AA will be bankrupt soon?

[MCI transplant]

The one thing you have to is remember the airline industry will never return the what it was prior to 2000. Those days are gone forever.

<_< ------Joe, I believe we both came to that conclusion!--------- You got out of it! I retired from it!

 

[FWAAA]

You guys may be right:

US airlines fly 6,600 fewer daily flights vs 2000

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-airlin...7?siteid=yhoof2

 

[Mrs. McFly]

The sad part is that I don't think anyone knows what course the industry is going to take in the future. Obviously, pre-2000 is out of the question, but how many more cuts and reconfigurations will be needed to become profitable once again - if that is possible.

 

[Joe Patroni]

It's possible. But I think most, in not all, of the employees are going to like the way the future is going to be.

 

[FrequentFlierCA]

I think you're absolutely right, Joe.

The entire paradigm for the industry has changed. Low cost carriers operate newer aircraft and younger employees, all of which enable them to keep costs low and offer low fares. I've watched over the last two decades as this competition has become more and more intense. Unfortunately I just don't see how the legacys will ever get back to affording the pay scales of the "golden age". I know most people on this board will not want to hear it - and I certainly wouldn't if I were in their shoes - but I think what we've seen is a permanent shift downward in wages.

 

[frontline]

<_< ------- You maybe right! And maybe not! ------- But then again, when is it a good time? :huh:

I wish I were dead wrong, believe me! With the possible exception of 2006, there really hasn't been a "good" time for us to go after wage increases this entire decade. If it's not one thing (9/11, wars, SARS) it's another (Swine flu, oil, recession). The industry needs structural change to get into a sustainably profitable model. I want AMR to make hundreds of millions a quarter so I can go after my share.

 

[Hackman]

I wish I were dead wrong, believe me! With the possible exception of 2006, there really hasn't been a "good" time for us to go after wage increases this entire decade. If it's not one thing (9/11, wars, SARS) it's another (Swine flu, oil, recession). The industry needs structural change to get into a sustainably profitable model. I want AMR to make hundreds of millions a quarter so I can go after my share.

Hasn't been a good time for pay increases this entire decade? I guess only the executives and the vaunted 800 deserve increases this decade in your myoptic view. Yes, there is always a crisis and excuse of "can't".....heard them all from the company and it's favorite union for decades. In addition, sprinkle in a good dose of fear just to make sure we "can't".

I've asked you this before, and still get no answer. Where were you after the 1995 twu debacle? When AMR went on to make BILLIONS in profits the late 90's, while twu members were locked in a 6 year concessionary contract. I believe the twu International was told to pack sand by AA management when they asked for a share of the spoils. "Sorry, we'll see you in 2001, you fools agreed to this BS 6 year 1.5% per year contract.....buh bye now".

Don't remember, choose not to, or not hired yet?

Apparently, it takes much more than hundreds of millions a quarter in profits. :unsure:

Your too scared about your job to question what AA spoon feeds you, at least by the company line you constantly tow here.

Bring on the Bankruptcy if that's the AMR busness plan......seems to be the popular airline fad. No more concessions for jobs while Geerard Ourpay runs to the bank with his Centerpork pals and the twu driving in his Gold Plated AArmored $$$$ truck.

 

[Barfbag]

Bring on the Bankruptcy if that's the AMR busness plan......seems to be the popular airline fad. No more concessions for jobs while Geerard Ourpay runs to the bank with his Centerpork pals and the twu driving in his Gold Plated AArmored $$$$ truck.

That's a lot of anger there.

Some of it is justifiable, the world has been cruel to this industry, and many airline households have been ruined in the wake of this economy.

I don't believe you can find any legacy that will make a 2009 profit, the whole industry is on track to incur even more debt, more Airline Bankruptcies to follow, even more families left holding on to an empty dream, as the economy, the housing sector has yet to hit bottom.

Still all Homeland Security employees, continue to receive pay and benefit increases, because their salaries are not tied to airline profits, just fees that they can raise at will.

Maybe we, this industry should rethink the model, if there is to be a future industry.

 

[The Goose]

That's a lot of anger there.

Some of it is justifiable, the world has been cruel to this industry, and many airline households have been ruined in the wake of this economy.

I don't believe you can find any legacy that will make a 2009 profit, the whole industry is on track to incur even more debt, more Airline Bankruptcies to follow, even more families left holding on to an empty dream, as the economy, the housing sector has yet to hit bottom.

Still all Homeland Security employees, continue to receive pay and benefit increases, because their salaries are not tied to airline profits, just fees that they can raise at will.

