USA320Pilot
Veteran
US Airways Group, Inc. (Overweight) - 60-second Update
Click here for report.
Best regards,
USA320Pilot
Click here for report.
Best regards,
USA320Pilot
J.P. Morgan Initial Report on US Airways
- Thread starter USA320Pilot
- Start date
RowUnderDCA
Veteran
Good Grief, USA3, you could probably end up finally winning an argument if you wouldn't insist on overstating how wrong your opponents are. There probably is a little room for interpretation in these numbers, but if you don't calculate integration costs as 'special items' I think that what Clue was saying is probably defensible. I'll bet that neither of you will concede that it's close to a draw and let it go.... jiminy!
delldude
Veteran
thought it was a grosso no no to specifically name a respected member in a post title. 
ClueByFour
Veteran
The question is more "how could 320pilot be so disingenuous again?"
No EPS--to repeat--no earnings. The company did not make money. Let's look at what JP Morgan had to say, and highlight the portions which are exactly in line with what I'd said would happen:
Called that.
But hey, let's not forget the $90 million dollar gain from Airbus, because without it, there are no profits.
Keep trying. It is (if nothing else) amusing. Try this one on for size: you cannot shrink an airline into profitability--which is basically what is happening. Thanks for your pension: it's going to allow LCC to have a couple of years of moderate "success" (depending upon the real labor integration) only to be brought down to earth once the shrinking and running to non-LCC (the real variety) markets play runs out of steam.
OP
USA320Pilot
Veteran
- Thread Starter
- Thread starter
- #6
ClueByFour:
You're kidding right? Then again...
ClueByFour said: "Now, what USA320Pilot is trying to say is that LCC will make money (according to this analyst he's quoted) in the quarter. That's not what the guy actually said. "Excluding integration costs." Why do you think that is, USA320Pilot? Might it perhaps be that when the integration costs are included that there either won't be a profit or it won't be close to 10 cents/share?"
See quote
USA320Pilot comments: By the way, Doug Parker just told airline analysts US Airways would be profitable for all of 2006 including merger related costs (at current energy prices).
ClueByFour said; "Look for much higher than anticipated "integration costs" and much lower than expected "synergy savings." I've run billion dollar integrations from an IT and process perspective--Parker's estimated "synergies" in those areas alone is laughably optimistic. As for when? I'm not willing to crawl out on the same limb as airline analysts looking for a nice pump and dump opportunity, largely because nobody without serious hedges has a business plan that can support $70/bbl (or higher) oil."
See Quote
USA320Pilot comments: Management just said RASM increases are leading the industry, the company is increasing fuel hedges, and merger cost synergies (savings) are more than anticipated in the merger plan.
Clue, would it not be better to admit you're wrong (again)?
Best regards,
USA320Pilot
You're kidding right? Then again...
ClueByFour said: "Now, what USA320Pilot is trying to say is that LCC will make money (according to this analyst he's quoted) in the quarter. That's not what the guy actually said. "Excluding integration costs." Why do you think that is, USA320Pilot? Might it perhaps be that when the integration costs are included that there either won't be a profit or it won't be close to 10 cents/share?"
See quote
USA320Pilot comments: By the way, Doug Parker just told airline analysts US Airways would be profitable for all of 2006 including merger related costs (at current energy prices).
ClueByFour said; "Look for much higher than anticipated "integration costs" and much lower than expected "synergy savings." I've run billion dollar integrations from an IT and process perspective--Parker's estimated "synergies" in those areas alone is laughably optimistic. As for when? I'm not willing to crawl out on the same limb as airline analysts looking for a nice pump and dump opportunity, largely because nobody without serious hedges has a business plan that can support $70/bbl (or higher) oil."
See Quote
USA320Pilot comments: Management just said RASM increases are leading the industry, the company is increasing fuel hedges, and merger cost synergies (savings) are more than anticipated in the merger plan.
Clue, would it not be better to admit you're wrong (again)?
Best regards,
USA320Pilot
EyeInTheSky
Veteran
ClueByFour:
You're kidding right? Then again...
