Additional widebody aircraft

[eolesen]

I may be wrong, but isn't the AA-JAL ATI deal and USA-Japan Open Skies treaty a done deal since late October or are they still awaiting some approvals?

Show cause was issued on 06-Oct, and final order was issued by DOT on 11-Nov. I completely forgot about it because the only thread where it was being discussed turned into "DL will rule the world"... 😉

I still say that anything important will be announced along with earnings... dumping a bunch of good news and/or airplane orders tends to overshadow how crappy earnings were. 😉

 

[commavia]

On a possibly-related topic, AA and JAL will be holding a joint press conference on Tuesday ... 😉

Show cause was issued on 06-Oct, and final order was issued by DOT on 11-Nov. I completely forgot about it because the only thread where it was being discussed turned into "DL will rule the world"... 😉

I still say that anything important will be announced along with earnings... dumping a bunch of good news and/or airplane orders tends to overshadow how crappy earnings were. 😉

Agreed. "Something" may well be announced with the Q4/2010 earnings call.

 

[WorldTraveler]

It appears that AA/JL's press conference was regarding the beginning of the joint venture in April.... w/o any mention of new routes or aircraft trades.

The 772ER can easily operate MIA-NRT if AA wanted to do it; it is almost the same distance as ORD-DEL which AA already operates and shorter than ATL-PVG which DL has flown w/ a 772ER (also RR engines).

Even if AA announced an order today, it is doubtful the would receive any new bulid 777s before the summer of 2012 given that Boeing typically requires 18 month notice to build widebodies. It is possible that AA and Boeing could have assigned something already and are simply waiting for an opportune time to announce the order.

It is still far more likely that if AA wants to grow fairly quickly they will pick up JAL's non-ER 773s which would free up 772ERs for Pacific growth.. and AA could put those planes in service in less than a year... but those will undoubtedly be used for US-LHR and some S. America routes but the 773 (nonER) does not have the capabilities to be a 6000 mile airplane nor to perform well from high or hot airports.

There is little need for AA or anyone to order the 777LR; if they want a longer range airplane, the economics of the 773ER are far better and there are very few routes that AA would be likely of doing that the 300ER cannot do compared to the LR. The sheer percentage of 773ER orders vs the LR is indicative of that.
Remember that DL ordered its LRs before the NW acquisition when DL was still very small in the Pacific and ATL was its best gateway to Asia. Further, DL was clearly eyeing ATL-JNB which the 773ER probably cannot do but which the LR is doing beautifully.

HND was nothing but an empty promise made by the Japanese gov't which is translating into unusable transpac slots. Indications are that none of the US-HND flights are doing well and it is highly possible that until decent slots are made available, many of the US-HND flights will be pulled or scaled considerably back.
In the promise that HND would be a viable gateway, JAL pulled down a substantial amount of NRT capacity which makes it even harder for them to compete - and of course outside of its two ORD-China flights (of which PEK has very poor slot times), AA's Pacific presence rides on JAL in Tokyo.

AA might eventually come up w/ a plan that will allow to a larger player in Asia but there has yet to be any indication that any significant growth or diversification away from JAL is coming anytime soon.

 

[jimntx]

The 772ER can easily operate MIA-NRT if AA wanted to do it; it is almost the same distance as ORD-DEL which AA already operates and shorter than ATL-PVG which DL has flown w/ a 772ER (also RR engines).

Well, fortunately or unfortunately (depending on your point of view), the equipment is not really the problem. It is getting the pilots to agree to the longer flight. It's what killed the plans for DFW-PEK. But, then that would probably entail agreeing to a new pilot TA which the company has no desire to do until forced. (That, of course, includes the flight attendants and the mechanics.)

 

[WorldTraveler]

Well, fortunately or unfortunately (depending on your point of view), the equipment is not really the problem. It is getting the pilots to agree to the longer flight. It's what killed the plans for DFW-PEK. But, then that would probably entail agreeing to a new pilot TA which the company has no desire to do until forced. (That, of course, includes the flight attendants and the mechanics.)

it is a given - as I have stated before - that there will be no growth at AA including new aircraft until at least the pilots agree to a new contract. Whether AA insists on any other groups' approvals in order to obtain new aircraft remains to be seen.

I still say that what AA most wants is to convert the 787 orders to firm and that can happen as soon as a new PWA is signed. The longer it takes to sign a PWA, the less need there is for any aircraft besides the 787. The only reason to obtain aircraft now is to obtain something larger but equally capable for longhaul ops (like the 773ER) or in order to quickly get capacity into the system (which the JL 773 nonERs would do).

