Flight Attendant

[swamt]

Thanks




Not sure I follow you. WN has focused much more on DEN than SLC. I have no doubt they will be successful in ATL, but there will be losers. I would be very surprised if the Flints, and Akrons, and Bransons, and Huntsvilles keep WN service from ATL once all is integrated (I hope I'm wrong-my parents fly FL all the time ex Flint). Once the dust settles, I think WN will serve the top 25 markets out of ATL, plus all of their hubs/focus cities (or whatever they're calling them nowadays): MCO,BWI,MDW,BNA,STL,HOU,DEN,PHX, etc. I think 150-180 flights per day is probably the max. DL/DL Conn. has 1,000+ flights per day from ATL. They will probably be OK.

I don't want to be too out of line here, but, we have heard as many as 250 flights out of ALT once we max out there. Will we ever hit that? Only time will tell.

 

[buscador]

I don't want to be too out of line here, but, we have heard as many as 250 flights out of ALT once we max out there. Will we ever hit that? Only time will tell.

I would have to defer that to WT,, he has all those projections,, I think WT may have a cup full of the original ATL groundbreaking soil filling his DL cup,, lol

 

[WorldTraveler]

I don't want to be too out of line here, but, we have heard as many as 250 flights out of ALT once we max out there. Will we ever hit that? Only time will tell.

In an industry that has enormous strategic changes happening all the time, it would be very hard to predict with any accuracy what will happen more than a few years from now.
.
The combined FL/WN schedule at ATL for 2012 includes less than 200 flights/day.
.
WN has a huge strategic opportunity to grow their hometown airport in 2013 with the lifting of the Wright Amendment - and I can assure you that WN wil take full advantage of the opportunity.
Aside from DAL and the WA, WN should have the infrastructure to expand into the Caribbean and Latin America, markets where WN should have no problem succeeding in and where I fully expect to see them grow... and they will likely add Hawaii flying because flying there is strategically necessary as part of nationwide airline loyalty programs.
.
Combined with fuel prices that will only increase if/when the US economy starts to improve, it is likely that there will be much growth anywhere on WN's system including ATL apart from the strategic opportunities I have mentioned above.

 

[NYCDelta]

NYC Delta with a United avatar

That's because when I joined this board, I was a NYC-based F/A at Delta. Then I went to UA here in Chicago, and took a voluntary furlough in 2008.

I don't want to be too out of line here, but, we have heard as many as 250 flights out of ALT once we max out there. Will we ever hit that? Only time will tell.

You're not out of line at all. Could be, I'm not privy to inside information. If it was 10 years ago, I would absolutely believe it. Now, I'm basing my estimates on the following:
1) WN current costs vs. DL post BK costs
2) Limited room to grow in ATL and not ideally suited for 20 minute turns.
3) Highly skeptical WN will keep service to all those small stations that I mentioned. If you take those out, and WN focuses on the top 25 O&D markets, plus their focus cities-it's about 150-180 flights per day.
4) IF ATL grows to 250 flights per day, I would think that diminishes the need for such large ops at MCO/BNA/STL/BWI, all of which have between 60-189 daily flights (as of 12/9/11).

But, as someone else said, we'll have to wait and see.

 

[AdAstraPerAspera]

Ok, now this is well explained and level headed... I thank you for your information and unlike adasspera,, you dont go off on a psycho babble rant,, you are direct, factual and informational.,,,, good Job

silly me... I thought that was obvious... I didnt know I was talking to someone who needed everything spelled out and explained

 

[AdAstraPerAspera]

You're not out of line at all. Could be, I'm not privy to inside information. If it was 10 years ago, I would absolutely believe it. Now, I'm basing my estimates on the following:
1) WN current costs vs. DL post BK costs
2) Limited room to grow in ATL and not ideally suited for 20 minute turns.
3) Highly skeptical WN will keep service to all those small stations that I mentioned. If you take those out, and WN focuses on the top 25 O&D markets, plus their focus cities-it's about 150-180 flights per day.
4) IF ATL grows to 250 flights per day, I would think that diminishes the need for such large ops at MCO/BNA/STL/BWI, all of which have between 60-189 daily flights (as of 12/9/11).

But, as someone else said, we'll have to wait and see.

If WN even pulls a 35minute turn out of ATL I'd be surprised!

Delta has got to be licking their chops right now, thinking about how many business travelers they are gonna gain in ATL once WN gets rid of Business Class (with status upgrades), gogo wifi, and Sirius XM satellite radio. Southwest's loss is DL's gain.

