pilots and flight attendants BOTH sign a merger agreement!

[johnny kat]

700,

It could be called the "Who's afraid of Virginia Wolf" game.

WT,

You're points are well taken. I do not believe that any US or AA employee would disagree with you about the need for the new AA to raise more revenue other than what US generates. And none of us expects a big windfall in employee wages, heck the past few years with Parker at the helm has demonstrated just how hard it will be to achieve anything akin to fair wages.

So, everyone needs to understand the simple facts of what this merger is all about. AA is in a jam and needs to raise some serious revenues quickly, for the short term (2 or 3 years). In order to payoff creditors and bond holders the company has to have a plan. Not necessarily the best plan, as time is of the essence. Enter US, with a slew of it's own issues that need to be dealt with. A merger gives both companies a way to save face. Not to mention the very large payday for the management that makes this workable in the short term.

This is a marriage of convenience and that is all. Everyone gets it. The problem with this is the children are going to be the ones who pay for it. With that said the employees are just going to have to live with it, and keep trudging along until they reach retirement or quit. It is just that simple. There are no lolipops or capricorns, just the reality that only the actual work remains to be done by those who are willing to do it for the wages they are paid.

 

[WorldTraveler]

I commend you, Kat, for engaging in the conversation because I believe we are converging at the same point despite months and months of seeing each other as the enemy of our position.

700 doesn't get that and tries to use his bully pulpit to shut down anything that doesn't smack of his agenda..... and in this case, his agenda is believing that AA-US is the best thing since sliced bread.
It is true on this thread and throughout this forum.

If 700 was half as certain of his position, then he would be willing to stick around and discuss the topic - but that's not how he operates.

AA-US is a reasonable alternative for both companies but the logic that supports it is based on other carriers - and it is far from certain that AA-US will see the same results.
No one has acknowledged how hard it will be for AA-US to regain market share or win competitive battles against other carriers which have settled mergers and far deeper purses than does either AA or US.

The analysts and managers all hype this merger because it produces wins for them - but there is absolutely no evidence that the short-term gains will trickle down to employees. By the time the market realizes that AA-US really doesn't have the ingredients to win against DL and UA and WN, they will have sold out and the employees will be stuck with another bill to make another restructuring work.

Congrats on your willingness to engage the topic and use good logic and understanding of the realities of the industry.

 

[Bob Owens]

700,

It could be called the "Who's afraid of Virginia Wolf" game.

WT,

You're points are well taken. I do not believe that any US or AA employee would disagree with you about the need for the new AA to raise more revenue other than what US generates. And none of us expects a big windfall in employee wages, heck the past few years with Parker at the helm has demonstrated just how hard it will be to achieve anything akin to fair wages.

So, everyone needs to understand the simple facts of what this merger is all about. AA is in a jam and needs to raise some serious revenues quickly, for the short term (2 or 3 years). In order to payoff creditors and bond holders the company has to have a plan. Not necessarily the best plan, as time is of the essence. Enter US, with a slew of it's own issues that need to be dealt with. A merger gives both companies a way to save face. Not to mention the very large payday for the management that makes this workable in the short term.

This is a marriage of convenience and that is all. Everyone gets it. The problem with this is the children are going to be the ones who pay for it. With that said the employees are just going to have to live with it, and keep trudging along until they reach retirement or quit. It is just that simple. There are no lolipops or capricorns, just the reality that only the actual work remains to be done by those who are willing to do it for the wages they are paid.

If thats the case then why not kill it as quickly as possible so the healthy carriers can pick up the capacity, and the workers?

 

[700UW]

WT,

Do you need glasses?

Show me where I have said this merger is good, bad or indifferent?

I have said none of the above.

So why do you have the "Spector" screen name to boost your terrible reputation, which you admitted and is a violation of the board's TOS?

 

[WorldTraveler]

yes, it is precisely because you have said nothing good, bad, or indifferent and only want to shut down everyone else that we are having this conversation.

EVERYONE can see why this merger is a 2nd best fit that doesn't address the real issues and certainly won't bring any benefit to AA employees as AA union leaders keep spouting - except you.

NO ONE else can deny that DL has had a field day over the past 7 years picking off AA and US markets and continues to do the same thing - and yet we hear promises of all the revenue growth that this merger will deliver.

ANYONE who continues to drink the kool-aid that this merger will deliver benefits when both AA and US' network is facing more and more competition needs to take a stiff drink.... a very stiff one.

WN did the same thing for several years in the early 2000s. It is no surprise that DL is doing the same thing now; no carrier has regained that lost revenue.

Employees will not benefit, more employees will be laid off as a result of consolidation, and labor will lose more unionized jobs in the airline industry - one of the few heavily unionized private sector industries left.

If you think that is a win for labor, then you jump right in. But there are a whole lot of people who want to know the truth before they kiss their jobs goodbye and help to further weaken the labor movement.

BTW, I could care less about reputation on this forum - if I did wouldn't say what I say here. I have posted what I have posted because it is accurate and it serves as a warning to those who choose to believe it.

