I do agree that it is a great unknown. APA is not going to go along with DOH, and USAPA is obligated by its own C&B-Ls to stick to that (as you point out.) So, it is doubtful that there will be a negotiated list. USAPA can go to the McC-B board with DOH, and then sit down and keep their mouths shut (because there is not much else they can say and remain within their own rules.) The arbitrators will say DOH is a non-starter (as did Nicolau) and will proceed with slotting. We can only hope it is better than Nic (very likely, IMHO) and the C&Rs are manageable, fair and lengthy (unlikely.) It is unlikely that the arbitration panel will recognize the current separation of the US east and west, and they will probably have no restrictions in place for us East vs. west, i.e. all bases and equipment on the US east and west will open up for bidding by all former east and west pilots. The panel will likely place restrictions at the company behest to wait until 2014 and the PBS system is in place, but the fences (if any) will only keep the AA pilots from the US pilots, and vice versa.
1. Pilot data will be exchanged between the two unions. I say data because calling it a list is irrelevant. The order in which the pilots are shown on the list won't matter in the exchange. Each party is free to reorder each other's list as they deem appropriate.
2. Once USAPA has the APA's list, it will take those pilots and integrate them into our list per our C&BL's. This is the list that counts.
3. APA will take our data and integrate it with their list. They most definitely will not use DOH and will instead slot our pilots with their pilots. IMHO, the APA, in order to avoid potential litigation from the west, will integrate their list with our pilots ordered per the Nicolau list.
4. Each side will then exchange their "offers" of integration which won't even be close. I don't see even a small chance of negotiations between the respective parties and this will immediately move to the arbitrators.
5. Each side will argue the merits of their logic for ordering their respective lists to the arbitrators.
6. Arbitrators pick a list or formulate a new one based on the arguments they heard.
Looking at our side, we've argued DOH once before and you can see how that turned out. DOH, as a method, is dead and we won't get anything anywhere near it.
The APA, on the other hand, will proffer a list that uses a prevailing method of integration, doesn't risk any litigation from the west, and avoids the inevitable injunction that would happen if AoL intervened.
And, finally, the arbitrators don't set a precedence of undercutting another arbitrators work.
For our pilots to think that the Nicolau award is dead simply because we won't use it is naive. The APA can use it and I think they will because of the litigation. Their suit lost on ripeness, not merit, and they've proven they have a case. And USAPA escapes any DFR suits because it still complied with DOH when they submitted our list to the APA.
If you think the Nicolau is dead then you're in for a shock. Its going to show its head.