AA getting 4 gates in LAX T6.

[Glenn Quagmire]

What are you blathering about?

They will hire (buy) the talent needed if they haven't already.

LAX will be the envy of DL. I remember sitting in meetings back in the early 90's with an airline visionary saying that LAX was the number one target into the 2000's and number 2 was NYC.

The WAL merger/buyout was mentioned as a big score for DL.

I will save his name for later.

 

[WorldTraveler]

we will sit on pins and needles waiting to hear that name but you might also have sat thru presentations in which DL execs at the time said they were going to build an Asian hub at HNL.

The industry moves on and sometimes you pursue other options.

You can buy expertise to help - DL has done it in NYC with some of AA's top execs but you must have hard assets and enough of a size to make key markets work. No exec can turn a market around without having the service and size to go after key accounts. DL and UA simply have far more mass inn the west coast to Asia market.

WAL was a big deal for DL. The whole meltdown on the east coast forced DL to focus its attention on the east coast where DL still has a commanding position. Although the AA/US merger has dramatically improved AA's position on the east coast, we have yet to see how AA's network will really look after the slot divestitures allow new carriers to expand - almost all of which are AA/US top markets - and the inevitable hub closures and downsizing that are going to happen even if the AA fan club here thinks they will be exempt.

After WA, DL bought Pan Am's NYC and continental Europe assets and played around with them for more than a decade before figuring out how to make them work. You probably could drop the name of the CO exec who helped built EWR for them who now is running DL's network.

Don't forget that AA also had a west coast merger partner and they have very little left to show for that merger and they also had a transpac hub there which doesn't exist.

we could drag skeletons out of either AA or DL's closet all day long but the simple fact is that in the present situation, AA is the largest airline at LAX but that came only after the merger where they retook the title from UA who had gained it as a result of their merger.

DL's share of the LAX market is still far larger than AA's is of NYC or DL's is of ORD. At 18% for DL and 24% for AA with UA squeezed between them in revenue, there is certainly not the difference at LAX that you or others want to believe there is. A few gates are not going to tilt the results in any carrier's favor.

When you consider that the new gate additions will still keep AA and DL roughly comparable size for current mainline capable gates in their own terminals with AA's size advantage coming from the Eagle's nest and ability to use TBIT gates, the difference is just not that large, esp. since DL has the ability to upgrade a lot of their existing large RJ flying to mainline in the next year.

The real issue at LAX is and will continue to be that there are simply not enough gates for any carrier to dominate the market or use it as a hub.

Factor in that most of the markets that AA needs to fly from LAX in order to grow its LAX to Asia network (current or proposed) and that those same markets support current Asian flights via ORD or DFW and AA would only be hurting its ORD or DFW to Asia flights in order to make LAX to Asia work. If you or someone else disagrees, tell me what markets AA needs to fly from LAX that they don't and which don't compete with their existing ORD or DFW to Asia flights.

Finally, AA's growth at LAX still doesn't solve its overall weakness elsewhere on the west coast which is only being impacted further by DL's growth at LAX. AA can respond by adding north-south flying on the west coast but they then step on AS' toes and further aggravate AS' finances which are already being impacted by DL's growth at SEA and LAX.

The good news for AA and DL fans is that both carriers are very aggressively focusing on the west coast which has been a secondary focus for both carriers for decades since the 90s when the focus shifted to the east coast.

UA is clearly the most vulnerable and as much as some would like to see this whole situation as a competition between AA and DL, it is UA who is most vulnerable along with regional players such as AS and VX.

and let's still keep in mind that whatever AA accomplishes at LAX isn't going to change that they have very likely permanently given up any chance of being one of the top 2 carriers in NYC, they will at best be on par with UA at ORD, and they will have to do a whole to move out of the #3 position in the entire west - and we still have yet to see the impact of slot divestitures and hub closures on AA's western US network.

AA should do whatever it can to hold onto and expand its network. other competitors will do the same.

AA likely will see some success but those who think they are going to be able to dramatically rearrange certain parts of the market by acquiring a few gates or deciding to add a few new flights will very likely be disappointed to find out in a few years that has not happened.

 

[LDVAviation]

When you consider that the new gate additions will still keep AA and DL roughly comparable size for current mainline capable gates in their own terminals with AA's size advantage coming from the Eagle's nest and ability to use TBIT gates, the difference is just not that large, esp. since DL has the ability to upgrade a lot of their existing large RJ flying to mainline in the next year.

 
Folks, you heard it here.  In the next year, DL will convert all SFO/LAX flights to mainline.  If this does not happen, Delta will just sue someone.  

