WorldTraveler said: “I repeat that paybacks are no fun. If you think DL won't be gunning at US now, you are in for a rude awakening.â€
EyeInTheSky said: The reality is today is a good day to be US Airways; not Delta Air Lines.
USA320Pilot comments: Let’s put WorldTraveler’s and Eye’s comments into perspective.
- Doug Parker said, "At US Airways, we are extremely confident in our own stand-alone plan. Earlier this week, we announced a 2006 profit (excluding charges) of over $500 million, far and away the best performance by a network airline. Our employees will share $59 million of well-deserved profit sharing payments as a result. Looking forward, we expect even higher earnings and a higher profit sharing pool in 2007. Can Delta make the same statement?
- Delta obtain a loan to pay of its DIP financing replacing them with $2.5 billion in funds, but this has not materially affected the company’s finances, which does not materially improve the Atlanta-based company’s finances.
- Oil prices are once again climbing. Who can better handle the spike? A bankrupt company attempting to emerge or the most profitable legacy airline?
- Thus, what are US Airways’ options, which are not currently available to Delta, because the Atlanta-based company is still operating at the discretion of the court and creditors committee?
According to CBS news, US Airways first bid for Atlanta-based Delta in November, setting off speculation of further consolidation in the airline industry. But Parker said Tuesday that that's unlikely. He said it's tough to make an airline merger work unless one of the carriers is going through bankruptcy, which would allow the combined company to get out of expensive leases and contracts. Parker said if Delta wasn't interested, the only other airline that would be good to combine with was Northwest Airlines, which also is going through bankruptcy. "If both Delta and Northwest emerge from bankruptcy standalone, I don't think you'll see consolidation of the airline industry in this cycle," Parker said.
“There was too much stacked against it,†Ray Neidl, a Calyon Securities Inc. analyst in New York, said of the US Airways bid. “I think US Airways eventually goes after somebody else. They've got an aggressive management team.â€
USA320Pilot asks: Could US Airways pursue Northwest, which may be more agreeable to a deal? If so, could United then pursue Continental and Delta be left at the alter as a weakened carrier, who has not been focusing on its standalone plan, while expending a large amount of energy and resources fighting off US Airways’ bid?
According to the New York Times, Delta's creditors committee, led by Boeing Co., was divided between those favoring the US Airways offer and those that would benefit if Delta stayed independent, people familiar with the panel had said.
Could Boeing have lost a very big aircraft order and could US Airways replace its B737-300/400 fleet with Airbus aircraft?
Apparently, Delta ALPA is more cautious on US Airways announcing it is pulling its bid. In a statement the union indicated, “We are one step closer to our goal for Delta to be a successful, profitable airline, but the real victory will be exiting bankruptcy," said Lee Moak, Delta ALPA MEC chairman.
I’m not sure what US Airways intends to do next, but options include making an attempt to acquire Northwest, placing a large order for Airbus aircraft, or continuing to compete with a weaker Delta. Moreover, US Airways’ investors appear to be happy with the company with the stock trading higher by $1.80 or 3.39% on greater than average volume in mid-afternoon trading.
Yes, it appears EyeInTheSky is more accurate than WorldTraveler.
And, I think DCaf's comments are accurate as well.
Regards,
USA320Pilot