ClueByFour said: "Now, what USA320Pilot is trying to say is that LCC will make money (according to this analyst he's quoted) in the quarter. That's not what the guy actually said. "Excluding integration costs." Why do you think that is, USA320Pilot? Might it perhaps be that when the integration costs are included that there either won't be a profit or it won't be close to 10 cents/share?"
See quote
USA320Pilot comments: By the way, Doug Parker just told airline analysts US Airways would be profitable for all of 2006 including merger related costs (at current energy prices).
ClueByFour said; "Look for much higher than anticipated "integration costs" and much lower than expected "synergy savings." I've run billion dollar integrations from an IT and process perspective--Parker's estimated "synergies" in those areas alone is laughably optimistic. As for when? I'm not willing to crawl out on the same limb as airline analysts looking for a nice pump and dump opportunity, largely because nobody without serious hedges has a business plan that can support $70/bbl (or higher) oil."
USA320Pilot comments: Management just said RASM increases are leading the industry, the company is increasing fuel hedges, merger cost synergies are more than anticipated in the merger plan.
Clue, would it not be better to admit you're wrong (again)?
Best regards,
USA320Pilot
You feeling like a man again USA320Pilot? What's next more United bashing? You just can't help yourself, can you?
delldude
Veteran
where's boeing boy???
OP
USA320Pilot
Veteran
- Thread Starter
- Thread starter
- #10
Eye:
I never bashed United and simply reported "Project Minnow" discussions or what I called the UTC/ITC, while they were happening. I never said the two companies would merge, just that there were advanced discussions where US Airways was negotiating to buy United assets. Remember when David Bronner spoke about this in three different interviews?
Speaking of United it's interesting to compare US Airways' and United's first quarter results.
I believe that is why US Airways Captain Ken Newberry on a Shuttle flight over heard United executives discussing Bruce Lakefield's rejection of United's most recent merger attempt last year. This quarters earnings report clearly indicates why US Airways rejected United and choose America West as its merger partner and United executives wer so upset with Lakefield's decision, according to Newberry.
See Story
See Story
Best regards,
USA320Pilot
I never bashed United and simply reported "Project Minnow" discussions or what I called the UTC/ITC, while they were happening. I never said the two companies would merge, just that there were advanced discussions where US Airways was negotiating to buy United assets. Remember when David Bronner spoke about this in three different interviews?
Speaking of United it's interesting to compare US Airways' and United's first quarter results.
I believe that is why US Airways Captain Ken Newberry on a Shuttle flight over heard United executives discussing Bruce Lakefield's rejection of United's most recent merger attempt last year. This quarters earnings report clearly indicates why US Airways rejected United and choose America West as its merger partner and United executives wer so upset with Lakefield's decision, according to Newberry.
See Story
See Story
Best regards,
USA320Pilot
Travelpro72
Veteran
- Jan 30, 2005
- 4,964
- 455
Boy oh boy is this thread filled with information. What is the purpose of this all? Like a bunch of freakin children.
OP
USA320Pilot
Veteran
- Thread Starter
- Thread starter
- #12
Here are some interesting points from today's earnings report:
For Q1/06 vs. /05:
Operating profit $43M vs. loss $182 - $225M improvement
Personnel costs down $79M - 19% reduction
Revenue Including Express up $182M - up 11%
Fuel up only $28M. Per-gallon $1.92 vs $1.47 - up 30%
Mainline ASM down 16%. Revenue per ASM up 22%.
CASM 11.44 vs.10.51 - up 8.8%
CASM ex. fuel 8.42 vs 8.07 - up 4%
Load Factor 75.2% vs. 73.2%
Meanwhile, this thread was started simply by posting an analyst investment report, which disuptes ClueByFour's statements. As I receive more reports I will post them.
Regards,
USA320Pilot
For Q1/06 vs. /05:
Operating profit $43M vs. loss $182 - $225M improvement
Personnel costs down $79M - 19% reduction
Revenue Including Express up $182M - up 11%
Fuel up only $28M. Per-gallon $1.92 vs $1.47 - up 30%
Mainline ASM down 16%. Revenue per ASM up 22%.
