Airline's (pit) Departure May Ripple Outward

[cavalier]

some possibly very ugly for U employees, and will take months to play out.

Everything posted on these boards has this identical theme.

I think we should all do like is done in Algebra, the positive sign is understood, and here on these boards it is also understood we the U employee are in for a royal screwing no matter what the scenario.

I found the one topic to be funny with it's title. More big Changes Ahead for Employees.

Gee you mean we haven't yet experienced BIG changes.

I have seen a ton of my fellow co-workers hit the streets, and the remaining were wounded and wondering when they will be next. I have seen all of our contracts violated ending up in court. I have seen people literally take their own life over this airline out of despair, and I have seen so much more that would bring tears to grown men. And then I read a topic with such a title, I had to laugh.

 

[ktflyhome]

Cav and AOG: You both are so right. Every post does come around to the same topic. But I still get a good laugh now and then.

 

[ClueByFour]

According to a presentation I attended given by Stephen Wolf, United's strategic analysis conducted by their E&FA Department concluded the previous merger would have generated an additional $1.6 to $1.9 billion per year.

That's additional revenue to the combined business entity. Granted, post September 11 and in light of the in-court restructurings, the number would be lower, but if the revenue is just half of the E&FA analysis, the additional combined incremental revenue would see a dramatic increase.

Wolf went on to say the economy of scale cost savings would be significant, however, he did not provide a specific number. Cost cuts would be obtained from common facility use, joint purchasing, joint advertising, reduced parts inventory, reduced distribution expense, streamlined work forces, etc.

What's interesting is that in order for each company to survive -- the two companies will merge.

Respectfully,

USA320Pilot

Except for one small problem:

Wolf and his analysts managed to run the airline into the ground. Or did you miss that part?

Listening to any strategy about running US from Wolf is like taking Labor Relations advice from Frank Lorenzo: neither were very good at the respective skills listed.

Due to the costs (notably labor integration), it is simply easier for UA to wait for U to fold and cherry pick the assets it really wants. AA/TWA proved this beyond a doubt.

 

[USA320Pilot]

Clue:

The problem with your theory is that the ATSB has let it be known United's present preliminary plan, without a POR, will not be approved for a loan guarantee. That's why United is seeking more cuts by reducing retiree health care benefits and closing the Miami crew base. In fact, you can expect more labor concessions at United too.

See Story

It appears United's cost cuts are not enough and the ATSB believes United's revenue projections are optimistic, in light of US Airways' issues.

By the way, David Bronner has the money.

Respectfully,

USA320Pilot

 

[Chinook]

As for UAL's revenue projections, it seems to me they have exceeded expectations up to this point, with all DIP requirements met, and a couple of months with operating profits. US, on the other hand, seems to be falling below expectations. I don't think you can always assume what imperils US will also hurt UAL. The two banks offering exit financing said all of UALs projections are conservative, they've seen the numbers and read the plan, and are basing their comments on the real facts of the new business plan.
As others have mentioned, I believe UAL is getting the most out of the Ch 11 process, while US exited quickly for some reason, without making all of the needed changes.
In other news today, Frontier Airlines stock is taking a beating due to the competition from Ted, and the fact that all of Frontier's eggs are in the Denver basket.
Also, I went through Dulles over the weekend, and station workers are quite optimistic over the new express arrangements, which will end up being much better for the UAL customer than the current ACA arrangement, as all ops will be based at the current C and D concourse used by UAL. It looks like they are moving along well on plans for an alternative course of action for UAX.
I hope US can keep things going and strengthen, as I believe the codeshare is good for both carriers. Cheers, and hope that storm out east doesn't ball things up too bad.

 

[ClueByFour]

The problem with your theory is that the ATSB has let it be known United's present preliminary plan, without a POR, will not be approved for a loan guarantee. That's why United is seeking more cuts by reducing retiree health care benefits and closing the Miami crew base. In fact, you can expect more labor concessions at United too.

See Story

It appears United's cost cuts are not enough and the ATSB believes United's revenue projections are optimistic, in light of US Airways' issues.

By the way, David Bronner has the money.

Here's the thing: United (unlike the hatchet job that ALPA took at US) is actually trying to be labor friendly about what it is doing with the retirement changes (eg, forming a comittee of impacted parties, etc). If that fails, like US did, they can still go to the judge.

If (and I've yet to see this in a published report) the UA application somehow relies upon US code-share revenue, all UA really has to do is inform the ATSB that they will attempt to cherry pick prime US assets during the subsequent liquidation. It's easy to argue that the latter (cherry picking the carcass of US) is actually a better business strategy than the code share itself. Moreover, sources say that US has asked UA to stop selling UA's cheapest seats on US metal to "help out" their codeshare partner. If US had to ask, it does not sound like UA is really making money hand over fist on the codeshare revenue.

