AA overreached

[FWAAA]

I'm betting that AA is in for a rude awakening if they decide to pursue abrogation......if you can read between the lines of APA Presidents statement to the pilots....."providing additional resources to the strke preparedness committee operations".......not exactly sure where AA will find 10K pilots by Saturday morning.

Some idiiot at the APA exposed the union to huge liability if there's a walkout. If it was Pres Wilson, then the pilots picked the wrong person to lead them. It's one thing to stage a wildcat strike but it's quite another to telegraph the union's financial liability for it on a public website.

According to the Judge, there were 7,664 active AA pilots on 2/1/12. I know where AA could find 2,935 pilots - the ones who voted yes on the LBO.

 

[1AA]

Some idiiot at the APA exposed the union to huge liability if there's a walkout. If it was Pres Wilson, then the pilots picked the wrong person to lead them. It's one thing to stage a wildcat strike but it's quite another to telegraph the union's financial liability for it on a public website.

According to the Judge, there were 7,664 active AA pilots on 2/1/12. I know where AA could find 2,935 pilots - the ones who voted yes on the LBO.

So lets play this out. Out of the 2,935 pilots that voted YES how many are Captains, First Officers and how many fleet types are covered? Like I said lets play this out but it won't happen.

 

[Mach85ER]

According to the Judge, there were 7,664 active AA pilots on 2/1/12. I know where AA could find 2,935 pilots - the ones who voted yes on the LBO.

Not quite FWAAA. Wishful cubicle group think, but the reality is that I'd guess that at least half that number just had a different view of the best path to reach the same result, getting rid of AA managment. On the pilot board, the loudest Yes vote supporters have pledged their support for the majority.

A wag on the typical vote is 20-25% will vote Yes on anything, same for the No side. All the rhetoric you hear in negotiations is usually to sway the the middle pilots.

Good luck at crewing a 3 pilot crew when 1 doesn't show up. The 66% show percentage on papers looks good, not so good in real life.

 

[strikeforce]

Some idiiot at the APA exposed the union to huge liability if there's a walkout. If it was Pres Wilson, then the pilots picked the wrong person to lead them. It's one thing to stage a wildcat strike but it's quite another to telegraph the union's financial liability for it on a public website.

According to the Judge, there were 7,664 active AA pilots on 2/1/12. I know where AA could find 2,935 pilots - the ones who voted yes on the LBO.

from the looks of it....I don't think the pilots care if the company knows, judge, you, me or anyone else knows what their intentions are.....I think they're so pissed at AA management that anything goes....including a wildcat strike! Don't underestimate the power of the bus driver.......you wouldn't want to bet if 2,935 pilots cross that picket line? Remember, you're not talking the TWU here..........

 

[Bob Owens]

Did you actually read the Judge's ruling?

On just about everything related to productivity, outsourcing, and scope, he sided with the Company, especially where they were asking for parity with what UA, DL, and US had achieved in court. He fully agreed on the 20% target as being fair and equitable.

Thats what you dont seem to be hearing, we would accept parity with UA or DL, AA is asking us to accept onerous terms that nobody ever agreed to.

 

[Bob Owens]

As usual you are wrong again. The decision does not force the Company to move closer to the pilots even on the two issue that it says they overreached on. The judge was evaluating the Term Sheet. The Company had already come closer to the pilots on these exact issues in the LBFO and, if you read the opinion, it is clear that all the Company has to do is line up the term sheet with its LBFO on codesharing and furloughs and the motion will be granted. The decision says the Company cannot reorganize with its present pilot agreement, that it is entitled to the amount of economic relief it demanded, that it was correct in all of its valuations, and goes on to validate a whole string of concessions including major scope relief. The flight attendants have made clear that this is no victory and I agree with them. They know that the principles of this opinion make contract abrogation inevitable, probably sooner rather than later.

As for Delta and United, with the pay increases that go into effect at the end of the year (not end of contract) at Delta and on DOS at UAL (assuming, as I do, that the increases bring them near Delta rates), AA pilots will be at least 20 percent behind in compensation.

OK it doesnt force them (where in the quote does it say force?) but they have to change the term sheet and resubmit if they want abrogation, so what would be imposed is pretty much what they rejected, which is an improvement over the term sheet, but if they had accepted it they would be stuck with it for six years. In other words the deal that they impose while negotiations continue is not going to be as bad as the term sheet. They will go into abrogation with 95% of their guys having furlogh protection while we agreed to a six year deal with no system protection.

This was a gain for the pilots.

20%. Don, we went over this already, so you are saying that next year the Delta pilots will be making 20% more than AA's pilots are now, not including any increases they may negotiate in between, while we are making 20% less than what UAL mechanics are NOW, not next year, NOW and they start negotiations in September.

 

[Tex-Mech]

Give it up guys. The M&R has spoken it passed.
So what is the next step AMFA, IBT, no union.
Will the line presidents give up their cushy twu spots and have an all out assault on the twu or will they keep bitching about the twu and keep hiding within. Bob, Chuck, and all the other no video presidents need to put their money where their mouth is. I and half of tulsa wait.

