In the past, conventional wisdom was that AA would have to buy NW to acquire any substantial presence in China. With the recently expanded bilateral, I contend that is no longer necessary.
In 2010, 21 more weekly frequencies become available. In both of 2011 and 2012, 14 more weekly frequencies become available. A total of seven more daily flights by March 2012. These numbers don't count the frequencies dedicated to Zone 2 (which nobody seems to want). While it would be unrealistic to plan on getting a majority of these frequencies, winning two or three of the seven available shouldn't be unrealistic.
Where should AA next apply? LAX. UA said that its request for 2009 LAX-PEK would provide one-stop connectivity to 36 domestic cities behind LAX. AA's current LAX schedule would permit AA to offer one-stop connections to 31 domestic cities behind LAX (including its Alaska/Horizon codeshares). DOT's recent denial of the proposed UA PAX-PEK was a huge gift to AA; it permits AA to go head to head with UA in the next round of frequency allocations.
What should AA do? Spend the next 2-3 years bolstering its LAX schedule to provide even better connections to its proposed LAX-PVG and LAX-PEK flights. AA then argues that its LAX proposals would provide excellent inter-gateway competition to UA at SFO.
JFK? CO and the Chinese carriers seem to have that covered.
DFW? O&D traffic to China is almost as small as from ATL. Not worth wasting another application on this (even assuming the pilots agree to longer duty days). Let's see how low DL has to price its ATL-PVG flights to cover expenses before applying for DFW-China.
End result: AA could have four or five daily China flights by March 2012 without buying NW (or anyone else).
NH/BBs: I thought AA would have to buy the Red Tail to get it done. Now I'm optimistic that AA can do it alone.
In 2010, 21 more weekly frequencies become available. In both of 2011 and 2012, 14 more weekly frequencies become available. A total of seven more daily flights by March 2012. These numbers don't count the frequencies dedicated to Zone 2 (which nobody seems to want). While it would be unrealistic to plan on getting a majority of these frequencies, winning two or three of the seven available shouldn't be unrealistic.
Where should AA next apply? LAX. UA said that its request for 2009 LAX-PEK would provide one-stop connectivity to 36 domestic cities behind LAX. AA's current LAX schedule would permit AA to offer one-stop connections to 31 domestic cities behind LAX (including its Alaska/Horizon codeshares). DOT's recent denial of the proposed UA PAX-PEK was a huge gift to AA; it permits AA to go head to head with UA in the next round of frequency allocations.
What should AA do? Spend the next 2-3 years bolstering its LAX schedule to provide even better connections to its proposed LAX-PVG and LAX-PEK flights. AA then argues that its LAX proposals would provide excellent inter-gateway competition to UA at SFO.
JFK? CO and the Chinese carriers seem to have that covered.
DFW? O&D traffic to China is almost as small as from ATL. Not worth wasting another application on this (even assuming the pilots agree to longer duty days). Let's see how low DL has to price its ATL-PVG flights to cover expenses before applying for DFW-China.
End result: AA could have four or five daily China flights by March 2012 without buying NW (or anyone else).
NH/BBs: I thought AA would have to buy the Red Tail to get it done. Now I'm optimistic that AA can do it alone.