I agree, hp_fa, that it's probably No. 3.
Once your group gets a new contract (negotiations just began), all that leaves is the mechanics, right? Anyone know when that one becomes amendable?
Oh, and I'll add that, IMO, the odds of "unique corporate transaction" involving UAIR and AWA is less than zero (if that's possible!) because of the disparate cost structures. AWA's low costs is why it will have the highest earnings per share of any airline this year. UAIR's high costs is why its survival is in question. Yes, the route structures are a great match, but that's it.
If UAIR manages to transform itself as it apparently wants to, at that point some sort of code-share might be possible. But there's a big mountain to climb first.