Finally, since Bronner has threatened to liquidate US Airways to protect his investment, what makes you believe he would throw another billion or so at United? I know these published remarks from the Chairman of the Board are difficult to rectify with your insinuation that he would front the money for a transaction with United, but it's really time to face reality: it's not going to happen.

 

[AOG-N-IT]

Amen Clue !!!

.....and that's the name of that sad tune in a nutshell !! "It ain't gonna happen !!! "

 

[USA320Pilot]

Clue:

You're dead wrong and I know for fact it's going to occur.

Respectfully,

USA320Pilot

 

[insp89]

what kind of changes to teh cbas would take place and how would the folks like me in an expressed (or outsourced mainline) city be affected since it is the folks in these small cities that dont really count when it comes to the iam contract issues?

Mechanics taken COMPLETELY off of Reciept & Dispatch, 60 Airbuses in exchange for Pilot & F/A work rule changes, ( Oh, and by the way , some of these airbuses will be REPLACEMENT aircraft for the planes that are parked due to being out of time, No need for "S" checks for quite some time.) The closing of PIT Heavy Maint. & CLT Heavy Maint. and consolidated to UAL's deserted INDY hangar. Hate to admit it, US320PILOT just may be on to something about this merger talk, (But not until both companies squeeze the last ounce of blood out of their respective employees.) I do not claim to have any prophetic abilities, just pure speculation & observation on my part. Time will Tell.

 

[ojxux]

usa320pilot wrote:

What's interesting is that in order for each company to survive -- the two companies will merge.


You have been saying USAIR was going to buy UA - LMAO

 

[767jetz]

United pilots have contractually agreed to ALPA Merger Policy.



...why does this topic generate more views that any other threads)?

#1) United pilots always agreed to ALPA merger policy. Remember the words "career expectation." I don't remember that changing at all. IMO that is the exact reason some US pilots like yourself will sell their souls to the devil to get 60 more jets on the property. You believe this will increase your chances of a higher position when the judge considers career expectations.

I do remember that ALPA merger policy says nothing about date of hire, which is something many US pilots, including yourself if I'm not mistaken, proposed.

#2) Because you keep bringing it up as if it's a forgone conclusion, even though you show no proof, quote no legitimate sources, and have been wrong so often before. If you talk (lie) about us, we will come and respond. It's that simple. Now get over yourself.

Good day.

 

[767jetz]

The problem with your theory is that the ATSB has let it be known United's present preliminary plan, without a POR, will not be approved for a loan guarantee.

Really?? Care to tell us how you know this? Has someone broken the law and told you personally what UA and the ATSB have said to each other?

There is nothing in the quoted article about United not getting the ATSB loan. Once again you are lying and spreading misinformation.

Here's a thought for you, Sherlock... Did it ever cross your thick skull that maybe the ATSB knows that USAir will liquidate, and they are asking UA to cut some more cost to make up for the $200 Million in lost revenue we will experience when that happens?

HMMMMMM...

 

[767jetz]

Clue:

You're dead wrong and I know for fact it's going to occur.

Really?? Well it's about friggin' time! Some facts!

Please share those facts with us, won't you?

LMFAO!

tick,tock,tick,tock...

 

[savyinvestor]

Well put 767! USA320Pilot career expectations include flying UAL heavies at the expense of UAL pilots. To improve ones position in life at the expense of another is beyond sad! I hope U remains a viable entity, but not at your expense. Savy

 

[USA320Pilot]

I find it interesting certain United employees do not post on this forum until I mention their company, then they instantly come out of the woodwork. If there is nothing to my reports, then why do these posters respond?

Separately, United has set a date to emerge from Chapter 1, which is June 30, however, the airline has now scheduled Omnibus hearings through the end of 2004. The hearing schedule is:

January 16, 2004
February 20, 2004
March 19, 2004
April 16, 2004
May 21, 2004
June 18, 2004
July 23, 2004
August 20, 2004
September 17, 2004
October 22, 2004
November 19, 2004
December 17, 2004

My question is if the company is going to emerge from bankruptcy by June 30, then why is there a need to schedule Omnibus hearings until the end of the year. Is Judge Wedoff's schedule that tight?

Also noteworthy, the company must file its business plan and plan or reorganization with the court by the first week of March. The only problem is the airline still needs more cost cuts, more revenue, and ATSB approval that now appears to be in jeopardy.

That's why USA Today reporter Marilyn Adams wrote today, "United Airlines, still in Chapter 11, also has reason for concern. The prospect of a US Airways loan default might discourage the ATSB from guaranteeing a loan for United, which seeks a loan twice the size of US Airways' loan. United also had counted on $200 million a year in revenue from its deal with US Airways to market flights on each other's planes."

Regardless, it now appears the business partners are headed for a merger if US Airways stabilizes its finances and United can emerge from its in-court restructuring.

Respectfully,

USA320Pilot