Given AA's general dislike for fleet diversity and the capabilities of each of the potential aircraft, the most likely scenario is 773ERs which still would require an 18 month lead time and which would not become obsolete when the 789s enter service.

If someone starts posting that a pilot agreement is close at hand, then talk of aircraft additions to the fleet begin to make sense.

 

[Mach85ER]

Well, fortunately or unfortunately (depending on your point of view), the equipment is not really the problem. It is getting the pilots to agree to the longer flight. It's what killed the plans for DFW-PEK. But, then that would probably entail agreeing to a new pilot TA which the company has no desire to do until forced. (That, of course, includes the flight attendants and the mechanics.)

Jim,

The pilots didn't kill the DFW-PEK route. It's an urban legend put out by the company after they learned from politcal circles that there was zero chance for AA. Run the flight plan for the route again, DFW-ORD-PEK in the wintertime? Nice plan against a non-stop 747-400 from IAD. Throw in a little jumpseat war regarding the Captain's jumpseats in the cabin, and some wifi issues, and AMR gets a little mileage out of a no-win chance for a route award.

The MIA-HND/NRT agreement with APA could be done overnight. Just do it like the ORD-DEL side letter. It was a non-precent setting agreement. agree to crew MIA-HND/NRT with 2 CA's and 2 FO's (Gee, like Delta does) in a non-precedent setting agreement and the deal will be done in hours. Toss in a side letter that the pilots get business class or better with Deadheads over 5 hours (like Delta), and seat assignment in the order of the NS, and it gets done in minutes.

Don't like two CA's on the route? It's about $65/hour. If they crap a route over a grand each way, then it probably wasn't viable in the first place. R/T on Kayak coach is $500 each way. They won't miss an opportunity to blame the pilots again if it happens, and the uninformed can bite down on the AMR fishing hook and believe it.

 

[WorldTraveler]

Mach,
your explanation would make sense if AA chose not to fliy ANY PEK route but they did apply for and won ORD-PEK - which was ultimately delayed and is now operating but undoubtedly performing nowhere near what it could have done if flown w/ decently timed slots from DFW as originally proposed. Now, AA is having to compete against UA out of ORD and they surely knew when they applied for DFW-PEK that AA underperforms UA in revenue performance on every ORD-Asia route on which both compete. It is doubtful that AA will ever start another ORD route if UA also operates on the same route - which is why they tried to start LAX-China only to have UA jump on top of that rotue too.

AA's proposal was that they would operate the only nonstop from the southern US to China and that is still true for PEK. DL did start ATL-PVG, suspended it, and is now restarting it but until DL starts DTW-PEK there is still no more PEK service to the eastern half of the US than there was when AA proposed the DFWPEK route.

Sorry, but every indication is that AA's DFW-PEK was its last best opportunity for a new China flight and there is no economic justification for AA walking away from the route.

I still think that AA's current pilot union leaders recognize that accommodating AA's growth plans should be a priority and that we will see int'l growth soon... problem is that outside of DFW, AA has competitive considerations that limit its ability to develop its Pacific network.

 

[Mach85ER]

World,

Question is whether DFW-PEK even had a chance. I don't know, don't think so, but that's just pulling bovine excrement out of somewhere.

The true statement is that it could have gotten done for low cost. Hotel WIFI for the pilots? I have to think hard at the few that don't offer it for free. Most holdouts are in the Caribbean, but they're still in the 1950's and will remain so. Pilot use of Cabin Jumpseats? Assuming the pilots came after FA's in priority, it would be a win/win for both groups. 2 CA's/FO's on long haul? Already standard at Delta. Same goes for DH priority. In the end, it's $65/hour difference for a 777FO v a 777CA.

The question remains, did they want a deal or not? If they could have made money on DFW-PEK nonstop, they would have to rank as one of the biggest fools in the history of airlines for not closing the deal with all parties, including the pilots. If a company can't make up the difference of a $500/leg average over other carriers on a 15 hour long haul flight, maybe some marketing managers need to find another career. It's just another product, sell the #$%@ D@#$ thing.

 

[jimntx]

The true statement is that it could have gotten done for low cost. Hotel WIFI for the pilots? I have to think hard at the few that don't offer it for free.

Do the pilots get separate hotel amenities than the flight attendants? Every layover I have at a major chain hotel--such as Westin, Marriott, Hilton, and Sheraton--we are still charged for any Internet connectivity in the room. "It's free here in the lobby, but there's $9.95 charge in your room." Thing that really gets me is if you go to a Motel 6 or some other budget hotel/motel, they offer free wifi in the rooms. It's only the most expensive places we stay that still charge. Occasionally, at checkin they tell us that it's free for us. We have to "accept" the charges and then they remove them from the bill.