 

[swamt]

In an industry that has enormous strategic changes happening all the time, it would be very hard to predict with any accuracy what will happen more than a few years from now.
.
The combined FL/WN schedule at ATL for 2012 includes less than 200 flights/day.
.
WN has a huge strategic opportunity to grow their hometown airport in 2013 with the lifting of the Wright Amendment - and I can assure you that WN wil take full advantage of the opportunity.
Aside from DAL and the WA, WN should have the infrastructure to expand into the Caribbean and Latin America, markets where WN should have no problem succeeding in and where I fully expect to see them grow... and they will likely add Hawaii flying because flying there is strategically necessary as part of nationwide airline loyalty programs.
.
Combined with fuel prices that will only increase if/when the US economy starts to improve, it is likely that there will be much growth anywhere on WN's system including ATL apart from the strategic opportunities I have mentioned above.

WT, The W/A does not go away until late (Oct I believe) 2014, so the growth of Dallas will not happen in 2013. However, Dallas will in fact grow largely after the W/A goes away. So will ATL, and SWA will grow ATL very fast. Denver will also be a very KEY city that will continue to grow very fast. ATL will more than likely become the largest city SWA operates out of. This statement has come from GK himself.

 

[swamt]

If WN even pulls a 35minute turn out of ATL I'd be surprised!

Delta has got to be licking their chops right now, thinking about how many business travelers they are gonna gain in ATL once WN gets rid of Business Class (with status upgrades), gogo wifi, and Sirius XM satellite radio. Southwest's loss is DL's gain.

Good luck with those thoughts. You obviously haven't witnessed how SWA grows in certain cities. Turn times can be adjusted as required to better fit the busier airports. Just look at Denver since we started there. At the busier airports it may take a little longer, but you watch, it will happen.

 

[AdAstraPerAspera]

Good luck with those thoughts. You obviously haven't witnessed how SWA grows in certain cities. Turn times can be adjusted as required to better fit the busier airports. Just look at Denver since we started there. At the busier airports it may take a little longer, but you watch, it will happen.

Denver is the biggest money loser in WNs network. There is absolutely no yield there. Brilliant move! Congratulations on your huge success in DEN!

 

[WorldTraveler]

WT, The W/A does not go away until late (Oct I believe) 2014, so the growth of Dallas will not happen in 2013. However, Dallas will in fact grow largely after the W/A goes away. So will ATL, and SWA will grow ATL very fast. Denver will also be a very KEY city that will continue to grow very fast. ATL will more than likely become the largest city SWA operates out of. This statement has come from GK himself.

thanks for clarifying the date of the end of the WA but still WN has alot to do in a very short period of time considering they have already said that 2012 will be a no growth year that is needed to integrate the FL system (from a network perspective) and get finances back in order (which I am certain they will do). DEN is a financial disaster for all including WN and the drag that DEN puts on WN's finances is enormous... although as F9 continues to shrink, WN is the one that is licking its chops waiting to expand when there it makes sense to do so.... given that UA has also pulled back on DEN, WN will take DEN w/o blinking and DEN is strategically far more important as a large operation than ATL which is sandwiched between BNA, BWI, and a number of Florida operations... WN can still have a very large LOCAL presence in ATL with 150-180 flights/day - and given how much connecting traffic FL has carried, that size of operation still could make WN a larger local carrier than FL was - w/ higher fares too.
.
And yes, WN will lose some business traffic in ATL as they pull down the amenities... but also note that WN has established a very slow conversion period from FL to WN.

 

[swamt]

Denver is the biggest money loser in WNs network. There is absolutely no yield there. Brilliant move! Congratulations on your huge success in DEN!

Once again you are wrong. DEN is in fact very succesfull. Won't be long and we will have maint. there as well.

 

[NYCDelta]

WT, The W/A does not go away until late (Oct I believe) 2014, so the growth of Dallas will not happen in 2013. However, Dallas will in fact grow largely after the W/A goes away. So will ATL, and SWA will grow ATL very fast. Denver will also be a very KEY city that will continue to grow very fast. ATL will more than likely become the largest city SWA operates out of. This statement has come from GK himself.

While I certainly respect Mr. Kelly, anything a CEO says when a merger is announced needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Kelly also said one year later that WN would "wind down" the AT ATL hub.

A good analysis can be found here:
http://aviationplanning.com/Boyd%20Group%20WN%20FL%20Merger%20Review.pdf

Some of the highlights:

Southwest will, as it has indicated, pull down the FL hubbing operations. Connectivity between WN flights will be predominantly random.

•There is no factor in this analysis that addresses the possible consumer reactions to the very different service product of Southwest v AirTran. The elimination of seat selection, XM-Radio, and a business cabin offering could have effects on consumer decisions going forward.

•There will not be any material fare stimulation with the entry of Southwest at ATL. AirTran has already done so in 24 of the top 25 ATL O&D markets. The potential for new nonstops to other markets with the entry of WN is certainly there, but it is limited by the lack of connecting traffic support.

