WorldTraveler
Corn Field
- Joined
- Dec 5, 2003
- Messages
- 21,709
- Reaction score
- 10,662
No, no, no, Commavia, you can’t possibly say that BK is just another business strategy because if it is then it isn’t an immoral option which is what you have been listening to from the fAAn club for the last how many years… all parroted from the same AMR execs who have been collecting stock options for all of their “good deeds” while AA has been systematically been brought to the breaking point.
Either BK is a valid business strategy – and is not immoral – or it is immoral and it will continue to be immoral when AA ultimately has to do the same thing that other airlines have done.
You and your fab three or four defenders of mgmt might want to confer and get the story straight…. We’ll give you a hint though that BK is in the US legal code… so not quite sure how you or anyone can argue that BK is immoral if it is part of the legal code.
Or perhaps you can come up with an answer for whatever other parts of the US legal code are in fact immoral.
And I am sure that we would want to defend pay cuts as being the “morally right” thing to do, would we?
I see you want to continue with the same line of thinking that the rest of the fAAn club uses – that other airline employees have suffered far more so AA employees should be thankful that they have not endured the same fate?
Do you three or four have a morning conference call to try and get your talking points all lined up?
BTW, the other companies may be FORMERLY FAILING but AMR is CURRENTLY FAILING. As FWAAA notes, AA’s equity is priced at BK levels and the expectation on Wall Street (which is more than a little confused what to do overall), is more than clear that AMR is not worth as much as airlines a whole lot smaller and with far fewer assets.
As such, continuing to compare what AA employees have today is rather pointless until AA reaches the same level of sustainability as its peers. At that point how about you trot out your pom poms and tell AA employees how well they have fared?
You are right that part of the reason that other airlines have been able to grow their revenue is because they have the right tools including aircraft to go after new revenue streams for them - which has often meant tapping into AA’s revenue.
I doubt very seriously that AA will choose to or succeed in placing a 90-100 seater at AA, partly because the economics still are not favorable for a plane of that size using mainline costs. Even B6 w/ its lack of legacy costs is moving away from the 100 seater to more and more larger 150 and larger jets. Higher fuel prices make it even harder for smaller aircraft to be cost efficient at mainline.
Further, AA still faces structural issues as a result of being a smaller airline trying to compete against DL and UA which are much larger; you have certainly noticed that DL is reducing 50 seat capacity and consolidating connecting traffic into more and more mainline flights because that is the most cost-effective way to carry passengers. The 50 seat and other RJs are a poor substitute for mainline jets on the domestic network but the costs will quickly prove unworkable when AA is forced to use less efficient jets against standard size 150-160 seat mainline jets that form the backbone of the domestic fleet… remember that DL and WN as the two largest domestic carriers are very close to carrying 50% of the US domestic market and because of their size the two of them drive how the rest of the industry can successfully compete in the US domestic market.
FWAAA is correct that it does make sense for AMR to have placed orders for aircraft prior to going into BK – but it is fairly common knowledge that A and B both received concessions in the contracts that AMR can’t reject those aircraft which were ordered in BK and those aircraft must remain parts of the AA fleet post-BK. The fact that no other manufacturer won a share of AA’s order says the chances are very small that AA will introduce another aircraft type at least until a few years after BK – and they still will be putting huge numbers of new aircraft into service in the near future.
So, it is highly unlikely that AA will get a 90 or 100 seat aircraft in their fleet which means the ability of competitors to erode AA’s markets will likely continue.
What AA could benefit from is the ability to deploy the 76 seat versions of the 170 and CR9 which have become standard in the US industry and which APA will have a harder time convincing a judge that AA should not be allowed to do. Given those types of aircraft are in high demand, I doubt that AA will succeed in putting significant numbers of those aircraft in service for quite some time… meaning again that AA’s revenue will continue to be under assault from airlines that do have the right tools right now.
But I do appreciate you acknowledging that AA does have a revenue production product which is what I have been saying for quite some time…. I was just at ORD and was amazed at the number of passengers DL was boarding on both its LGA and JFK service – all on large RJs. As we know from DOT data, DL IS carrying average fares comparable to AA and UA – so you are absolutely right that the right tools go a long way to helping generate revenue, esp. in highly competitive markets.
For those who are tired of hearing this talk of BK, the only reason it persists is because AMR continues to push the limits of what can financially occur; they have occurred huge losses and are now one of the most leveraged airlines in the US – in an industry that already has some of the highest debt ratios in the business world. Just like with the US debt downgrade, at some point, you reach the limits and you have to restructure the business. It is NOT a given that AMR can continue to borrow money, even at higher interest rates.
ON that note, it is worth noting that AMR previously has said that they have pledged nearly all of their existing assets as collateral for existing loans. Therefore, it is highly possible that AMR will not be able to obtain Debtor in Possession financing which are the secured loans that a company takes out as they enter bankruptcy in order to provide the financing to get through bankruptcy. Given that AMR had several billion dollars in debt due this year and have announced they have renegotiated only part of it, they may be forced to start draining their cash coffers for debt repayments. If they also have to use that $6B in cash to ensure they can ride through a later BK, then it doesn’t look like quite so much after all. Debt payments are typically stopped or renegotiated in BK so AMR might be forced to file based on its inability to renegotiate its debt repayments and its inability to be able to pledge anything else as collateral to obtain DIP financing.
Add in the fact that there remain real fears that the US and Europe might be heading into another recession and that banking might get hit hard (a sector that is heavily concentrated in London where AA derives the majority of its European revenue), and it might be very risky for AA to continue to try to restructure outside of BK.
