Airbus pitches A380 to UA; will they bite?

[WorldTraveler]

will be interesting to see how this plays out....

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3228646-implications-of-a-united-airlines-a380-superjumbo-order?auth_param=6rl2l:1amqk2u:a9d4c3296ab900262c3575a92492c747&uprof=45


with Malaysian's intent to get rid of its A380s on top of Skymark's BK, pricing on the A380 has got to be sinking to very low levels.

While the article's point about SFO being one of the few US airline hubs that could fill the plane to Asia is true, there is so much new capacity that is coming into the US-Asia market and will regardless of what UA does that it is hard to believe that using the A380 as the single aircraft to solve UA's capacity needs makes sense.

UA doesn't fill anywhere close to a majority of its SFO-Asia flights with local SFO traffic and can route other traffic including to China over other hubs using existing or on order aircraft.

 

[FWAAA]

Someone posting to Flyertalk spent most of the past month writing that the most sensible buyer for the MH A380s was AA, but nearly everyone who responded in that thread pointed out that AA buying A380s would be sheer lunacy. IMO, A380s would be a mistake at UA, DL or AA. The USA is far too large with far too many international gateways for the A380 to make sense.

The A380 can be rationalized for certain routes in and out of LHR (BA flying LAX-LHR, for example), but even then, it's rationalization, not true economic justification.

 

[eolesen]

Read this earlier today, and am quite skeptical. How exactly does an airline "trial" an aircraft?...

If UA had better labor relations, they might be able to get away with a short-term wetlease with perhaps LH crew.

I just don't see that happening, nor would I expect a 1:1 swap on A350 options/orders. UA would have to go for a 2:1 at a minimum.

 

[jimntx]

I think that just the idea of the A380 is past.  The world has changed, and people--particularly, in the USA--are not willing to wait on anything.  The concept of the A380 suggests that there are one or two daily flights, maybe 3, between specific city pairs.  In the past, people adjusted their travel plans according to the available flights.  Now, they expect the airline to adjust it's schedule to accommodate the passenger.  "What?  You only have a 9am and a 10am departure to ORD from DFW!  I need a 9:03am departure.  I'll  fly United.  Call me when you decide to offer a more flexible schedule."
 
Today, we have to offer more departures.  So, if we know that on a given day we can sell  only 1000 tickets to a particular destination, it has to be on smaller aircraft departing more frequently.

 

[robbedagain]

why would they need a 4 engine aircraft when a twin engine can do the job  and even go further     I'd be surprised if the A380 goes into service with UA but stranger things have happened.   It sounds like AB is possibly trying anything to get rid of the planes??

 

[eolesen]

I was just told by someone at UA that the A380 CA rates in their current contract are ~$100/hr more than what exists on the 744/777/787, and that the FO rates would be higher than what a 757 CA currently makes.

Even if the airplanes were at cost, please explain how that's going to help the business case?...

 

[FWAAA]

Here's the Flyertalk discussion in the UA forum from the past couple of days:

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/united-airlines-mileageplus/1684321-rumor-ua-may-buy-a380.html

Some impassioned arguments in that thread in favor of the A380s, written by people who (IMO) don't appreciate the economics of the situation. I don't think that A380s would be a wise acquisition for UA, DL or AA even if they were free.

 

[WorldTraveler]

I'm sure this is a Hail Mary on Airbus' part to try and get another customer for the A380 but it seems hard to believe that any US carrier would find even a free airplane as part of a viable business plan.

UA's SFO-PVG is only half local and the rest connections, many of which can be carried over other hubs, including LAX. SFO-PEK is even less local.

and UA still has to deal with increased competition from other US and foreign carriers and as jim has noted, the way to compete is to offer more flights and thus more options, not add more seats on big planes that have to be filled on a year round basis.

 

[ThirdSeatHero]

I really don't see how 2 aircraft of any fleet type makes sense from an operational sense but something is stirring. Found out today our training department here in SFO has been contacted about the plane.  What ever is going on it must be one hell of an offer as the sCAL upper management dislikes the airbus, and was making significant noise about going back to an all Boeing fleet. Now we have used A320s & A380s(maybe) coming online.

 

[eolesen]

FWIW, AA had a two aircraft 74SP fleet for about five years, initially waiting for the MD11 to arrive but then it hung around for a few more years because AA was short on international widebodies. It was expensive as all get-out, but in 1987 was the only aircraft capable of flying DFW-NRT.

There's really no such argument for UA's current network.

That said... this has apparently been making the rounds:

 

[WorldTraveler]

the economics of the 747SP were horrendous as well but it was the only way for AA to serve DFW to Asia. and they dropped them as soon as the M11 came along and then dropped those as soon as the 777 came along.

Airbus is simply trying to offer planes to UA that it cannot sell in hopes that UA will become intoxicated with the notion of flying the world's largest airliner and order some of its own.

If UA bites, it will be a watershed mark in UA's inability to make sound market-based decisions which they have not done since the merger and why AA and DL handedly outperform UA in practically every desirable metric of running an airline and business.

 

[eolesen]

Looks like UA's CFO felt compelled to speak up...

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/04/united-airlines-fleet-idUSL1N0YQ00Z20150604

 

[jimntx]

From the article:
 
"In the report, Rainey said his main concern was the A380's trip cost, which is higher than the trip cost of smaller Boeing Co 787 Dreamliners already in United's fleet. He said flying a route multiple times on smaller aircraft rather than once on a large plane pleases business travelers by giving them more choice."  See also Post #4 this thread.
 
I'm not one to say I told you so [semi-colon however comma...]   

 

[WorldTraveler]

either he is negotiating with Airbus or the article isn't accurate since it says they are talking with Airbus but it isn't the right aircraft.

If it is the wrong aircraft and they know that, there should be nothing else to discuss.

 

[topDawg]

Read this earlier today, and am quite skeptical. How exactly does an airline "trial" an aircraft?...

If UA had better labor relations, they might be able to get away with a short-term wetlease with perhaps LH crew.

I just don't see that happening, nor would I expect a 1:1 swap on A350 options/orders. UA would have to go for a 2:1 at a minimum.

They don't even need to wet lease. Via the JV UA can see the numbers on the 380. I know DL is not overly thrilled about the AF 380s...... 
 

either he is negotiating with Airbus or the article isn't accurate since it says they are talking with Airbus but it isn't the right aircraft.

If it is the wrong aircraft and they know that, there should be nothing else to discuss.

these discussion happen all the time. Generally the OEM pitches something to the airline. 
 
example. Delta has had talks with Airbus and Boeing for the 380/748. I will be president of Cuba before either happens but they have had (many) talks about it. 
 
it happens even more when the OEM is disparate to sell the planes like B/AB are with the 748/380.
 
Fact is, to get these planes in the US they will probably be free.