CASM 11.44 vs.10.51 - up 8.8%
CASM ex. fuel 8.42 vs 8.07 - up 4%
Load Factor 75.2% vs. 73.2%
Meanwhile, this thread was started simply by posting an analyst investment report, which disuptes ClueByFour's statements. As I receive more reports I will post them.
Regards,
USA320Pilot
mlt
Senior
"Watching with amusement.....
Jim"
As soon as the 'Lark Ascends' the amusement will really kick in! Anyone know where he/she has been?
Jim"
As soon as the 'Lark Ascends' the amusement will really kick in! Anyone know where he/she has been?
OP
USA320Pilot
Veteran
- Thread Starter
- Thread starter
- #14
ClueByFour:
What do you think of the following quotes:
"The numbers were great. The (revenue) numbers were fantastic," said Standard & Poor's equity analyst Jim Corridore. "It's a very encouraging report."
"Looking forward, we anticipate a very strong spring and summer and now expect to be profitable for the full year 2006, even after accounting for merger-related expenses and with continued high fuel costs," Chief Executive Doug Parker said in a statement.
"There is a strong macro trend in RASM (revenue per available seat mile) and yield increases for the industry as domestic capacity is being cut back," said Calyon Securities analyst Ray Neidl in a research note. "However, the old America West management that is now running the combined companies is doing a commendable job in controlling costs but, even more importantly, raising yields in the old US Airways system," he said.
See quotes
Clue, how about these quotes?
ClueByFour said: ""Look for much higher than anticipated "integration costs" and much lower than expected "synergy savings." I've run billion dollar integrations from an IT and process perspective--Parker's estimated "synergies" in those areas alone is laughably optimistic. As for when? I'm not willing to crawl out on the same limb as airline analysts looking for a nice pump and dump opportunity, largely because nobody without serious hedges has a business plan that can support $70/bbl (or higher) oil."
See quote
"Those guys deserve the accolades," said Ray Neidl, an analyst with Calyon Securities Inc. who tracks the airline industry and estimated a 20 cent per-share loss for the quarter. "Making a profit in the first quarter with $75 per barrel oil is quite a feat."
See quote
Regards,
USA320Pilot
What do you think of the following quotes:
"The numbers were great. The (revenue) numbers were fantastic," said Standard & Poor's equity analyst Jim Corridore. "It's a very encouraging report."
"Looking forward, we anticipate a very strong spring and summer and now expect to be profitable for the full year 2006, even after accounting for merger-related expenses and with continued high fuel costs," Chief Executive Doug Parker said in a statement.
"There is a strong macro trend in RASM (revenue per available seat mile) and yield increases for the industry as domestic capacity is being cut back," said Calyon Securities analyst Ray Neidl in a research note. "However, the old America West management that is now running the combined companies is doing a commendable job in controlling costs but, even more importantly, raising yields in the old US Airways system," he said.
See quotes
Clue, how about these quotes?
ClueByFour said: ""Look for much higher than anticipated "integration costs" and much lower than expected "synergy savings." I've run billion dollar integrations from an IT and process perspective--Parker's estimated "synergies" in those areas alone is laughably optimistic. As for when? I'm not willing to crawl out on the same limb as airline analysts looking for a nice pump and dump opportunity, largely because nobody without serious hedges has a business plan that can support $70/bbl (or higher) oil."
See quote
"Those guys deserve the accolades," said Ray Neidl, an analyst with Calyon Securities Inc. who tracks the airline industry and estimated a 20 cent per-share loss for the quarter. "Making a profit in the first quarter with $75 per barrel oil is quite a feat."
See quote
Regards,
USA320Pilot
These are the same "analysts" who had us out of business "in a few months" a year or so ago.
Buy all the stock you can get your hands on 320. We're a money making machine! No doubt about it. In fact, I'd get into some put options if I were you. And don't forget about the leverage you can exploit buying the stock on margin.
Yep, a money making machine.
It's a sure thing. The analysts say so.
pilot
Buy all the stock you can get your hands on 320. We're a money making machine! No doubt about it. In fact, I'd get into some put options if I were you. And don't forget about the leverage you can exploit buying the stock on margin.
Yep, a money making machine.
It's a sure thing. The analysts say so.
pilot
