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Aug 21, 2002
[P]Well, AA was not alone today, as DL, NW, & CO all saw new lows today, and most airlines lost something today, including WN.[/P]
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AMR stock has taking a beating this week.Look at WED closing price and you will see that this company is in serious trouble and major investors have lost their confidence in AMR management to correct the problems.A major problem is excess capacity and the decrease in demand for seats is NOW,not in 2005 when the last Fokker is scheduled for retirement.We have too many different type of aircraft and different configurations within each fleet type.At a time when AA should have been shrinking the airline they bought another airline and increased the capacity.I wonder if AA management has the ability to recover the airline from this huge mistake.
[blockquote]Hilock says:
.Look at WED closing price and you will see that this company is in serious trouble and major investors have lost their confidence in AMR management to correct the problems

Only a totally isolated idiot without CNN and/or CSPAN could look at airline stocks this week and not know why it fell.

We have a frustrated President and two Gulf War I veterans (Cheney, Powell) in his inner circle who are using Sadaam in a classic wag the dog diversion away from the fact that Osama still hasn't been neutralized a year after the WTC attacks. Sadaam is indeed evil, and needs to be neutralized, but look at the timing. By waging a war that will be very popular with the home viewers, he's paving the way for re-election based on his (future) war record, lest people be left with looking at the economy instead...

Airline stocks have plummeted in response.
There might be more dark clouds on the horizon, BUT stock price does not really indicate anything. People are selling the airline stocks on the Iraq tension, but even if war breaks out, the impact to air travel will be less than it was in the 1991 war, simply because we are already in a very depressed travel environment and we already have far tighter security now than we did at any time during the Gulf War.

I'd say that the next real checkpoint for AA's health will be the Q3 (summer) financial results and management's spin on them. If the Q3 loss is about the same or worse than the Q2 loss, I expect there may be major shareholder unrest and pressure for more drastic action and/or management changes. On the other hand, if the Q3 loss is materially smaller than the Q2 loss was, then AMR will rally for a while.
It's somewhat laughable to single out AA, and bash the management for something that they have little control over, namely the price of oil. Investors are reacting to the future price of crude. AMR ( stock price $6.00 range ) being the Escalade SUV of the airline industry is being given a thumbs down for the 4 cylinder JetBlue
( stock price in the $ 40 range ) that's all.

Still, Americans will return in troves when they're left with little choices but American. Carty's got the hood open and ready to do a much needed tune-up. If we can keep our hard earned tax dollars out of the hands of United and the rest, ( once they fold ), AA's stock will be in the $20.00+range by the time Old St. Nick arrives.
[BR][FONT color=#993300][STRONG]G.O.I.A. you should go to work on wallstreet!
The oil prices dropped during the Gulf War after an initial spike.Removing Saddam from power will stabilize the oil prices not cause excessive increases in the price of oil.
Only half correct, the US must finally get the two cry babies, namely Isreal and Palestine to stop their murderous actions against each other before they take the entire world down the toilet. Then we can finally have the kind of stability that investors want to see, propping up AMR's stock prices and getting our lives back on track.
As far as AMRs' stock price goes when comparing it to the industry; look back on a 10 year big chart set for yearly intervals and marked on closing price. Set the reporting events for all.

You will see that unlike most other carriers(except LUV and UAL) AMR has split over the time frame 4.25:1

At todays close of around 6/share the split adjusted price is 26.

I'm a mechanic not a financial analyst but that sounds fairly competitive with the other Network carriers. Of course, LUV has outperformed on a split adjusted basis but AMR is still not doing too shabby.

As far as why the price is where it is; that seems to be linked to the question regarding the value of AMR stock derived from AE. During the first quarter of 2001, it was widely rumored that AE would be spun off and would bring around 15/AMR share. The tanking of the market since that time would leave me to believe that the current split adjusted price of about 26/share has that factored in. Absent AE and the synergies it creates with AA, 11/share on a split adjusted basis would still compare favorably with the other Network carriers.

The question remains as to the extent that AMR will be disadvaantaged by the Chpt. 11/ATSB applicants leveraging their cost structures down.
At the close of the NYSE, AMR was at 4.90.

That is still a split adjusted price of 20.83.

Removing the AE spinoff that comes to 5.83.

The problem with discerning these numbers is that the prospective value of an AE spinoff was predicated on the value at the time it was made. The 15/share was a scenario based on the value at the time, the split adjustment minus the AE spinoff could be higher or lower based on the market evaluation of AEs' value.

**all information based on public sources**
VanHalan2003, are you smoking dope with the brothers, you must think Sammy is going to come back to the band?

You are wrong. If GW takes this Country to War without International support, The US Airline market will TANK big time. UA,will go stright to Chap.11, my company CO will be right behind it, and places like AA,DL,NW, will shed thousads of employees overnight. Thats why airlines stocks are down, if you were right they'd all be up. Duh

GOIA. I agree with you totally. Thank you for using your head.
Shares of American Airlines drop to nearly 20-year low

The Associated Press
9/19/02 6:44 PM

NEW YORK (AP) -- American Airlines' stock price plummeted on Thursday, falling to levels not seen since 1983 as trading volume soared.

The entire airline sector has been under pressure lately, but shares of American have taken an especially big hit in the past two weeks. American's stock has lost half of its value since the beginning of the month.

On Thursday, shares of AMR Corp., the carrier's parent company, fell 92 cents, or 15.8 percent, to close at $4.90 on the New York Stock Exchange.

More than 10 million shares changed hands on Thursday, compared with average trading volume of about 1.7 million shares over the past 200 days.

Shares of American's two biggest competitors, United and Delta, also fell on Thursday, albeit less severely. United's stock dropped 2 cents to $2.51 on the NYSE, where Delta's stock declined 45 cents to $12.32. Delta is trading at levels not seen since 1982.

Industry analysts said it was unclear why shares of American were falling so sharply.

It's alarming, in general, the way the whole industry is trading, said Helane Becker, an analyst at Buckingham Research Group in New York.

Becker speculated that investors might be showing displeasure with recent announcements by American to begin shuttle service on the East Coast and to add some international routes. People would rather see cost cutting, Becker said.

American spokesman Todd Burke would not comment on why the stock price was falling, other than to say: This underscores the serious financial condition of the airline industry. We are confident that we have a viable recovery plan in place and are currently in the middle of implementing it.

Talk of war with Iraq has caused investors to worry about a dropoff in international travel. Another concern is that jet fuel costs will skyrocket in the months ahead as crude oil futures are priced above $29 a barrel.

Late last week, in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, the carrier forecast that jet fuel costs in January would be 16 percent higher than they were in August, when the carrier paid 77 cents per gallon.

Fuel price has trended up during the third quarter and remain(s) persistently high, the airline said in its SEC filing.
Please do not compare stock prices between companies (split-adjusted or not). The stock price is the market value divided by the number of shares. The number of shares is an arbitrary number, which makes the stock price arbitrary.

You could compare market value, but even then, it's not a perfect comparison, because larger companies will have a larger market value, all else being equal.
Industry analysts said it was unclear why shares of American were falling so sharply.

Why are all of these analysts so confused?? All they need to do is log on here and read the rantings of the brilliant economic minds of our times. Then they would realize it must be all the President's fault.
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