There are a whole lot of people who are now realizing that the opposition I have long had to this merger and which I backed up w/ numbers and evidence from other mergers is real. For those people, I am glad to be able to contribute understanding.

Bob,
the reason why AA and US can't be killed is because AA is too big to be picked up by other carriers in total and AA doesn't work as a unit anymore when you start picking off the best parts. The creditors get better recovery by allowing AA and US to stay alive for another day.
And remember that AA and US' creditors and debtholders are many of the same ones for other carriers in the industry. It is much less risky for the other carriers who control 75% of US carrier capacity to just let them keep picking away at AA and US individually than to have them take on something that may or may not be able to be turned around.

More and more capacity will leave the US industry and it is doubtful that there can be 3 large megacarriers - AA, DL, and UA plus WN and several niche carriers long term.

It has taken 35 years to get the industry down to 5 large carriers including WN.

The process is not finished.

 

[700UW]

yes, it is precisely because you have said nothing good, bad, or indifferent and only want to shut down everyone else that we are having this conversation.

And in your previous post you said this, so your lying.

700 doesn't get that and tries to use his bully pulpit to shut down anything that doesn't smack of his agenda..... and in this case, his agenda is believing that AA-US is the best thing since sliced bread.
It is true on this thread and throughout this forum.

If 700 was half as certain of his position, then he would be willing to stick around and discuss the topic - but that's not how he operates.

So you speak out of both sides of your mouth.

How many mergers have you been through?

I have been through three.

And why are you ignoring this?

So why do you have the "Spector" screen name to boost your terrible reputation, which you admitted and is a violation of the board's TOS?

 

[WorldTraveler]

you have argued w/ PIT incessantly over the value of this merger... I'm just not going to take the time to look for it.

I have no idea who "Spector" is....

but you obviously keep bringing anything up to divert everyone's attention from the real topic at hand which is to debunk the lie which AA labor unions have bought into that this merger is going to produce real benefits for AA frontline employees, the ones they are supposed to represent.

Focus on the topic at hand - if you possibly can.

And if you can't, quit trying to shoot down those who are able to carry on a congent conversation.

 

[700UW]

Bob and weave.

You admitted to Kevin that you had the Spector screen name, shall I ask the mods to check your IP address?

And I have never argued with Pitbull over the merger, go find my posts, since you said I did. I know Pitbull personally she is a friend of mine, shall I ask her to come post here to show that your lying once again?

 

[blue collar]

If you're gonna ask the same question 4 times, have the info right. It's 'Spectator', not Spector.

 

[johnny kat]

Bob Owens:

If thats the case then why not kill it as quickly as possible so the healthy carriers can pick up the capacity, and the workers?
_____________________________________________________________________

Good point! That is a very rational response and way too level headed. You and I both know the answer to the question.

Either the 2 companies get together or they don't. I am trying to be optimistic about the prospects and am hoping that together we are stronger and a whole lot of people smarter than me are saying just that.

People can argue the pros and cons of a merger til they are blue in the face and in the end it all boils down to the most basic facts about this:

The reduction of capacity due to elimination of a competitor.

The rationalization of pricing.

The increasing of market share.

A reduction in overall employee costs.

All of the above will lead to a stabilzation of not just a new AA but the entire industry warts and all.

 

[WorldTraveler]

Bob Owens:

If thats the case then why not kill it as quickly as possible so the healthy carriers can pick up the capacity, and the workers?
_____________________________________________________________________

Good point! That is a very rational response and way too level headed. You and I both know the answer to the question.

Either the 2 companies get together or they don't. I am trying to be optimistic about the prospects and am hoping that together we are stronger and a whole lot of people smarter than me are saying just that.

People can argue the pros and cons of a merger til they are blue in the face and in the end it all boils down to the most basic facts about this:

The reduction of capacity due to elimination of a competitor.

The rationalization of pricing.

The increasing of market share.

A reduction in overall employee costs.

All of the above will lead to a stabilzation of not just a new AA but the entire industry warts and all.

AA and US may eliminate capacity thru a merger but no one has yet to address the continued incursion of other carriers' into AA and US' networks -at some point, AA and US become less and less necessary in the industry because they have fewer and fewer markets that they "own" without competition.

AA's decision to eliminate even more JFK-Caribbean flying isn't happening because AA is successfully competing against other carriers; AA's continued pulldowns weaken their network and make it harder and harder to argue that the combined network provides more strength compared to what they would have had before.

If AA and US merge and AA is forced to shrink NYC even more - and that is not that hard to believe given that AA is now #4 in NYC now (having been surpassed by B6), then PHL just serves as a replacement for NYC and DFW just serves as a replacement for PHX.


increased market share DOES NOT necessarily translate into profits... there are alot of big, money-losing companies.

Reduction in employee costs thru - LAYOFFS. Again how is this a win for labor?

 

[jimntx]

WT,

You're points are well taken. I do not believe that any US or AA employee would disagree with you about the need for the new AA to raise more revenue other than what US generates. And none of us expects a big windfall in employee wages, heck the past few years with Parker at the helm has demonstrated just how hard it will be to achieve anything akin to fair wages.

