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Airline Industry Frankenstein Could Creak To Life

USA320Pilot said:
Is anybody stunned that according to the Financial Times the combined carrier could emerge with significantly more than $2 billion in total liquidity, making it one of the best-financed US airlines?

Let's break it down:
$375-500mil in new equity financing
$100-250mil loan from Airbus
$254mil unrestricted cash from HP
$513mil unrestricted cash from US
+ any cash generation during the summer (predicted by both carriers, to lead into the cash drain that is September...

So... adding it up, that's $1.24 to 1.52 Billion in Liquidity + whatever they are able to create during the busy summer season.

Since we had all heard the reports of a requirement for $375mil in equity financing for the past couple of weeks (via the AirWisc and Republic deals), this is hardly stunning. Neither is the cash from the two companies.

The only interesting part in my mind is the loan from Airbus. I would think that this company would not want any additional debt... Remember, lots of US Airways and America West assets are already encumbered, and there is an outstanding $1Bil (roughly) balance due to loans guaranteed by the ATSB.

From the published reports, it appears that the Republic deal (specifically the sale of commuter slots and EMB-170/190 aircraft/rights) is not going to happen... Which I predicted a few weeks ago. I believe I said something along the lines of I beleive AWA will value these items...
 
funguy2 said:
Let's break it down:
$375-500mil in new equity financing
[post="270089"][/post]​
Agreed
funguy2 said:
$254mil unrestricted cash from HP
[post="270089"][/post]​
Agreed, again. (though see next item for possible exceptions)
funguy2 said:
$513mil unrestricted cash from US
[post="270089"][/post]​
While labeled "unrestricted" is ATSB cash collateral - how much will be truely unrestricted when we emerge from BK (or after June)?
funguy2 said:
$100-250mil loan from Airbus
[post="270089"][/post]​
For the US current orders and the envisioned 20 A350's, there no deposits/progress payments in place. How much of this will be left after 12 months? 24 months?
funguy2 said:
+ any cash generation during the summer (predicted by both carriers, to lead into the cash drain that is September...
[post="270089"][/post]​
Agreed
funguy2 said:
$100-250mil loan from Airbus
So... adding it up, that's $1.24 to 1.52 Billion in Liquidity + whatever they are able to create during the busy summer season.
[post="270089"][/post]​
Minus ATSB required minimum cash balances going forward, minus deposits/progress payments for current US Airbus orders, minus deposits/progress payments for A350 orders, minus ATSB payments (IIRC $30-some million semi-annually for HP and $180-some million semi-annually for US starting 10/1/06.

Jim
 
Good points Boeing Boy... although, presumably "resticted cash" will decrease as the ATSB-guaranteed loans are repaid.

And you make a good point about the payment schedule for the loans. I guess the idea of how much liquidity a merged US-HP will have is relative to a number of items not discussed in public... Those items being anticipated cash generation (and operational profit/loss plays a big part here) and the moment in time when you are measuring... Are we looking at a $1.5Bil cash peak? or is than an annual average? Is that June 30th or December 31st? etc. I have not seen a timeframe broken out. Presumably, the companies would provide some details on this topic to the analysts should they announce the deal.
 
Lots of questions, few answers, though I suspect the ATSB holds the most important answers in their hands. Will they say "No way, Jose"? If not, will they demand that the loan be paid off - resulting in US/HP merely being the conduit for the money from the investors/lenders to the ATSB lenders? Will they say "Yes" but go back to the pre-BK "cash on hand" requirements? Will they maintain lower requirements post-US/HP transaction? Etc.

Jim
 
I think the atsb will be happy if payments are made ontime.
face it the agreement they have now should be easy to live by
 
USA320Pilot said:
Is anybody stunned that according to the Financial Times the combined carrier could emerge with significantly more than $2 billion in total liquidity, making it one of the best-financed US airlines?

Regards,

USA320Pilot
[post="269866"][/post]​

Or

For some observers, that suggests double trouble. As one former senior airline executive puts it, “it is like combining two one-legged men.
 
BoeingBoy said:
Lots of questions, few answers, though I suspect the ATSB holds the most important answers in their hands. Will they say "No way, Jose"? If not, will they demand that the loan be paid off - resulting in US/HP merely being the conduit for the money from the investors/lenders to the ATSB lenders? Will they say "Yes" but go back to the pre-BK "cash on hand" requirements? Will they maintain lower requirements post-US/HP transaction?