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

WT:
"When you consider that the new gate additions will still keep AA and DL roughly comparable size for current mainline capable gates in their own terminals"

Can you please qualify that a little more for us please?

Damn. Does it hurt when you stretch that far?

 

[WorldTraveler]

methinks there are more than a few people who can't deal with the reality that AA isn't going to turn LAX into the next DFW. And the biggest part of the reason is that AA again wants to gain a structural advantage such that it can keep competitors out. After all, they had a structural advantage at DFW for decades and that is falling. At LHR and in Latin America, AA is now facing competition that they didn't have to face for decades.

Problem is that LAX just isn't that large for any carrier to dominate.

and as much as the AA fan club crows about the advantages that AA will have as a result of opening the tunnel, somehow they forget that the tunnel will connect on two ends and DL could very well decide to put some of its int'l flights in TBIT and open up space there.

Again, some people can't accept that I congratulated AA for their strategic achievement but they also need to accept it isn't the panacea they think it is.

 

[eolesen]

It's the "in their own terminals" qualifier.... Since T4 and T5 are roughly the same number of gates, he's correct there.

His qualifier conveniently reduces the gate footprint for AA by about 50%...

With the one remaining gate at T3, the four gates in T6. eight RJ-only gates, that's almost the same number of parking positions as what DL uses (there's no way all their mainline gates will ever be used for mainline aircraft).

It also ignores the gates in TBIT that come online in the immediate future...

The fact is that AA isn't trying to turn LAX into a DFW. They don't need to.

Really, all they're doing is exploiting the huge O/D volumes made possible at the largest air market in the US.

It's a far more lucrative approach than what DL is doing in SEA. AA's routes stand a much better chance of surviving without feed. If one doesn't work out, it goes away with minimal pain and suffering, and gets replaced by something more lucrative.

Worst case, they close a few gates at the RJ terminal, and keep the landside gates to keep them out of DL's hands...

 

[WorldTraveler]

what? largest air market in the US?

AA can absolutely succeed in the domestic markets it serves and can serve.... but everyone including you want to pretend that Asian carriers can't torpedo all of AA's grand plans in a minute. They have much lower costs, better feed on the Asian end of the route; and DL and UA are just not going to roll over and allow AA to turn LAX into a hub to Asia. They are quite happy to see AA losing as much money from LAX to Asia as they do now.

DL's operation at SEA already has 4X more int'l flights than AA has at LAX. So, yes, what DL is doing at SEA is in a different class.

 

[MAH4546]

Let's try this again:
 
At decades end, assuming nothing changes, mainline capable gates held by the network carriers at LAX in 2019:
 
AA - 34
UA - 20
DL - 15+1 shared with Alaska
 
That's quite the advantage; some people hate hearing it, though.

 

[WorldTraveler]

first, your count of DL gates is always short. DL has 3 preferential use gates in T6.

second, you keep telling us what will happen at the end of the decade... you do realize that is 5+ years away?

IN that space of time, other carriers can also strike deals that could increase their gate usage.

and you still have yet to tell me how even 20 more gates than a competitor are going to increase AA's chances of success from LAX to Asia when they can't do it with the gates they do have. what O&Ds is AA going to flow over LAX that don't compete with ORD or DFW to Asia flights? What Asian or US airlines do you think are going to allow AA to expand from LAX to Asia? you do realize that the only realize that UA started LAX-PVG is because AA started it and UA is not going to allow UA to start a route from LAX that will compete with UA's SFO hub?
Further, LAX is and always will be very vulnerable to hubs at SFO and SEA where those carriers can easily price LAX originating traffic at low fares even while maintaining strong flows over other hubs.

gaining the gates are a great coup for AA... I have said that repeatedly. But gates are only part of the factors that AA has to have in order to build a full gateway/hub at LAX. right now, all of the talk about AA's growth at LAX doesn't really mean much if they can't make LAX-Asia work.

 

[eolesen]

Just picking a random Wednesday in October... I'm not seeing where DL is going to be able to stuff more into those gates they have, but it's pretty clear AA has room to expand.

