There is no question the mature hub and spoke airlines continue to remain under economic stress.
The soft economy, war jitters, pre-war fuel prices, terrorist jitters, security costs, and the massive decline in international airline traffic have all provided miserable fundamentals.
However, it appears we have hit a bottom, and without another "shock event", I believe better financial days are ahead.
Last week UBS Warburg airline analyst Sam Buttrick said he now expects U.S. airlines'' to report losses totaling $7 billion in 2003, slimmer than a prior estimate of $7.8 billion.
In the case of US, the company has nearly $2 billion in liquidity, RSA is on the hook for $315 million, and the retirement fund would be just another creditor if US files for bankruptcy again. How likely is it Bronner would allow that to happen with his DIP status?
Let''s not forget US will receive about $35 million in savings from reduced security fees, fuel prices have dropped from $1.05 to 72 cents per gallon, strong summer traffic has returned, the company says its UA code share revenue is exceeding expectations, the airline continues to add new RJ flying each month (that will accelerate to 7 RJs per month entering the network for the next 3 years), the company has the 5% wage deferral in place for the next 16 months that provides about $8 million per month in cash flow relief, and the Lufthansa and Star alliance will come on-line later this year.
In my opinion, Siegel''s liquidation threat has more to do with ALPA''s efforts to restore its Defined Benefit Plan, the company to skirt around the ALPA scope clause to deploy the CRJ-705, or to scare Allegheny County and the State of Pennsylvania into providing concessions.
Siegel uses the Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt tactic much like Stephen Wolf and because of the fundamental factors listed above, I believe Siegel''s threats are more of let''s work together guys or more appropriately do what I want, or I''ll shut the airline down.
However, I can tell you this...virtually all of the ALPA members do not buy the current threat.
Best regards,
Chip