•No review has been made of the potential of an aggressive marketing counter-strike by Delta. The new Delta has considerable management DNA from Continental and Northwest, and it is possible that the airline may see the change in product offered by Southwest an opportunity to gain market share at ATL.
Southwest, however, has made clear that it intends to “wind down” the FL connecting operations. Without question, this means that when the dust settles from the merger, the WN operation will represent fewer passengers than the current AirTran schedule.

•Southwest has already indicated a reduction in total daily flight operations compared to AirTran levels at ATL. This signals that WN will fundamentally restructure – and in some cases, drop – a portion of the route/revenue generation that AirTran now operates
As a practical matter, however, there will be some connectivity with any WN/ATL schedule, but at best (most) it would represent support for capacity in the range of 170 – 180 daily flights – equating to perhaps as few as 90 daily ATL departures

•Atlanta is not new territory for low fare stimulation. The “Southwest effect” – market stimulation with low fares – has largely already been registered at ATL by lower-cost AirTran. Twenty-four of the top 25 O&D markets are already “stimulated” by AirTran. The remainder have only limited potential for nonstop service that is not already operated by AirTran.

Southwest inherits a route system from AirTran, parts of which it simply cannot operate as cost-efficiently as did AirTran, which could outsource ground handling. Southwest cannot, and its union agreements do not allow other operational and cost flexibilities enjoyed by AirTran.

•Funnel-Route Strategy. ATL does represent strong new system revenues. Southwest can aggressively “funnel” connecting flows over MDW, BNA, DEN, SLC, MCI, to generate maximum ATL O&D revenues across its system.

•The hard conclusion: The Southwest-AirTran merger will result in lower enplanement levels at ATL, and will end low-fare flights at several communities where AirTran’s costs allowed viable service, but where the costs and operational systems at WN cannot.

 

[AdAstraPerAspera]

Once again you are wrong. DEN is in fact very succesfull. Won't be long and we will have maint. there as well.

Try again. From PlaneBuzz: http://www.planebuzz.com/2009/08/potential_southwest_airlinesfr.html

...However, there is one big falsehood that I want to dispel that a number of you have written to me about, and which, for whatever reason, seems to have been picked up by an analyst at Gimme Credit.

The questions concern a quote that was used in a Ft. Worth Star-Telegram story concerning the move.

In this story that ran Thursday, reporter Andrea Ahles quotes "Wall Street" Gimme Credit analyst Craig Hutson as saying, "Southwest entered Denver again in January 2006, and it has been among its most successful markets."

I do not believe this is the case. Far from it. Frontier Airlines has given Southwest fits. I think it's clear that Southwest thought they were going to go into Denver and kill Frontier. Didn't happen.

I'm not sure who this guy is, or what his background is, but according to the Wall Street analyst who I think knows Southwest Airlines' the best from stem to stern -- this is not the case. That analyst is Gary Chase with Barclays Capital, formerly Lehman Brothers.

There is no question that if you listen to the airline talk about Denver on its earnings calls, you would get the impression that everything is just rosy-posey in the Mile High city.

But as Gary Chase reaffirmed in his research note on the proposed deal Friday,

Our analysis suggests that Southwest is losing a significant amount of money in Denver while [Frontier's DEN operation] has been profitable year to date. Frontier has made substantial cost progress during its bankruptcy proceedings and currently enjoys a significant revenue advantage to Southwest in Denver markets. That combination defines the contrast between what we believe is money making at Frontier and a loss position for Southwest.

And no, this is not the first time Gary has written similar comments. He has tracked their presence in Denver for many years. And other markets as well.

Helluva business strategy Gary Kelly has there! Make your least profitable city your fastest growing one, and keep adding more and more flights-- what could possibly go wrong?

 

[num1bearsfan]

Try again. From PlaneBuzz: http://www.planebuzz.com/2009/08/potential_southwest_airlinesfr.html



Helluva business strategy Gary Kelly has there! Make your least profitable city your fastest growing one, and keep adding more and more flights-- what could possibly go wrong?

I don't know what metrics these "experts" use to measure the success of DEN as a Southwest city, but I see first hand every single day how critical of a city that DEN is to Southwest's operation system wide. It has essentially become the conduit by which all traffic to the west coast flows.. If you're gauging strictly O&D numbers, perhaps it's a break even or even losing proposition but DEN has become an invaluable dot on Southwest's route map. Do you seriously believe the powers that be at the helm at Southwest are just SO clueless? Maybe it's these outsider "experts" who are the ones lacking knowledge of the grander scheme of things?.. I think the latter scenario is easier to believe. So why would you actually try harder to believe a less likely scenario.. Possibly because a bias is at play..

 

[BoeingBoy]

I'm not sure Holly's view from over two years ago is really relevant today...

Jim