DL mainline flights.. 71
DL Connection flights 67
Domestic destinations 28
Longhaul international destinations... NRT, HND, SYD
Shorthaul international destinations.. GUA, GDL, CUN, PVR, BJX, SAL, SJO
Codeshare international destinations.. AMS, BNE, CAN, CDG, LHR, MEX, PVG, SJD, SVO, TPE, YEG, YVR, YYC
23 International Destinations (14 excluding CA/MX)

AA mainline flights.. 103
AA American Eagle.... 32
Domestic destinations 36
Longhaul international destinations.... NRT, GRU, PVG, LHR
Shorthaul international destinations... SJD, YYZ
Codeshare international destinations... AUH, BNE, GDL, HKG, LIM, MAD, MEL, MEX, NAN, PPT, SYD, YEG, YVR, YYC
20 International Destinations (13 excluding CA/MX)

UA mainline flights.. 95
UA Express........... 81
Domestic destinations 42
Longhaul international destinations.... LHR, NRT, PVG, SYD
Shorthaul international destinations... BJX, MEX, YVR
Codeshare international destinations... AKL, FRA, HND, ICN, MUC, PEK, PTY, SAL, YUL, YYZ, ZRH
When you compare what DL and AA offer, it's fairly comprehensive between the two.

The only reasonable longhaul international destinations I can think of which are holes for AA are ICN, TPE, & PEK.

With all the gates AA are holding onto, it's becoming clear that their expansion will be domestic, and possibly into Mexico. That's where it looks likely to hurt UA more than anyone else.

 

[WorldTraveler]

and again you miss the point that I have never said that DL is attempting to dethrone AA at LAX. DL clearly does not have the real estate to do that.

What I have consistently said is that DL has the gates to be able to serve what it deems to be the most essential markets from LAX (which is not necessarily the same list that AA or UA would choose), DL uses its gates far more efficiently than AA or UA in terms of passengers per flight, and DL gets a revenue premium for the flights it operates.

Further, DL has significant average fare premiums on its current LAX int'l routes, is adding to its LAX int'l repertoire with LHR and there will be more announced beyond those, and DL continues to add to its domestic network from LAX - whether forums folks say they have any room for expansion at LAX or not.

AA has a great operation at LAX - I have never said otherwise. But AA is pulling back in some of its core markets including reduced transcon capacity significantly even if they are adding more premium seats just as the premium market is becoming even more competitive.

UA will be hard-pressed to fight back which makes it that much easier for AA and DL to both gain.

but there are much larger strategic issues involved than just adding a few more Asian flights. It involves positioning on the west coast and to Asia.

AA might add a few more flights but the likelihood that they will be able to restructure the west coast market, esp. to Asia is far from the certainty that some people here want to make it.

of course they should go for it... but people here should not underestimate the challenge.

 

[LDVAviation]

and as much as the AA fan club crows about the advantages that AA will have as a result of opening the tunnel, somehow they forget that the tunnel will connect on two ends and DL could very well decide to put some of its int'l flights in TBIT and open up space there.

 
That would not be very convenient for Delta passengers as the T4 connector was not sited to serve convenient passage between T5 and TBIT.  (The entrance to the tunnel is below the T4 bus gate; the entrance to the connector will be just behind the security checkpoint at T4.  The two are separated by almost the entire length of the pier, plus the distance of tunnel itself.)  
 
Moreover, while Delta may be allowed to gate an after-hours flight now and then, LAWA is unlikely to allow another domestic airline to enter into a multi-gate deal at TBIT.  The terminal was intended for the primary use of international airlines.
 

first, your count of DL gates is always short. DL has 3 preferential use gates in T6.

 
Delta shares one of those T6 gates with Alaska.  LAWA wanted it that way.  Effectively, Delta has only exclusive use of 2 gates in T6.
 
 

Just picking a random Wednesday in October... I'm not seeing where DL is going to be able to stuff more into those gates they have, but it's pretty clear AA has room to expand.

 
This summer Delta will run 142 flights out of 15 full gates, plus one it shares with Alaska.  If it can get full use of 16 gates, it is 8.9 turns per gate.  I think the USTRB recommends 6 to 8 turns per gate.  They've effectively run out of room. 

 

[eolesen]

Is gating at TBIT even an option for anyone else holding a lease in one of the other terminals right now?

AA got the rights because they gave up real estate and also allowed the TBIT connector to be shut down for the past couple years, adding to their costs and customer inconvenience.

What skin does DL have in the game to request the space, especially when some carriers are being forced into pad operations during the peak hours?

 

[WorldTraveler]

You AA people are mighty possessive of LAX and you are also.wrong.

DL uses TBIT now. i was also just in T6 today and DL had flights at 3 gates including the 744 from NRT

Again AA only now how to win in a market when it shuts competitors out.

Other carriers will be able to add gates at LAX along with AA

 

[johnny kat]

Just curious, how is Alaska Airlines accomodated at LAX? And how many flights a day do they offer? Is it possible for either AA or DL to pair with them more closely to increase LAX service?