City of Dallas still in talks with Delta about Love Field

[WorldTraveler]

you can argue the point and hold onto the coattails of others if you want but DOT data shows that AA carried 18,050 LOCAL DFW domestic passengers per day in the year that ended Sept 2014, the latest period for which DOT O&D revenue statistics are available.

For the current month (April 2015), WN offers on average 22,048 seats/day from DAL.

WN does have the capacity TODAY to carry the total of what AA carries in DFW local domestic passengers from DFW.

given that WN doesn't fly to every market from DAL that AA serves from DFW and WN will never have 100% of the market that AA has from DFW, it is absolutely accurate to say that WN could easily carry the half of the combined total local DAL/DFW market to the cities that WN serves from DAL.

given that WN already does that in total to the markets the two overlapped in before the Wright restrictions fell, it is a whole lot more realistic to believe it will happen to LGA, DCA, MCO, LAX etc than you and alot of people want to admit.

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

given that WN doesn't fly to every market from DAL that AA serves from DFW and WN will never have 100% of the market that AA has from DFW, it is absolutely accurate to say that WN could easily carry the half of the combined total local DAL/DFW market to the cities that WN serves from DAL.

given that WN already does that in total to the markets the two overlapped in before the Wright restrictions fell, it is a whole lot more realistic to believe it will happen to LGA, DCA, MCO, LAX etc than you and alot of people want to admit.

It is absolutely not accurate to say that WN could easily carry half of the combined total local DAL/DFW market to the cities WN serves from DAL. It is only your opinion.

 

[WorldTraveler]

no, it is factual.

you just simply do not want to believe that the size of the local DFW market is a fraction of the number of seats that AA actually flies to/from there. The rest is connections.

WN is not focused on connecting traffic at DAL; they are focused on the local market and they absolutely do have enough seats to carry every single LOCAL DFW passenger in every market that WN flies from DAL.

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

You do have a great ability (and enough free time) to pull out numbers.  Drawing conclusions from those numbers is another matter.
 
Just from your calculation hat WN could potentially offer up to ~20K seats at DAL and from your statement that AA carries ~18K domestic pax at DFW, you go then make the statement that:
 
i)  WN is going to be able to carry 50% of the combined DFW+DAL market, and
ii)  WN has enough seats to carry every single local DFW pax in every market that flies from DAL
 
Quite astonishing.
 
And ofcourse in your typical fashion, over the course of a few posts managed to move the goalposts too.

 

[WorldTraveler]

I have said these things years ago when some people like E were arguing that the fall of the Wright Amendment would have no impact on AA at DFW.

AA execs have specifically said they underestimated the impact of WN's growth at DAL on AA.

I suspect when numbers become apparent that there will be a lot of markets just like STL and MCI where WN very quickly gained 50% of the combined DAL/DFW market, did it at low fares, and then increased the fares back but after it had 50% market share - but AA's revenue was still lower than what it was before WN entered the market.

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

I hate to beat a dead horse, but I have to go back to the numbers you provided
~22K seats/day for WN at DAL and ~18K local domestic pax/day for AA at DFW
 
Let me start of by first saying that I don't know where you got your numbers.
 
According to the DAL www site:
WN carried ~748K passengers in 07/2014 at DAL or bit over 24K/day
WN carried ~890K passengers in 11/2014 at DAL or almost 30K/day
WN carried ~832K passengers in 02/2015 at DAL or bit over 29K/day
 
So let me ask you:  given the numbers above are you still sure that WN has the capacity to do what you stated?  Or do you want to refine your hypothesis?
 
According to the DFW www site:
AA carried ~4339K passengers in 07/2014 at DFW almost 140K/day
AA carried ~3240K passengers in 11/2014 at DFW approx. 108K/day
AA carried ~3662K passengers in 02/2015 at DFW a bit over 130K/day
 
If one assumes your 18K local pax/day at DFW are correct, that means that almost 90% of AA traffic at DFW is connecting?  Are you sure about that?  Or do you want to refine your hypothesis?
 
 
Spin away!

 

[WorldTraveler]

the only spin is that you STILL don't understand the difference between local DFW Ô&D passengers and passenger boardings.

EVERY passenger that boards at DFW or any other airport IS NOT a local DFW O&D passenger.

the vast majority of AA's passengers ARE NOT DFW local passengers but merely connections.

You also clearly don't know the difference between domestic and int'l passengers. WN is prohibited from flying from DAL to destinations outside of the US so the comparison at DFW is only for LOCAL domestic passengers. I've only written "local DFW domestic passengers" about a half dozen times.

when you figure that concept out, you will realize that WN absolutely DOES have the capacity to carry the entire DFW local domestic market that AA carries out of DAL on WN jets from DAL.

 

[robbedagain]

on the other hand you have no flipping idea who is O&D at either DFW and DAL.   I cant even count the countless bags that are strictly for DFW alone on the DFW MD80s    

 

[WorldTraveler]

There absolutely is data that shows the amount of O&D traffic and the fares they pay for every US airline route and every US airline.

The DOT releases it quarterly and the next release will be in a couple weeks.

The DOT does not track the number of checked bags per customer or airline but does track baggage fees and the number of lost baggage claims.

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

I suspected you would avoid my questions and spin / deflect / change the subject.
 
First, how is it possible that WN already carries more people at DAL than what you have calculated that they can?  How is it that WN carries almost 30k people per day at DAL whereas you have calculated they offer just 22K seats per day?  That's post #271 http://www.airlineforums.com/topic/58065-city-of-dallas-still-in-talks-with-delta-about-love-field/?p=1162982
(I realize you type so much BS daily that you forget what you wrote).
 
