Plane Business, Not Looking Good

[alexander66]

Isn't this Cordle guy a fleet qual scab? That would explain his bashing of the union. If he is who I think he is, he scabbed in '85, and that's the ONLY reason he's a 777 Captain right now. If I'm wrong, please correct me.

The rest of the stuff is really really obvious (UAL needs more cuts? Duh. We've know that for how long now, and I'm not even a CFA). The rest is speculation. I "speculate" that if UAL gets through this latest round of cuts, oil prices and overcapacity will be everyone elses' problem, not ours, until the rest of the industry shakes out.

[post="199337"][/post]​

Ualdriver why dont you grow up and stop calling names.It could be said that you are a dumb ALPA lemming
ALPA put UAL inthe position it is in right now. It goes back to the dumb Strike called by the brilliant Roger Hall in 1985 and the we got the dumb Dubinski and the slowdown and sickout of 2000 really to let our passengers leave by the thousands . The hatred of the ALPA scum has really hurt the employee moral at UAL
Tilton should have cut ALPAs pay 60% last year to make up for all the money ALPA extorted from the carporation
YOU and the boys in blue are a piece of garbage and you deserve what you get
imho

 

[boeing787]

Hey shitbird... the strike of 85 was an absolute neccesity. Glad they did it. Once a scab always a scab. As for the FISH well he just plain stinks kinda like our pay cuts once again.

 

[alexander66]

Hey shitbird... the strike of 85 was an absolute neccesity. Glad they did it. Once a scab always a scab. As for the FISH well he just plain stinks kinda like our pay cuts once again.

[post="199711"][/post]​

Hey boeing787 ypu are about as stupid as dubinski and hall combined maybe even a a lot dumber

 

[Stratocruiser]

Hey shitbird... the strike of 85 was an absolute neccesity.

[post="199711"][/post]​

Kind of like how Duh-bya's invasion of Iraq was "necessary?"

 

[UAL_TECH]

The overriding question would be would a normal person make such remarks. Kind of like saying 'would you agree with Hitler's views on a master race if somebody else said it'. cordls is a he (although he obviously has no balls), getline in a she (and she has been said to have had her share of balls....)

[post="199613"][/post]​

Sooooooooo funny..........

UT

 

[Borescope]

It is well established that the only way to reduce costs in a high fixed cost industry like at airlines is to engage in continuous growth.

[post="199623"][/post]​

Which, with the fuel hedges aside, is exactly what WN has done all these years. And we all know the bottom line over there.

 

[WorldTraveler]

Actually, Borescope, WN has grown continuously for 30 plus years. Fuel has gone up before and WN wasn't hedged then. The guiding principle is growth. Fuel prices are just another industry occurrence that happen to have raised its head today.

 

[magsau]

Having flown with V. Cordle I would not call him anything near a "pilot". This is one of the weakest aviators I have ever flown with. He is so caught up in his own Walter Mitty mind of being a CFA that being a P-I-L-O-T is so far removed from his thoughts that when you are the PNF you wind up doing almost all of the flying while he gesticulates on the cost comparison of UAL and LUV.

This same individual told me in Dec of 2002 that we would be out of business in 6 weeks. Said with a smile on his face I might add. I canceled my subscription to PBB as a result of the decision to put his information to the public as an informed source. He is anything but an informed source. Also in Dec of 2002 he told me that AA would not be taking any type of paycut.

By the way he only has bid to the 777 he has not gone to school as of yet. Will be interesting if he can keep his mind focused long enough to make it through school. And yes he is a filthy dirty rotten good for nothin SCAB

 

[JungleClone]

Gee, how predictable this thread is. A respected (maybe not by the folks on this board, but he's respected in the financial community) financial analyst puts the reality of United's, and the industry's, situations into fresh perspective and we still see the inevitable piling on by folks who are not properly reading the tea leaves. The ONLY way that United survives this aviation apocalypse is if someone, anyone, comes up with a viable plan of reorganization that will make us profitable again. We're at two years and counting for Chapter 11 and all we have seen is one petition for extension after another. At some point, you either need to show your cards or fold your hand. How many more extensions is Judge Wedoff going to grant United Senior Mgmt before he forces them to show their plan, or lack thereof?