Maybe we, this industry should rethink the model, if there is to be a future industry.

Every bit of his anger is justifiable.

Until the BOD and Ourpay commit Hari Kari on the steps of Centrepork, there will be no forgivness, and maybe not even then.

Being lied to and getting to pay for the "privilege" is over the top, especially since neither the company nor union has any need in lying to the workers except to see what they can get away with - it's a game to them. I'm tired of games and so are others. Now, if we could only convince the suck-butts in company service not to play also.

Just like in 2003, they will not file for Chapter 11 - the BOD and the frat boys would no longer have control of the company. For them, that would not be a good thing. While not the strongest in the world, the bankruptcy reforms of 2005 takes a great deal of leverage away from the company.

We shall see.

 

[frontline]

I don't believe you can find any legacy that will make a 2009 profit, the whole industry is on track to incur even more debt, more Airline Bankruptcies to follow, even more families left holding on to an empty dream, as the economy, the housing sector has yet to hit bottom.

Still all Homeland Security employees, continue to receive pay and benefit increases, because their salaries are not tied to airline profits, just fees that they can raise at will.

Maybe we, this industry should rethink the model, if there is to be a future industry.

A great point and very well said. If other airlines were turning in big profits you could say AMR was being mismanaged. But that is not the case. The entire industry is in the dumps so adding billions in wage costs is just not going to happen.

 

[Hopeful]

A great point and very well said. If other airlines were turning in big profits you could say AMR was being mismanaged. But that is not the case. The entire industry is in the dumps so adding billions in wage costs is just not going to happen.

Why not? We gave up billions in wages and benefits in 2003 at AA alone.

 

[FrequentFlierCA]

I know you did. No one is denying that. But how do you plan to squeeze blood from the turnip that is AMR Corporation?

As for Hackman's comments about the poor timing of the mid-90's contract, my advice would be don't sign a six year agreement unless there are substantial wage increases involved! Right now your best bet would be a short-duration (say two year) contract that gives you a little bump and allows you to renegotiate in a couple years when things should be much better for the company financially.

Of course that's exactly what the AA offered earlier this year. Time to re-think.

 

[Hackman]

I know you did. No one is denying that. But how do you plan to squeeze blood from the turnip that is AMR Corporation?

As for Hackman's comments about the poor timing of the mid-90's contract, my advice would be don't sign a six year agreement unless there are substantial wage increases involved! Right now your best bet would be a short-duration (say two year) contract that gives you a little bump and allows you to renegotiate in a couple years when things should be much better for the company financially.

Of course that's exactly what the AA offered earlier this year. Time to re-think.

You should reserve your "expert" advice for your management friends who continue to squeeze all the blood money they need from the AMR turnip for themselves, seems to be millions for Centerpork at the feeding trough during these "dark days".

Do know what was in the AA offer you think was so great? Do tell. The agreement AA offered was an insult, nothing but more concessions along with a miniscule bump in pay that doesn't even cover inflation. No thanks.

Management should re-think the stalling negotiation tactics....and get serious about saving the airline....or bring on the bankruptcy.

 

[Hopeful]

I know you did. No one is denying that. But how do you plan to squeeze blood from the turnip that is AMR Corporation?

As for Hackman's comments about the poor timing of the mid-90's contract, my advice would be don't sign a six year agreement unless there are substantial wage increases involved! Right now your best bet would be a short-duration (say two year) contract that gives you a little bump and allows you to renegotiate in a couple years when things should be much better for the company financially.

Of course that's exactly what the AA offered earlier this year. Time to re-think.

FFCA,
That short term contract was not all it appeared to be as Hackman stated. It contained many a concession in return for the measly payout.

 

[Bob Owens]

The industry needs structural change to get into a sustainably profitable model.

Really? The industry as a whole has survived pretty well without that for 75 years. In fact its seen phenominal growth and depite the current anomaly its expected to continue to expand. Labor shouldnt stand by the sidelines waiting for their piece of "the profits" because profits may never materialize. Whatever revenue thats left over after everybody else grabs theirs will once again get funnelled to expansion (which the workers are hoodwinked into believing will translate into job security and "opportunity"). We need to grab more of the revenue. Our share of the revenue has shrunk dramatically, all we've done is give others the opportunity to grab more.

What really needs to happen is for airline labor to make structural changes to protect their members from the churn of assetts.

Profits? Forget about profits, go after the revenue like everyone else. If they want to throw us a bonus for profits fine, but to set our wages based on profits while everyone else simply grabs whatever they can is just plain dumb. For 75 years the industry hasnt had a sustainably profitable model, why worry about that now?