Before you get too excited about unions going out on strike... a refresher in the history of PEB's:
Before Clinton stepped in with APA, there hadn't been any hint of presidential intervention with negotiations or strikes at airline unions since 1966, even during the darkest days at Continental or Eastern.
Well one of the things you left out was a PEB can be very different, depending on who is calling it and for whom. Often labor requests the PEBs. The IAM had requested PEBs at I beleive both Continental and Eastern but were denied, because Lorennzo wanted a strike so he could break the unions. The APA was hit by a PEB because both AA and the AFL-CIO wanted to prevent a strike-the APA is not affiliated with the AFL-CIO nor is the APFA. Howver Bush used the PEB or threat of a PEB to block airline workers from making gains when they were in a perfect position to do so. He is the only President to declare that he would not allow any strikes at the major airlines (unless of course the company wanted the strike to break a union).
Given the gains by the Democrats in the House, Senate and Executive Branch: I'd rather have a PEB with AMR placed under oath as to:
1) the actual extent of their pension funding versus the funding claimed under current ERISA laws.
2) the actual extent of their medical retiree funding versus the funding claimed under current ERISA laws.
3) the actual funding levels as opposed to legislative limits on funds held for their self-insured medical funding and the extent to which claims of funding meet current market realities.
4) the actual versus claimed reductions in costs and increases in revenue for the TWU M&E group as a whole as compared with all other labor groups on the property.
5) the actual CASM for M&E as supplied through the TVS for the last three years.
6) the reasoning behind not complying with the LMRDA and reporting the million dollar subsidies AMR pays to TWU Union Leaders.
7) the reasoning behind requiring Union Membership at AA as a condition of employment given the fact that Federal Courts have recognized the ability of the Union to make and modify labor agreements without the ratification of the membership.
Political agenda will always be a factor in the use of PEBs, but you will find the over-arching factor to be the size of the carrier and the potential disruptive impact of a strike.
AA will qualify for a PEB, particularly in these sensitive economic times.
The real question is to timing - when will mediation end.
My earlier comments on congressional intervention still apply.