All of this talk isn’t intended to scare you but to help you and others realize that things could change very quickly and dramatically for AA employees; those who are prepared can weather what lies ahead. Having plenty of options to choose from could be a by product of having prepared; if you can continue on with life as you now know it, so be it. It is entirely possible that you could end up in a BETTER position by having prepared for the worst and then be able to respond faster and better than others.
Either BK is a valid business strategy – and is not immoral – or it is immoral and it will continue to be immoral when AA ultimately has to do the same thing that other airlines have done.
You and your fab three or four defenders of mgmt might want to confer and get the story straight…. We’ll give you a hint though that BK is in the US legal code… so not quite sure how you or anyone can argue that BK is immoral if it is part of the legal code.
Or perhaps you can come up with an answer for whatever other parts of the US legal code are in fact immoral.
And I am sure that we would want to defend pay cuts as being the “morally right” thing to do, would we?
I see you want to continue with the same line of thinking that the rest of the fAAn club uses – that other airline employees have suffered far more so AA employees should be thankful that they have not endured the same fate?
Do you three or four have a morning conference call to try and get your talking points all lined up?
BTW, the other companies may be FORMERLY FAILING but AMR is CURRENTLY FAILING. As FWAAA notes, AA’s equity is priced at BK levels and the expectation on Wall Street (which is more than a little confused what to do overall), is more than clear that AMR is not worth as much as airlines a whole lot smaller and with far fewer assets.
As such, continuing to compare what AA employees have today is rather pointless until AA reaches the same level of sustainability as its peers. At that point how about you trot out your pom poms and tell AA employees how well they have fared?
You are right that part of the reason that other airlines have been able to grow their revenue is because they have the right tools including aircraft to go after new revenue streams for them - which has often meant tapping into AA’s revenue.
I doubt very seriously that AA will choose to or succeed in placing a 90-100 seater at AA, partly because the economics still are not favorable for a plane of that size using mainline costs. Even B6 w/ its lack of legacy costs is moving away from the 100 seater to more and more larger 150 and larger jets. Higher fuel prices make it even harder for smaller aircraft to be cost efficient at mainline.
Further, AA still faces structural issues as a result of being a smaller airline trying to compete against DL and UA which are much larger; you have certainly noticed that DL is reducing 50 seat capacity and consolidating connecting traffic into more and more mainline flights because that is the most cost-effective way to carry passengers. The 50 seat and other RJs are a poor substitute for mainline jets on the domestic network but the costs will quickly prove unworkable when AA is forced to use less efficient jets against standard size 150-160 seat mainline jets that form the backbone of the domestic fleet… remember that DL and WN as the two largest domestic carriers are very close to carrying 50% of the US domestic market and because of their size the two of them drive how the rest of the industry can successfully compete in the US domestic market.
FWAAA is correct that it does make sense for AMR to have placed orders for aircraft prior to going into BK – but it is fairly common knowledge that A and B both received concessions in the contracts that AMR can’t reject those aircraft which were ordered in BK and those aircraft must remain parts of the AA fleet post-BK. The fact that no other manufacturer won a share of AA’s order says the chances are very small that AA will introduce another aircraft type at least until a few years after BK – and they still will be putting huge numbers of new aircraft into service in the near future.
So, it is highly unlikely that AA will get a 90 or 100 seat aircraft in their fleet which means the ability of competitors to erode AA’s markets will likely continue.
What AA could benefit from is the ability to deploy the 76 seat versions of the 170 and CR9 which have become standard in the US industry and which APA will have a harder time convincing a judge that AA should not be allowed to do. Given those types of aircraft are in high demand, I doubt that AA will succeed in putting significant numbers of those aircraft in service for quite some time… meaning again that AA’s revenue will continue to be under assault from airlines that do have the right tools right now.
But I do appreciate you acknowledging that AA does have a revenue production product which is what I have been saying for quite some time…. I was just at ORD and was amazed at the number of passengers DL was boarding on both its LGA and JFK service – all on large RJs. As we know from DOT data, DL IS carrying average fares comparable to AA and UA – so you are absolutely right that the right tools go a long way to helping generate revenue, esp. in highly competitive markets.
For those who are tired of hearing this talk of BK, the only reason it persists is because AMR continues to push the limits of what can financially occur; they have occurred huge losses and are now one of the most leveraged airlines in the US – in an industry that already has some of the highest debt ratios in the business world. Just like with the US debt downgrade, at some point, you reach the limits and you have to restructure the business. It is NOT a given that AMR can continue to borrow money, even at higher interest rates.
ON that note, it is worth noting that AMR previously has said that they have pledged nearly all of their existing assets as collateral for existing loans. Therefore, it is highly possible that AMR will not be able to obtain Debtor in Possession financing which are the secured loans that a company takes out as they enter bankruptcy in order to provide the financing to get through bankruptcy. Given that AMR had several billion dollars in debt due this year and have announced they have renegotiated only part of it, they may be forced to start draining their cash coffers for debt repayments. If they also have to use that $6B in cash to ensure they can ride through a later BK, then it doesn’t look like quite so much after all. Debt payments are typically stopped or renegotiated in BK so AMR might be forced to file based on its inability to renegotiate its debt repayments and its inability to be able to pledge anything else as collateral to obtain DIP financing.
Add in the fact that there remain real fears that the US and Europe might be heading into another recession and that banking might get hit hard (a sector that is heavily concentrated in London where AA derives the majority of its European revenue), and it might be very risky for AA to continue to try to restructure outside of BK.
All of this talk isn’t intended to scare you but to help you and others realize that things could change very quickly and dramatically for AA employees; those who are prepared can weather what lies ahead. Having plenty of options to choose from could be a by product of having prepared; if you can continue on with life as you now know it, so be it. It is entirely possible that you could end up in a BETTER position by having prepared for the worst and then be able to respond faster and better than others.