Consolidation Talk Of Airline Symposium

[USA320Pilot]

Consolidation talk of airline symposium

(Dave) Siegel said he sees a new Big Six in the industry: three so-called legacy carriers and three large low-cost carriers. He said consolidation is inevitable. What form it takes is another question. Given the bad track record of previous airline mergers, and many mergers in general, Siegel said he believes airlines will take a different approach, possibly starting with an America West-US Airways deal.

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USA320Pilot asks: If Siegel is correct, and US Airways- America West survive and become the largest LCC, followed by Southwest and then either AirTran or JetBlue, who will be the 3 surviving network carriers? My belief is American, Northwest & Continental who could merge, and ?????

Regards,

USA320Pilot

 

[USA320Pilot]

Nation's airlines face uncharted course - Consolidation wave to spur big changes, aviation leaders say

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Regards,

USA320Pilot

 

[USA320Pilot]

"The innovations we're going to see over the next 18 to 24 months actually will come through airline consolidation," David Siegel, former chief executive of US Airways and now head of airline caterer Gate Gourmet, said during a panel discussion in front of more than 150 aviation and government officials at the Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airports Aviation Symposium 2005. "The uneconomic hubs that exist at most (larger airlines) will either get eliminated or fundamentally restructured because they don't make sense."

Regards,

USA320pilot

 

[RowUnderDCA]

Consolidation talk of airline symposium

(Dave) Siegel said he sees a new Big Six in the industry: three so-called legacy carriers and three large low-cost carriers. He said consolidation is inevitable. What form it takes is another question. Given the bad track record of previous airline mergers, and many mergers in general, Siegel said he believes airlines will take a different approach, possibly starting with an America West-US Airways deal.

See Story

USA320Pilot asks: If Siegel is correct, and US Airways- America West survive and become the largest LCC, followed by Southwest and then either AirTran or JetBlue, who will be the 3 surviving network carriers? My belief is American, Northwest & Continental who could merge, and ?????

Regards,

USA320Pilot

[post="265308"][/post]​

Well, if U/HP/UA dont become the Star legacy, then I'd say:

American/Alaska- oneworld
United/Continental- star
Delta/Northwest- Skyteam

U/HP as a lcc trying to be more.... looking into hooking up with Branson or someother international network.

 

[luvn737s]

A U/HP airline could be a powerhouse with U's RASM and HP's CASM, but the airline, if successful wouldn't resemble U very much at all.

I would think using a seniority-only mentality it would be very difficult to build a totally new airline with folks clinging to yesterday. Minimizing suffering may prolong the illness to the point where recovery is impossible. I don't know how something good can arise from something so painful, but that solution must be found if any consolidation is to be successful.

The alternative is the death of the weakest airlines in the industry to be replaced by start-ups with a homogenous employee group. At year - one pay.

 

[whlinder]

USA320Pilot asks: If Siegel is correct, and US Airways- America West survive and become the largest LCC, followed by Southwest and then either AirTran or JetBlue, who will be the 3 surviving network carriers? My belief is American, Northwest & Continental who could merge, and ?????

[post="265308"][/post]​

US Airways and America West surviving? Well first they have to merge or partner or ICT UCT IUD whatever, then they have to survive, then they actually have to become a LCC (HP by itself is close to one, but not even in the ballpark if you add in US). By the time all that happens, WN, FL and B6 might all be bigger than the 'combined entity' anyway.

But I don't share Seigel's view. There will be some consolidation, but it won't be that widespread. I see AA/AS growing closer, NW/DL together and UA with either HP/US or with CO. If CO is not with UA, they will be part of NW/DL. IMHO

 

[sfb]

I don't see CAL hooking up with UAL unless (1) Continental is the acquirer or (2) NWAC gets a significant pay-off in small, unmarked bills (well, maybe not the "small, unmarked bills" part). NWAC holds a single share of preferred stock in CAL which permits them to block certain change-of-control transactions including the purchase of Continental by another carrier.

Given the fleet issues, a Continental-Delta merger is a far better fit; CLE would be de-emphasized, most international routes would move from JFK to EWR, and it's possible that the two might have to shed some slots at LGA. Delta-Northwest would be a horrible hodge-podge fleet and at least two hubs (MEM and CVG) would probably be on the chopping block.