But, that's just the point, Johnny. A LOT of the AA and US posters are, in fact, expecting a big employee financial windfall from this merger, and it's not going to happen. Simple arithmetic tells you so. LCC is making profits because it's pilots and f/as are paid well below the industry average. Calculate what the total payroll would be for those workgroups if they were paid AA rates, and those vaunted profits disappear. Add to that the fact that Parker has made promises to those AA workgroups that he cannot keep. He has promised us (the f/as) a better deal that what we got in the LBFO this last round of cuts. To do that takes money. Now, if he is going to use the LCC profits to lift the LCC pilots and f/as to AA rates, where is he going to get the money to restore the pay and benefits to even the AA f/as, much less the AA pilots?

So, everyone needs to understand the simple facts of what this merger is all about. AA is in a jam and needs to raise some serious revenues quickly, for the short term (2 or 3 years). In order to payoff creditors and bond holders the company has to have a plan. Not necessarily the best plan, as time is of the essence. Enter US, with a slew of it's own issues that need to be dealt with. A merger gives both companies a way to save face. Not to mention the very large payday for the management that makes this workable in the short term.

This is a marriage of convenience and that is all. Everyone gets it. The problem with this is the children are going to be the ones who pay for it. With that said the employees are just going to have to live with it, and keep trudging along until they reach retirement or quit. It is just that simple. There are no lolipops or capricorns, just the reality that only the actual work remains to be done by those who are willing to do it for the wages they are paid.

And, the US issues--specifically the pilot and f/a seniority list issues--are just going to make the situation much worse when you add in the AA pilots and f/as. Overall, our workgroups are more senior than LCCs. Note that I said overall. We do not need to get into a p*ss*ng match about who has the most senior pilot or f/a. We all know that in a merger stations are going to close. Employees are going to lose their jobs.

Given AA's past history with just about every airline they have ever bought/merged with, does that make any of you on the LCC side feel at all safe? AA has major operations/hubs at MIA, DCA, NYC, BOS. How do PHL and CLT fare against that? AA has major operations at ORD, DFW, LAX, SFO. How does PHX fare against that arrangement?

Remember, STL was going to be a reliever hub for ORD. When I was recalled from furlough in November, 2004, there were still about 200 departures/day from STL (down from over 400 the last full year that TWA operated there). Today, STL has 28 (I think) mainline departures/day. Something like 19 or 20 of them go either to DFW or ORD. (You will be happy to know, though, that WN is booming in STL. Over at East Terminal, you can't stir the passengers with a baseball bat. )

The Reno Air purchase is another example. However, that was before my time. I just know that Reno had a lot of flights from RNO to other destinations. Today AA has 2 daily mainline flights to RNO from DFW and 1 from ORD. There are some AE flights from LAX, but even after I started with AA in 2000 there used to be mainline service from LAX to RNO.

Just FYI, I do not see AMR management just walking away and letting someone else take over. It's just not their nature. Especially, if walking away could be viewed as an admission on their part that there management was anything other than perfect. AA's only problem was that they paid the employees too much. Otherwise, every management decision for the past 10 years would have resulted in massive profits. (700, those last two sentences are called using sarcasm; so, don't get your panties in a wad.)

I think 1AA is right in that AMR management got through bankruptcy what they knew they could not get through negotiation--new labor contracts and a reduced labor force.

 

[jimntx]

If thats the case then why not kill it as quickly as possible so the healthy carriers can pick up the capacity, and the workers?

That would be too sensible. Look at the history of the airline business in the U.S. for the past 50 years. It is hard to kill an airline. Pan Am, Eastern, and TWA were all in financial trouble long before they ceased operation. And, there is usually some billionaire with more money that sense who will step in and say, "I can succeed where others have failed. I know what this airline needs." (Think Icahn, Trump, et al.) Also, you have members of Congress that believe that their hometown airline is essential to the nations's defense and economic success and will vote unfunded subsidies to keep the dying airline on life support.

 

[777 / 767 / 757 Love]

US employees will continue to pound the merger drums, because they know that gets them much better pay and benefits because they get AA contracts. They also know they are screwed if AA comes out because they become the predator.

Notice how VERY few AA employees outside union leaders are pounding that drum. Most AA employees are just "resound" to the idea because they think its unstoppable.

Realistic facts and scenarios are beginning to win out over Parker rhetoric.

Cheers,
777 / 767 / 757

 

[700UW]

First of all they dont get AA's contracts.

US' Mechanics enjoy a better CBA than their AA counterparts.

Ramp is about equal, and the CSA's at US have a CBA, at AA they dont.

I guess they didnt teach you in law school when their is a merger, you have to negotiate either a transition agreement, or a new joint CBA.

Need to take a refresher course on the RLA? Oh thats the Railway Labor Act if you didnt know.

And no one know which union would survive, as if they gather enough cards, there will be a vote on which union to choose for each work group's representation.