So go ahead and explain, Einstein.
Or should I say spin away!
 
Secondly, you have not answered my simple question as to where you got the 18K domestic passengers per day for AA at DFW.
Thank you for the patronizing BS, but I do understand the difference between total and local passengers.  (Incase you forgot where you fabricated this number [I say fabricated until you provide the source], it was here:  http://www.airlineforums.com/topic/58065-city-of-dallas-still-in-talks-with-delta-about-love-field/?p=1162982
As expected you again missed my point here.
If we use your fabricated number of 18K locals for AA daily, it still works out to that roughly 85%-90% of AA traffic at DFW is connecting.  Are you willing to back up that figure?  Or do you want to revise your hypothesis?
 
So just to recap, first you made up the fairy tale that WN has the ability to offer enough seats at DAL to take away every single local DFW domestic passenger from AA.  Then you modified it to state that WN could get 50% of the local DFW/DAL market to the cities they serve. 
I wonder what happened for you to alter your hypothesis? 
Perhaps you realized you made up BS numbers and tried to recover quickly enough hoping you would not get caught?
Is that the Whole Truth?
 
For somebody who claims to have a huge grasp of the issues even after being away from the industry for more-or-less a decade now, you sure make it difficult to have an intelligent business discussion.

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

on the other hand you have no flipping idea who is O&D at either DFW and DAL.   I cant even count the countless bags that are strictly for DFW alone on the DFW MD80s    

 
Ofcourse he doesn't have a flipping idea.
As has been shown on numerous occasions, he's prone to being fast and loose with numbers.
Other posters have pointed this out to him, and even urged him to provide a source or link. 
When he can't he resorts to patronizing / name calling / belittling and best of all changing the subjects or setting up straw man arguments. 
I'm willing to apologize if he can explain my simple few questions, but I'm not gonna hold my breath (or even bother waiting since I have a life, job, friends, hobbies, responsibilities that are a bit more valuable than sitting at the computer writing narratives about how a certain airline is going to take over the world).

 

[robbedagain]

Great posts Frugal. In june we will have 3 B737-800 plus 1 MD80 given that itll make things so much easier for us rampies loading n unloading vs the MD80

 

[WorldTraveler]

read here...

http://www.transtats.bts.gov/DatabaseInfo.asp?DB_ID=125&DB_Name=Airline%20Origin%20and%20Destination%20Survey%20(DB1B)



The DOT doesn't track or care about how many bags are checked per passenger.


regardless of what AA offers in terms of total capacity between city pairs, AA's top domestic destination from DFW is ORD with about 975 LOCAL passengers per day. the rest are all connections.

The next highest market is LAX with about 725 passengers per day followed by LGA with about 675 passengers per day.

there are less than 20 cities that AA serves that have more than 500 LOCAL passengers per day.

500 passengers can easily fit on 4 WN 737 flights; 738s have even more seats left over.

WN absolutely does have the seats from DAL to carry all of the LOCAL domestic traffic that AA carries from DFW even though WN does not fly to every market, including ORD.

WN doesn't need any more capacity at DAL in order to be able to compete with AA at DFW, DOT data will show that WN is doing very well and doesn't need any protection from anyone at DAL, and it does have enough capacity to do serious damage to take a significant portion of the market that AA has carried from DFW for years.

The sole reason why WN and its employees here want the case settled as quickly as possible to kick DL out is so that they can gain as many gates as possible before data shows that they don't need it in order to achieve their objections and in the process shut out all competitors.

 

[swamt]

 
Ofcourse he doesn't have a flipping idea.
As has been shown on numerous occasions, he's prone to being fast and loose with numbers.
Other posters have pointed this out to him, and even urged him to provide a source or link. 
When he can't he resorts to patronizing / name calling / belittling and best of all changing the subjects or setting up straw man arguments. 
I'm willing to apologize if he can explain my simple few questions, but I'm not gonna hold my breath (or even bother waiting since I have a life, job, friends, hobbies, responsibilities that are a bit more valuable than sitting at the computer writing narratives about how a certain airline is going to take over the world).

Typical WT stuff.  In one of his postings (#275) he claims that E said the fall of the W/A would have no effect on AA.  He's lying again.  I believe E's points were as I have believed that AA wouldn't be hurt very much as some were indicating in the forums.  Yes SWA would increase traffic and load factors, and yes even take some passengers from DFW to DAL, but we also said it would not put AA out of business.  But to say that E said AA would have no affect from the fall of the W/A is a complete lie. And as usual he has changed the subject of this thread as he always does when he has been caught. Very typical WT move...

 

[WorldTraveler]

E and others REPEATEDLY said that the fall of the WA restrictions would have no effect on AA; those posts are on this forum. Whether you have read them or not doesn't mean it wasn't said.

For you to call someone else a liar because you can't be bothered to read what has been posted on this forum makes you the liar AND a hypocrite.



No one has ever said that opening DAL to longhaul passengers would put AA out of business. NEVER.

WN has more than enough seats at DAL to carry as much of the LOCAL DAL/DFW domestic market as it wants to carry and WN's growth absolutely has and will impact AA.

Of course you and WN want to pretend that WN is just expanding the market but the truth is very clear that WN is taking passengers from AA and forcing down yields.

and on that basis, it is clear that WN needs no protection and the notion that WN should be protected from antitrust laws is a complete farce.

The DOT will release statistics in a few weeks that will show how much AA has lost at DFW and how much WN has gained.

you can bet that WN will try to downplay the impact of those results but it is clear that WN has used the end of the WA to shift more of the DFW/DAL market to WN's control than has ever happened in such a short time to one airline in one city.