... All these questions will be answered, and more, on the next episode of, "As The Airline Flies"

<insert music here>

😛 😛

All kidding aside, I suspect you are correct BoeingBoy... I suspect 1ab has hit the nail on the head...

Or, perhaps the ATSB will require a slight prepayment (i.e. pay off the balance of the HP loan now... No payments for 2 years... then resume paying down the US portion of the loan... I can envision such a requirement, although its purely speculation on my part.
 
Agreed, 1ab is most likely right. The big question in my mind is the minimum cash balance going forward, which will affect how much cash we really have to operate with.

Jim
 
This is wonderful news for US Air. I'm sure that UAL will end up ahead of the game in the end too. Funny how all the 'other' legacies have been calling for both our deaths, dividing our assets, etc, etc, etc. Karma is a *itch. Too all at US (except ONE particular pilot), wtg!!!!, I think you did it.
 
Jim,

We both know that money is a secondary issue when it comes to the ATSB.

Despite whatever the Congressional mandate might have been, the primary focusof the ATSB has been to force change in the Airline Industry in line with what the current administration desires.

Acting as a hammer to force labor concessions was the first move, but acting as a supporter of consolidation is the next. This is exactly the sort of thing they want to have happen.
 
Rico,

I'm not sure I'd go quite that far. Taken to it's logical conclusion, the ATSB would drop all minimum collateral requirements (especially cash) to insure US's survival in your scenerio. So far, at least, they've maintained those requirements at a high enough level to protect the taxpayers.

On the other hand, the ATSB has obviously had the power to shut US down at any time since Sept 12, but they haven't.

My guess (and that's all it is) is that the ATSB will play along with pretty much anything reasonable as long as the taxpayers aren't at any risk. When or it that point comes, we'll see if you're right and they're willing to leave the taxpayers swinging in the breeze or if they pull the plug.

Hopefully it won't reach that point.

Jim
 
BoeingBoy said:
Minus ATSB required minimum cash balances going forward, minus deposits/progress payments for current US Airbus orders, minus deposits/progress payments for A350 orders, minus ATSB payments (IIRC $30-some million semi-annually for HP and $180-some million semi-annually for US starting 10/1/06.

Just to insert the actual numbers for AWA, they owed just a hair above $300 million on their government-guaranteed loans as of 3/31/05 ($300.3 million, actually). Their repayment schedule involves semi-annual payments of $42.9 million that occur during the first and third quarters; there are seven payments of ten remaining.

The concerns about AWA's liquidity have been triggered by the fact that two additional payments on the ATSB-guaranteed loans, assuming that the airline is cash-neutral otherwise, would take them from unrestricted cash and short-term investments of $233.7 million as of 3/31/05 to $147.9 million in the first quarter of 2006. That is not a comfortable cash position for an airline the size of AWA.

funguy2 said:
Good points Boeing Boy... although, presumably "resticted cash" will decrease as the ATSB-guaranteed loans are repaid.

I don't believe that the funds used to repay portions of the ATSB loans appear in the "Restricted cash" items until just before the payments become due. My understanding is that a good portion of the restricted cash is the reserve required by the credit card issuers to protect against losses they may incur if the company fails to deliver services to cardholders. That said, it is likely that a solvent airline with a better credit rating would probably face less stringent cash requirements from the credit card issuers, and this would help move cash from the restricted pile to the unrestricted pile.

Given that $300 million is still owned on the AWA loan, I expect that an early repayment would be a damaging drain on the merged airline's liquidity.
 
sfb said:
I don't believe that the funds used to repay portions of the ATSB loans appear in the "Restricted cash" items until just before the payments become due.  My understanding is that a good portion of the restricted cash is the reserve required by the credit card issuers to protect against losses they may incur if the company fails to deliver services to cardholders.  That said, it is likely that a solvent airline with a better credit rating would probably face less stringent cash requirements from the credit card issuers, and this would help move cash from the restricted pile to the unrestricted pile.

Given that $300 million is still owned on the AWA loan, I expect that an early repayment would be a damaging drain on the merged airline's liquidity.
[post="270403"][/post]​

Let me be clearer:

I believe HP's unrestricted cash requirement for ATSB-guaranteed loans is $100mil, and as you stated, they really need more than that, anyways.