There was one hotel (I wish I could remember which one) that even the free wifi in the lobby required a code that the front desk would give us. I later found out that the same code worked in our rooms, but they didn't tell us that. I tried it on a hunch figuring that if it didn't work, nothing lost.

 

[IORFA]

Please explain how letting pilots on F/A J/S's is a win-win for both groups? I have never heard of any sort of benefit to the F/A's. Besides APFA owns the F/A J/S. It is ours to give away, not AA's to give away.

 

[Mach85ER]

Please explain how letting pilots on F/A J/S's is a win-win for both groups? I have never heard of any sort of benefit to the F/A's. Besides APFA owns the F/A J/S. It is ours to give away, not AA's to give away.

IORFA,

I want to be clear on the subject. First, I'm not totally sold on trying to get the permission because it's the FA's workspace. We both know there can be a huge difference between 5'5", 110lb "Suzy" and 6'5", 250lb "Mikey". It's pretty awkward and I personally would probably skip the ride rather than tap dance for 3 hours while trying to do the right thing and stay out of the way. Narrowbody in the forward galley? Like standing behind the counter of a busy bar. There's nowhere to hide.
Second part would be if it was approved, any pilot would only use a seat if there wasn't any non-rev FA's using it, and they would absolutely go behiind the FA's in priority for the seat. What would be the win? An example would be a FA on a non-rev trip with her husband and child and there is only 1 pax seat left. She gets a CJ, the pilot with an assigned pax seat ahead of them on the priority list gives up his seat and takes another CJ (assume cockpit is full of W's), and her husband and kid get on. On another flight, an FA's parents might be D2 and out of luck with a full cockpit, all seats assigned. Two pilots with assigned seats take 2 unused CJ seats and her D2 parents get on the flight.
Personally, I'd rather just have a big enough payraise so I can afford a full fare seat if I need it once in awhile rather than deal with an airplane version of hitchhiking on top of a Indian train. I think the train ride would be more enjoyable. 😉

 

[Mach85ER]

Do the pilots get separate hotel amenities than the flight attendants?

In the past, it's been rare but sometimes the Captains did, mainly in Latin America. Internet mostly, sometimes a suite. As FO I never had a problem with it.

The nicer and bigger hotel chains seem to be used to travelers with expense accounts for everything including internet. That doesn't excuse the times when we ask about the internet, one clerk says "sure, you airline crews get it free", and another clerk comes over and says that AA is the only airline crew that doesn't get it free.

Ever see the one place with the nice sign "Free Breakfast 6-9" and the handwritten note underneath "except American Airlines crews"?

Real classy watching SWA and UAL crews wander in for food. The hotel guests usually did a double take too.

 

[wcs]

The 772ER can easily operate MIA-NRT if AA wanted to do it; it is almost the same distance as ORD-DEL which AA already operates

It's more complex than that. Simply measuring a great circle distance and comparing it to a operating segment doesn't take winds into account.
The ORD-DEL flights' polar routing minimizes headwinds. Even with that the flight is frequently payload restricted. MIA-NRT westbound operations could
not operate "easily" with AA's current fleet.

 

[WorldTraveler]

It's more complex than that. Simply measuring a great circle distance and comparing it to a operating segment doesn't take winds into account.
The ORD-DEL flights' polar routing minimizes headwinds. Even with that the flight is frequently payload restricted. MIA-NRT westbound operations could
not operate "easily" with AA's current fleet.

except that DL operates ATL-NRT and other SE US to Asia routings on 772ERs with RR engines - which AA used to maintain BTW, even if DL chose to upgrade its engines to 895s while I believe AA did not.
ATL-NRT and MIA-NRT follow nearly identical routings... and MIA-NRT should be a 16 hr block flight in the winter, within the range of a 772ER.

but again we have heard from some for years that AA would start MIA-NRT and it hasn't happened yet... perhaps partly because MIA-NRT only would serve Japan-MIA-Latin America.... other carriers also serve more cities in Asia-USA-Latin America so the notion that AA would take that market is a stretch.

But if you insist that something besides the 772ER is needed, the route won't happen at least until the summer of 2012 because there aren't 772LRs or 773ERs available for AA to pick up..... I think everyone can agree JL is not parting w/ their 773ERs.

 

[Redhead1]

There is a rumor on the line that we are getting
4 777-300 and 4 747-400 from japan airlines. Has
Anyone else heard about this?

Yes, and what I heard is not a Rumor. Between 25 and 30 B777s are headed to AA. When I hear more, I will post again.