Take all the pot shots at Holly Hegeman that you want. But the reality is that she's right more oftan than she's not. She carries a lot of respect both in the industry and on Wall Street. She's a straight shooter who tells it like it is, even when it isn't what everyone wants to hear. Take your blinders off and do a little research and you'll see that her conclusions, and Vaughn's, are pretty much the current reality.

The reality of fuel prices is that they are NEVER going back down to $20-$25 per barrel. Not gonna happen. We are inching ever closer to peak oil production. And when that happens and becomes public, the effect on the world economy will be devastating.

2-3 large U.S. Airlines are simply not going to make it. Period. It's that simple. I believe US Airways is dangling on the vine and by sometime in early-to-mid 2005 will cease operations. If we (United) don't get our act together expeditiously, we'll join them. Anyone who thinks United can't liquidate is only fooling themself. Probably the same crowd that said United would never declare bankruptcy. It's all about liquidity and unrestricted cash these days. If United is unable to maintain liquidity going forward, they'll have no choice but to do some dastardly things. You can only go to the employees so many times before they just decide it isn't worth it anymore, and pull an Eastern. Other than the employees, you're talking about having no choice but to shed assets. And if that happens, you might as well dim the lights because the party will most certainly be over. Yes, 2-3 large airlines will go away, either via Chapter 7 liquidation or via M & A activity. And the latter will only happen if the U.S. Government wakes up and realizes that the only way to keep this industry going is to help consolidate it.

Getting back to Holly and Vaugh's commentary, I think Holly was dead on the mark when she took Tilton et al to task for their continued failure to present a reorg plan. I agree. It's disgraceful. Two years and we've seen nothing but extensions. Does anyone now doubt that this senior management team doesn't have a clue how to restructure this company? The REAL problem facing United is that even with the current cuts that they want from all of us, it STILL WON'T BE ENOUGH. That's right, folks. All it will do is buy a little more time in the hopes that oil will stabilize and then go back down, which isn't going to happen. There will be a lot more cost cutting beyond what's currently being sought before it's all said and done. The only question is how much of a stomach do the employees have to see it through? It's basically a race to see which airline can right down their pensions and get their CASM down to the 8 cent range first. We've squandered a two year headstart. How much more time do you think we have?

 

[WorldTraveler]

Jungle,
while I don't disagree with the latter part of your previous post, I find it hard to believe that Holly and Vaughn add anything of substance to the airline industry. Please post one thing Vaughn has written that adds any light over what was commonly accepted knowledge in the industry. And no they are not respected by anyone on Wall Street. I was in a presentation attended by several of the top financial firm airline analysts along with Holly, and I can tell you they made it clear they think she is a flake. She doesn't analyze anything and instead has elevated herself to the position of industry gossip. Yes, she has taken it upon herself to condemn certain industry actions but that doesn't make her an analyst. I decry some of the same things on this board but I sure don't make myself out to be an expert or demand payment for my advise (although I will accept your Amex number if you'd like to PM it to me).

 

[ualdriver]

JungleClone said: "The ONLY way that United survives this aviation apocalypse is if someone, anyone, comes up with a viable plan of reorganization that will make us profitable again. We're at two years and counting for Chapter 11 and all we have seen is one petition for extension after another. At some point, you either need to show your cards or fold your hand. How many more extensions is Judge Wedoff going to grant United Senior Mgmt before he forces them to show their plan, or lack thereof? "

Just because Tilton didn't call you up at home or didn't call the NY Times or didn't call Vaughn or Holly or whoever you personally think should be "in the know" and say, "Guys here our proprietary secret plan for exiting bankruptcy" doesn't mean there isn't a plan. Billions have been cut out of this company. Fleets have been elimated. Jobs have been eliminated. Routes have been shifted, added to, eliminated. Work rules have been drastically changed. TED has been started and is growing (successfully I might add). P.S. service has been started. A hub has been closed. The vast majority of upper management has been replaced. Aircraft leases are being renegotiated. And unfortunately, pensions are going to be gone and salaries are going to be cut further. More layoffs are likely. And that's just off the top of my head. Much more has been going on behind the scenes. And FYI, it's not uncommon for a company to stay in Chapter 11 reorganization for 2 years. It's better to stay in and do it right rather than rush out like US Air did the first time.