However, US's unrestricted cash requirement for ATSB-guaranteed loans, for a long time, was essentially the balance on the loan... The first (and only, to my knowledge) prepayment was triggered, if you recall, when US Airways' unrestricted cash balance fell below the amount owed (it was around $976mil, IIRC). They prepayed a certain amount ($226mil) and the new balance and required unrestricted cash was around $750mil. After that, when approaching $750mil unrestricted cash, they filed BK2 and they negotiated to reduce the unrestricted cash requirements to get where we are today, which is some kind of weekly/monthly requirement based on management projections. Although, I thought the cash requirement being less than the loan balance was only a temporary thing... That is what generated my previous comment about the unrestricted cash requirement declining as the loan balance declines... Like everything else in this proposed transaction, it is probably subject to negotiation. The good news here is that ATSB folks are probably relatively comfortable with HP management.

That said, I believe you are correct in that cash seems to accrue into a "restricted" cash line on the cash flow statement up until the ATSB-backed loan payment is made. But that is different from the loan conditions to which I was refering.
 
funguy2 said:
Let me be clearer:

I believe HP's unrestricted cash requirement for ATSB-guaranteed loans is $100mil, and as you stated, they really need more than that, anyways.

Agreed; it would perhaps be more accurate to talk about an "unrestricted cash requirement" instead of "restricted cash" since the latter carries a specific meaning with respect to the balance sheet.

However, US's unrestricted cash requirement for ATSB-guaranteed loans, for a long time, was essentially the balance on the loan... The first (and only, to my knowledge) prepayment was triggered, if you recall, when US Airways' unrestricted cash balance fell below the amount owed (it was around $976mil, IIRC). They prepayed a certain amount ($226mil) and the new balance and required unrestricted cash was around $750mil.

Actually, I'm fairly certain it was neither the first nor the only prepayment, since the original loan was for $1,000 million (i.e. $1 billion). It was the largest prepayment and the first significant one. It was actually triggered by the issuance of a "going concern" warning by the company's auditors in connection with their 2003 10-K filing; the appearance of this warning would have put the company in violation of the covenants associated with the loan guarantee without the renegotiated terms and prepayment of $250 million made at the time.

See US AIRWAYS AND ATSB RESTRUCTURE LOAN for more details.

The cash restrictions were as follows:

US Airways also agreed to a loan covenant that its minimum unrestricted cash balance would not fall below the lower of $700 million and the outstanding balance of the loan at each month until its “going concern paragraphâ€￾ is removed, at which point the unrestricted cash covenant will be reduced to $500 million.

I believe there have been some small repayments on the loans since as well, as the outstanding balance is lower than $726 million.

After that, when approaching $750mil unrestricted cash, they filed BK2 and they negotiated to reduce the unrestricted cash requirements to get where we are today, which is some kind of weekly/monthly requirement based on management projections. Although, I thought the cash requirement being less than the loan balance was only a temporary thing... That is what generated my previous comment about the unrestricted cash requirement declining as the loan balance declines... Like everything else in this proposed transaction, it is probably subject to negotiation. The good news here is that ATSB folks are probably relatively comfortable with HP management.

Actually, the bankruptcy filing was largely due, IIRC, to a significant amount in pension contributions coming due in mid-September and October -- and I suspect it was more or less unavoidable by mid-summer, even with renegotiated contracts.

Of course, the actual bankruptcy filing itself was a violation of the loan guarantee covenants, so the renegotiated terms included the more detailed weekly cash balance requirements.

Now, I don't know what ATSB's position will be on the merged/reorganized company, but I imagine that the covenants will reflect the size of the outstanding loans. I suspect that the repayment schedule will be adjusted in some way.
 
sfb - as usual... We agree more than we disagree... I will disagree with a few knit-pick-y items, but by and large I believe your statements to be accurate.

My recollection is that it is the only PRE-payment forced by what was anticipated to be a breach of the loan covenent. I believe the timing was close to the "going concern" clause, but I don't recall role of the auditor's statement in pushing an ATSB action. Certainly, both events seems to occur in the same timeframe.

I suspect that the reason why the loan balance has been reduced is that the anticipated REGULAR payments have been made since... I think Boeing Boy said they were around $180mil due twice each year.

And I think you are right... I think the merged US-HP will negotiation the entire ATSB-backed loan package altogether... It makes sense to approach that now, while gaining approval for the merger (which I am sure both company's loans require).
 

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