Well both of you guys may have some points.
More than likely none of those third party providers will bother replying to someone without an A&P.
Yea their current headcount may be 2 to 1 of uncertified to certified, but more than likely the uncertified were hired when they could not get A&P mechanics. Now they may feel they can and with thousands out on the street at least some may try to remain in the field and be willing to go there.
But if you think that mechanics will soon be flocking to them you are probably wrong. The skills that these mechanics posesss are sought after and even during recessions mechanics can usually find employment locally. We are starting to see more and more mechanics quit, mechanics that are not really in danger of a layoff either. Local utilities love hiring A&P mechanics, their knowlege of turbines, electronics, hydraulics, pneumatics, climate control systems, composite materials handling and repair etc make them highly adaptable.
For over 50 years there was a school called "The College of Aeronautics" right at the end of one of LGAs runways. Because of what is going on they had to change their name and in their recruitement ads they do not try to sell aviation anymore, instead citing the fact that many of their graduates (from their A&P program) found employment in the many other industries that desire the skills that A&P mechanics posess.
There will be a shortage of aircraft mechanics in the future, unfortunately it will not mean that we will have the leverage to gain back what we lost, unless we take action now to save the profession.
I say this because the TWU and the IAM are probably well aware if not complicite in the scheme to destroy the profession.
We all know that the Bush regime is hostile to working people. That his regime is more concerned with making the rich-richer than making America a secure place to live by allowing foreigners to come in and do work if the employer claims that they can not find Americans who will do the job at the prevailing wage.
So as the older workers start to retire the airlines will claim that they cant find enough Americans to do the work and that the country is at risk of a "transportation emergency". They will have locked in long term contracts and the unions will say there is nothing they can do.
The AFL-CIO unions may have been scared off with the threat of S-1327(?) McCain ® and Lotts ® bill to have all airline contracts be arbitrated under the guidelines that airline workers wages are limited to what the airline claims it can afford and what the other airlines are paying .In other words if your airline is making huge profits and could afford to pay you more but some other airline cant pay their workers more then the workers wages at the profitable airline would be set at what the workers at the money losing airline are making and lets not forget that the bill also ensures that the stockholder get a reasonable return on their investment!!!
While the McCain/Lott bill would affect all airline workers the other pending government action is focused squarely on Aircraft Mechanics, and the unions are saying nothing. If anything some are working to put it in place. By allowing the airlines to shed many of their A&Ps they are setting up the shortage that the government and the airlines will use as a need for FAR66.
FAR66 is an FAR revision that will eliminate the need for most A&P mechanics. It will allow the airlines to get rid of A&P mechanics while telling the public that everyone who works on their aircraft is FAA certified.
FAR 66 will allow the Airlines to issue their own, non-portable FAA certificates.
These certificates will be the equal to A&P certificates and will allow these non-A&Ps to sign the log-book. (The TWU has already collaborated in efforts to alter the once sacred log book, where only pilots and mechanics could write in by letting cabin cleaners make log book entries for security checks.)
These certificates will allow the airline to claim that all the people who fix their aircraft are still FAA certified, unions like the IAM and TWU will chime in on the company's behalf because they will still get the dues and by diluting the A&P mechanics they will face less of a threat from AMFA.
The TWU has collaborated with the company and the FAA in order to destroy our profession.
The TWU created a program to allow the company to replace jobs formerly held by certified mechanics with workers that had no prior formal training in Aircraft Maintenance. They called this new worker a Shop Repair Person(SRP) later changed to "Overhaul Support Mechanic" or OSM, notice how they added the term "mechanic", while at the same time changing the A&P Mechanic to the term AMT.
What the TWU has put in place is a pilot program in preperation for FAR66. Replacing A&P mechanics with non-A&P mechanics.
So now the industry has at least until 2008 to put FAR66 in place. By allowing the industry to lay off huge amounts of A&Ps they have at the same time stifled attempts to get AMFA put in place, because laid off workers have recall rights they are included in the 50% +1 thats needed to file for an election.
During the 2001 AA/TWU contract cycle Local 562 was campainig for FAR 66 awareness, we tried to make it a major isssue and the company and the union responed by putting in weak language that instead of protecting us from this threat made it clear that they were planning for a future with Part 66. If you carefully read the AA/TWU M&R contract the language makes it clear. It is crafted in a way to make us think that it says something it does not.
Article 1 sect (g)
Although a proposed FAR Part 66 was previously considered and subsequently withdrawn by the FAA, in the event of a future approved FAR 66, or equivelent rulemaking, which may have an impact of unliscenced personel performing aircraft maintenance work, the Company agrees to maintain its current practices until such time it discusses and reaches an understanding with the TWU International of the impact of such change. This provision will only remain in force and effect during the life of this Agreement.
Now its easy to see what this says.
First of all is its patroniizing opening phrase. Then it says "unliscenced", the new provision would create a whole new class of liscence, THATS THE PROBLEM WITH IT!!!, Then despite that it says that the company will discuss it and come to an understanding, not an agreement but an understanding!!!! Then to top it off it does not need membership "understanding", the International reserves that right to itself, and you know how that goes "Will they pay dues to the TWU"? "Yes" "OK with us!!"
This language was probably the work of Art Luby, TWU lawyer in an attempt to once and for all destroy the A&P profession. To make us accept our fate in unions like the TWU . Its time to fight back.
Now more than ever, even if you are thinking of leaving the profession is the time to fill out an AMFA card and at least give some hope that someday this will be the profession we thought it would be.