eolesen
Veteran
- Joined
- Jul 23, 2003
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Pssst....E......don't let him see any Indie polling........
Sorry, can't resist. It's like clubbing baby seals right now.
Rasmussen is showing the party split as 34 percent Democrats, 37 percent Republicans, 29 percent independent.
Gallup is showing the split as 35 percent Democrats, 36 percent Republicans, and 29 percent independent.
WaPo/ABC is also showing Romney ahead 49/48. Interestingly, they have a party split of 35/28/34, which is not even close to plausible -- it's got Republicans 5 points under the 2008 election, and 7 points under the 2010 shellacking....
Politico/GWU's headline has Obama ahead 49/48, and is definitely left leaning (as is Politico). When you dig into the detais where they crunch the numbers down to just likely voters, it comes out Romney 52/47...
http://images.politico.com/global/2012/10/goeasbattlegroundmemooct28.html
In sum, this data indicates this election remains very close on the surface, but the political
environment and the composition of the likely electorate favor Governor Romney. These
factors come into play with our “vote election model” – which takes into account variables
like vote intensity, voters who say they are definite in their vote, and demographics like age
and education. In that snapshot of today’s vote model, Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama by
five-points – 52% to 47%. While that gap can certainly be closed by the ground game of the
Democrats, reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney
may well be heading to a decisive victory.
Tick.
Tock.