So now Tulsa is waiting on all the line presidents to quit? Then what? You mean to say that you guys can't choose a union without the line presidents quiting? That makes no sense whatsoever.

 

[Bob Owens]

Negative buddy. They gained nothing on the furlough language. Judge Lane stated that AA did not present adequate arguments to abrogate the existing APA language that limits furloughs to 2,000 which would have allowed AA no restrictions on RIFs. AA's current business plan has pilot RIF's at 400 so they can RIF up to 2,000 more.

The TWU language in the new CBA caps maintenance spend at 35% outsourced so we have a cap as well. AA was not asking for unlimited outsourcing (like UA has in the IBT CBA) or outsourcing all engine and components with a cap of 4 AO lines in-house like WN. AA would have easily won abrogation on the TWU M&R CBA based on what industry standard outsourcing is at now. The judge in his decision looked at AA's arguments on labor costs and agreed with them. Read the decision. Lane gave AA the road map to abrogating their agreement and told them only unlimited code sharing and unlimited RIFs were not okay. This is a delay of weeks not an opening for the APA to get more.

Whats the current limit on outsourcing? 50% right? As long as they keep 50.25% of the work in house they are compliant with that part of the current language.

Tell us how many heads does the 35% cap on maint spend translate to?

AA didnt ask for unlimited outsourcing but they did get unlimited RIFs. The only limit to rifs is by the spend, the more you decrease the total spend the more they can rif. So unlike the pilots who have an actual cut off person as far as layoffs AA has no defined limit as far as a person.

 

[bluebird]

...AA will continue negotiating with the pilots, but AA already released a statement that it will file its revised 1113 motion by tomorrow and if AA deletes the unlimited codesharing and changes to furlough provisions, it knows how the Judge will rule. Excise those provisions and AA gets authority to abrogate the contract. Once abrogated, I'm sure that negotiations will continue, but there's no rush to improve on the LBO if AA has the power to impose the term sheet...

If they impose the term sheet, I imagine it will not work out well for AA.

 

[Bob Owens]

Where did you read that negotiations will continue? I must have missed that. All I have seen is that A/A will amend those two sections and resubmit on Friday to complete the abrogation and imposition of the 3/21 term sheet.

If AA does not negotiate then under section 6 of the RLA the pilots can strike.

 

[Bob Owens]

.
Ruling the way he did and making it clear that all AA has to do is modify those two provisions and submit to get the abrogation ruling reversed, I think puts the pilots in a more precarious situation.

Thats what he is trying to do, scare the pilots to consent, the last thing he wants to do is abrogate because the pilots have the ability to kill the airline.

 

[DNTULSA]

Thats what he is trying to do, scare the pilots to consent, the last thing he wants to do is abrogate because the pilots have the ability to kill the airline.

Bob, you are absoloutely correct.

The pilots have the ability to kill the airline and lose their jobs.

It will be interesting seeing the outcome of this.

 

[IORFA]

Wildcat strike, yes. Sickout, yes. Release by the NMB? No chance in hell. Best chance of that happening will be next year, only IF Obama wins again. Even if he wins, I still don't think he will allow it. Obviously my opinion. Remember this is an election year.

 

[will fix for food]

If AA does not negotiate then under section 6 of the RLA the pilots can strike.

They did negotiate, correct? Are you saying that they are obligated to sit across the table from each other until the judge abrogates the contract and imposes the 3/21 term sheet with the two ammended sections? When is that, tomorrow? Monday?

 

[FWAAA]

So lets play this out. Out of the 2,935 pilots that voted YES how many are Captains, First Officers and how many fleet types are covered? Like I said lets play this out but it won't happen.

Good point. Nobody knows how many of the "yes" voters would show up for work, nor does anyone know how many of the "no" voters would walk out.

In 1999, the pilots were very pissed, many called in sick and AA ended up cancelling 6,600 flights over ten days, or 30% of the schedule.

Not quite FWAAA. Wishful cubicle group think, but the reality is that I'd guess that at least half that number just had a different view of the best path to reach the same result, getting rid of AA managment. On the pilot board, the loudest Yes vote supporters have pledged their support for the majority.

A wag on the typical vote is 20-25% will vote Yes on anything, same for the No side. All the rhetoric you hear in negotiations is usually to sway the the middle pilots.

Good luck at crewing a 3 pilot crew when 1 doesn't show up. The 66% show percentage on papers looks good, not so good in real life.

I don't doubt that some romanticize a repeat of Eastern. No doubt the pilots have the power to burn the place down. I just doubt that a substantial number of them would follow thru. You may be right, but I'm skeptical.

Like you've said before, there are plenty of jobs for all AA pilots in Asia and with the looming pilot shortage worldwide, the pilots and their families would no doubt be better off if AA shut down.