears to be related to the Cup but if a significant amount of new capacity in Latin America such as with WN's new service starts to depress yields or results in other carrier capacity additions to balance what WN is adding, then the problem could be longer term and indicate that the problems of overcapacity could undo a strong market in Latin America right now.
The domestic market is strong which is good for WN particularly but given that WN has a lot of new markets to develop over the next six months plus has focused their growth on int'l markets, what is happening outside of the US will be more and more important to WN.
publicly traded companies have to provide reasonably accurate guidance to investors and the SEC regarding any item that can affect their earnings and stock price.
They can't hold onto information that would indicate strong earnings just so they can amaze the market and watch their stock price rise.
They are also required to inform the market if they will miss expected earnings - UAL has done that several times since their merger.
Finally, no airline stock has "plunged" including DL, esp. if you look at the stock price over more than just a day - but even UAL has seen several days of late than have involved 10% drops in stock price only to recover much of that in the following days.
Recent weakness in the airline sector's stock prices have been driven by higher fuel prices - which are coming back down - and more significantly by concern that capacity discipline is going out the window in favor of market share gains which is what has happened many times in the past to the detriment of airline earnings.
Lufthansa mentioned it first then DL echoed those comments. It is likely valid given that UA has cut several TATL routes on either a seasonal or permanent basis. LH is also reducing its capacity to JFK during the winter to a little over one flight/day to FRA. For one of the Euro megacarriers on one of the largest TATL routes, that is not a lot of capacity.
DL also said there is weakness in Latin America which appears to be related to the Cup but if a significant amount of new capacity in Latin America such as with WN's new service starts to depress yields or results in other carrier capacity additions to balance what WN is adding, then the problem could be longer term and indicate that the problems of overcapacity could undo a strong market in Latin America right now.
The domestic market is strong which is good for WN particularly but given that WN has a lot of new markets to develop over the next six months plus has focused their growth on int'l markets, what is happening outside of the US will be more and more important to WN.
- Thread Starter
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- #39
Southwest Airlines June traffic up
2nd Q as well as June numbers are looking great! More record profits coming. Keep up the graet job SWA...
2nd Q as well as June numbers are looking great! More record profits coming. Keep up the graet job SWA...
WorldTraveler
Corn Field
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- #40
and very strong RASM.
shows that the analysts who commented before WN reported their traffic stats were correct that the domestic marketplace remains strong.
also shows the value of capacity discipline... WN is being very measured about adding capacity and it is driving significant revenue growth on existing capacity.
that strength will come in REAL handy this fall as the DAL and DCA markets ramp up and as WN starts preparing for its int'l expansion next year.
any word on further expansions of the DAL schedule into next year, swamt?
I fully expect that what has been announced will be used until next summer and then additional flights will be added by next summer.
hope so anyway.
shows that the analysts who commented before WN reported their traffic stats were correct that the domestic marketplace remains strong.
also shows the value of capacity discipline... WN is being very measured about adding capacity and it is driving significant revenue growth on existing capacity.
that strength will come in REAL handy this fall as the DAL and DCA markets ramp up and as WN starts preparing for its int'l expansion next year.
any word on further expansions of the DAL schedule into next year, swamt?
I fully expect that what has been announced will be used until next summer and then additional flights will be added by next summer.
hope so anyway.
WorldTraveler
Corn Field
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- #42
schedules are there. 6X 717, IIRC.
I would imagine it has been resolved or they wouldn't be selling seats.
given that UA easily had space to accommodate DL's schedule and DAL has federal requirements to accommodate carriers, I expect UA had no choice but to let DL use its gates for a fee whether UA wanted to do or not.
the only option to avoid doing it would have been to fill its gates with its own flights which is what Virgin and WN are doing.
I would imagine it has been resolved or they wouldn't be selling seats.
given that UA easily had space to accommodate DL's schedule and DAL has federal requirements to accommodate carriers, I expect UA had no choice but to let DL use its gates for a fee whether UA wanted to do or not.
the only option to avoid doing it would have been to fill its gates with its own flights which is what Virgin and WN are doing.
WorldTraveler
Corn Field
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and yet they are there.....
and will still be there.
even though AA and US both tried hard to ensure they got kicked out.
it has also been pointed out to you by E that ORD DID accommodate VX in the int'l terminal where they had open gates but VX didn't accept the offer.
DAL most certainly does have accommodation requirements that are just like at every other airport.
feel free to argue the point if you want.
DL is selling tickets from DAL and will be there with 717s upgraded from RJs and added frequencies.
specific to WN, ATL will be the only destination that is served from both DAL and DFW by a legacy plus an LFC at both airports.
ain't ATL special?
and will still be there.
even though AA and US both tried hard to ensure they got kicked out.
it has also been pointed out to you by E that ORD DID accommodate VX in the int'l terminal where they had open gates but VX didn't accept the offer.
DAL most certainly does have accommodation requirements that are just like at every other airport.
feel free to argue the point if you want.
DL is selling tickets from DAL and will be there with 717s upgraded from RJs and added frequencies.
specific to WN, ATL will be the only destination that is served from both DAL and DFW by a legacy plus an LFC at both airports.
ain't ATL special?
robbedagain
Veteran
- Oct 13, 2003
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no ATL is no more special than any other airport! 
then again DL is no more special than any other airline!
then again DL is no more special than any other airline! Similar threads