JungleClone said: "The reality of fuel prices is that they are NEVER going back down to $20-$25 per barrel. Not gonna happen. We are inching ever closer to peak oil production. And when that happens and becomes public, the effect on the world economy will be devastating."

IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT THE PRICE OF OIL. If you could JungleClone, you would be a GAZILLIONAIRE (that's a billionaire times a zillion) and woudln't be wasting your time on this forum.


JungleClone said: "The REAL problem facing United is that even with the current cuts that they want from all of us, it STILL WON'T BE ENOUGH. That's right, folks. All it will do is buy a little more time in the hopes that oil will stabilize and then go back down, which isn't going to happen. There will be a lot more cost cutting beyond what's currently being sought before it's all said and done. The only question is how much of a stomach do the employees have to see it through? It's basically a race to see which airline can right down their pensions and get their CASM down to the 8 cent range first. We've squandered a two year headstart. How much more time do you think we have?"

Well JungleClone, throw up some numbers to back that claim. I threw some back of the envelope numbers up in a previous thread based upon UAL's most recent quarterly filings and I completely disagree. I'm guessing that we're going to have a net loss of a bit over a billion dollars for the year (1.3B?), and that's with a year of ridiculously high oil prices and several hundred million dollars of reorganization expenses due to bankruptcy. Even if oil stays at $55 barrel, after 750M in labor cuts, 750M savings from pension elimination and 750M in non labor cuts that are yet to come (we'll see if this all comes to fruition, I admit), it seems to me that the above 750M x 3 far exceeds the billion+ that we'll probably end up losing this year, even if oil stays high. So please explain how it "still won't be enough?"

 

[Kev3188]

..... Once a scab always a scab....

[post="199711"][/post]​

Nothing in aviation rings more true than this....

 

[ualdriver]

Nothing in aviation rings more true than this....

[post="201179"][/post]​

Kev3188-

You had better take that back, lest we get another verbal tirade from alexander66!!!! (he-he)

 

[Kev3188]

Kev3188-

You had better take that back, lest we get another verbal tirade from alexander66!!!! (he-he)

[post="201215"][/post]​

Not happening.

 

[mrfish3726]

UALDriver says "Just because Tilton didn't call you up at home or didn't call the NY Times or didn't call Vaughn or Holly or whoever you personally think should be "in the know" and say, "Guys here our proprietary secret plan for exiting bankruptcy" doesn't mean there isn't a plan."

Only plan Tilton and the boyz have is getting the employees to finance the BK exit because as BRACE said "We don't have a plan that is finance able PERIOD" Meaning UniTED is tainted and no financial institution in it's right mind wants to give it exit financing. One of the big reasons that will be is that UALDriver says, "The vast majority of upper management has been replaced." This ones funny, there has NEVER been anything in the news about upper management changes. Only that Goodwin resigned, so Dutta got smart and left to. Creighton he was instilled as a puppet dictator then entered OIL MAN Tilton. All he did was realign the management that was left. You still got Brace and McDonald there, two clowns that haven't accomplished anything other to rake over the rank and file. McDonald single handedly tearing the heart out of UniTED'S maintenance operations, and he isn't down with that yet. He isn't done with the ground service and food service units yet either. Contract workers will replace them before it's all said and done. Driver, DID Tilton FIRE the top 200 people at UniTED? If he hasn't then nothing will change!!!


UAL Driver says, "TED has been started and is growing (successfully I might add)." This is SOOOOO FUNNY Driver, tell us how TED is any different from the mainline? Does TED have different pay scales for pilots, mechanics, gate agents, CSR, or FA'S????? Tell us why TED is anything different that the old UniTED shuttle other then a different fleet type with new paint. And give us the 3Q figures for TED’s profit or loss and the load factor for just TED. Or is it all consolidated in the mainline 3Q results just as the shuttle used to be. Wonder how UniTED likes selling those NEW winter fares for $99 bucks to Cabo for the winter and all the NEW fares they have to match to the other destinations that F9 serves???

UALDriver says "IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT THE PRICE OF OIL." Yeah we can't predict the price of oil, but with the current demand for oil by countries like China and India. You can bet that it won't EVER be $40 a barrel again, that is the reality that some airlines will face and the reason that some won't be around a year from now.

I know you'll just counter about how F'D F9 is and that we are the airline that is facing the end game, not UniTED. Remember UAL'S slogan "TED is the END of UniTED."