Bankruptcy Still???

TWAnr

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On 4/26/2003 8:37:28 AM WXGuesser wrote:


If AA does file, it is unlikely they will come back after labor (IMHO). Especially with all the problems AA/Labor have had recently.

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You are totally ignoring recent history at US Airways and UAL. Besides, these concessions were designed to stem losses of $5 millions a day, not the $11 plus millions as day loss that was experienced in the first quarter.

There will be a trip to the bankruptcy court.

There will be additional concessions. Only the bar has been lowered.
 
OP
TWAnr

TWAnr

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From the Chautauqua (American Connection) company news update:

Company Update for April 25, 2003

Good afternoon. The situation at AMR has taken another unpredictable turn as the carriers CEO, Don Carty was forced to resign in the aftermath “bonus-gateâ€￾. As of now the pilots and fleet workers have reaccepted their concession packages but not the flight attendants. Once again the carriers CFO is in New York at the court house steps waiting for word to file C11.

In my opinion, regardless of whether the flight attendants re-approve their deal or not, I believe it would be in AMR’s best interests to file for court protection sooner rather than later. It appears that the current plan is simply designed to reduce their daily cash burn so that they can hold out until fall in hopes that United will liquidate. Certainly if United were to fail, then bankruptcy and further employee trauma could be avoided. But that is a very big gamble with the company’s dwindling cash reserves and, if wrong, will result in the need for even more dramatic concessions and furloughs than might otherwise be required should the company begin the reorganization process immediately. To be sure, bankruptcy is no panacea and should be avoided at all costs short of leaving the company is such a weak state that the risk of liquidation is greater than the likelihood of reorganization. A very difficult call to make and I am glad we are not in a position to have to worry about such things.

Regardless of which direction AMR follows, we must continue to stay focused on doing our jobs safely and reliably. Chautauqua has managed through many crisis’s in the past 18 months and we will mange through this uncertainty as well. We have a very good people, a very good product and very good economics which I hope will continue to make us an attractive partner to most large, net work carriers. I do not feel our AMR operation is in any significant danger, but rest assured we are monitoring the situation actively and will develop contingency plans as the situation unfolds and warrants.
 

WXGuesser

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If AA does file, it is unlikely they will come back after labor (IMHO). Especially with all the problems AA/Labor have had recently.

If they do file Ch. 11, watch for it to be a "pre-packaged" variety to just reduce lease costs, get rid of parked airplanes, etc...

TANSTAAFL
 

SalesGuyCCY

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Does any think AA still might file for Chapter 11 anyways. Look at what US Airways did: Got agreements from all of their unions then filed for Chapter 11. AA''s costs will come down a bit on the labor side but still not much leverage with lessors and other big vendors. Not to mention AA is about at the height of its cash position right now and that''s when companies typically file. I say Sunday night.....but who knows really! Comments?
 

L1011Ret

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Should AA file C-11 and come at the unions for further concessions, I would expect great outrage as these concessions were targeted at keeping AA out of bankruptcy.
 
Aug 20, 2002
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On 4/26/2003 8:25:54 AM SalesGuyCCY wrote:

Does any think AA still might file for Chapter 11 anyways. Look at what US Airways did: Got agreements from all of their unions then filed for Chapter 11. AA''s costs will come down a bit on the labor side but still not much leverage with lessors and other big vendors. Not to mention AA is about at the height of its cash position right now and that''s when companies typically file. I say Sunday night.....but who knows really! Comments?

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1043 million - 450 million = 593 million a quarter loss post concessions.

CNBC was reporting that the vendors and lessors were being cooperative and that deals would most likely come very quickly. That, coupled with the layoffs that are about to happen and the operational cost cuts that are slowly phasing in (F100 retirements, etc) MAY.....MAY.....mean they can avoid BK....if they really want to.
 

Winglet

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Unless you believe in the tooth fairy, of course they're going to file BK! Even with slashing the compensation of employees and boot a bunch into the street, the losses are going to continue and be HUGE for a long time. Reasons?

1. The economy is crap and is probably going to stay that way for at LEAST another year.

2. The ingrate Iraqis will break into petty inernecine in-fighting. Since they didn't have the guts to free themselves, they won't value freedom. The cost of the war and the enomous expendature in the aftermath will suck money out of American pockets. The Kurds will try to form a separate state and Turkey will cross the border, creating even more chaos. The Shia's, controlled and incited by theocratic despots will try and form a separate state and control the southern oil fields and ports.

3. This will all become very apparent early next year. It will also become apparent that Bush will likely lose in 2004 due to complete mismanagement of the economy and his money pit in Iraq, thus creating more economic uncertainty.

4. Democrats will propose universal health care and other huge and costly programs.

5. G. Arpey and Brennan haven't a clue on a viable business plan for AA other than UAL liquidating.

Results?

1. More furloughs

2. Pilot's retirement plans gutted. B-Fund gone. A-Fund a shadow of itself.

3. More wage concessions.

4. All F-100s gone. TWA B757s gone. A300s gone. AA767-200s gone. Lots of older MD-80s gone.

5. And STILL no viable business plan.
 

medr

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Apr 15, 2003
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On 4/26/2003 10:35:49 AM L1011Ret wrote:

Should AA file C-11 and come at the unions for further concessions, I would expect great outrage as these concessions were targeted at keeping AA out of bankruptcy.

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Outrage? What outrage? I''ve seen no sign that outrage is likely under any circumstance. Those furloughed will be too busy scrambling for new income to be outraged by further concessions. And those not furloughed will probably just feel comfortably coccooned in their job, greatly relieved that the layoffs happened to SOMEONE ELSE. Employee outrage? Never happen.