PLEASE, TELL ME WHY?

[FA Mikey]

FWAAA and others have pointed out time and again u simply is an unsustainable business model. Its made money on the back of employees and with those ancillary fees. With out which u would be in bankruptcy court for the 4th time.

 

[FWAAA]

FWAAA and others have pointed out time and again u simply is an unsustainable business model. Its made money on the back of employees and with those ancillary fees. With out which u would be in bankruptcy court for the 4th time.

But FA Mikey, you left out what I like to call the "Sugar Daddy" effect. AA generates high revenues on all those lucrative Latin American routes and those numerous flights to London and the celeb-heavy 3-class transcons and Parker can use some of those revenues to raise the pay of the low-paid US employees up to first world standards. Plus, the billions of dollars of "synergies" that will result when the magical CLT hub and wondrous PHL and DCA operations are grafted onto AA's network will also help pay the higher wage costs of the US employees and the AA employees who were promised more by Parker.

With Christmas just around the corner, no need to point out the myth of Santa to the dreamers . . .

 

[FA Mikey]

Here is hoping for my christmas wish. May AA survive and thrive post BK, may they build on what they have created and grow from there with the new 777's, 787's,737's, and all the airbus a/c. And if there had to be a merger, let it be jet blue like like all the previous mergers (excluding usair attempt to take over delta and United) done quietly behind the scenes and then sprung on us.

 

[WorldTraveler]

FWAAA and others have pointed out time and again u simply is an unsustainable business model. Its made money on the back of employees and with those ancillary fees. With out which u would be in bankruptcy court for the 4th time.

WRONG.
As much as you and the AA fan club want to try to say otherwise, US does not have an unsustainable business plan.
It does have a business plan that is not capable of supporting industry standard wages but US is making far more money than AA and US has demonstrated that it could remain as a standalone airline if it had to.
It would not be capable of competing on the same basis as other airlines but US' business plan is not sustainable.

And, in case you missed it, AA is in BK which means that its business plan was not sustainable. They've made alot of cuts - mostly on the backs of their employees - but it is far from certain how "sustainable" AA is post BK.

Nothing wrong w/ having problem in your company but don't twist the facts to suit your version of the story.

There will be no massive growth, Mikey. AA has already said they intend to retire huge portions of existing fleet and no airline has come close to even keeping the network intact they inherited, let alone grown as they said.
Did you notice that there is no more talk of the massive 20% growth that AA said early in the BK? Everyone then knew it was impossible.

No offense WT, but nobody including Parker has to prove anything to you by justifying the numbers. Once again, keep in mind where he is and where you are. Your basement airline anylist business is as worthless as the bandwidth it takes up on this site. I doubt that you have access to any of the information that he and the ucc as well as the investment people do. If you really knew it all, I'm sure that one of the above mentioned people and/or groups would have dialed you up by this point.

Thank you for the response...
With all due respect, it doesn't have to go very deep to realize the billions of dollars in pay increases that everyone is standing around waiting to receive do not come close to being capable on even the billion and a half dollars worth of revenue increases that even Parker has promised.

And it still doesn't change the fact that Parker can promise all of the revenue benefits he wants but that is hardly a guarantee that they will happen. UA has yet to come up w/ the revenue benefits it promised in its merger and it took LCC years longer than Parker promised - I'm not sure if you could call them revenue benefits from the merger or rather an ability to adapt to the environment and manage the business - which Parker and co have managed they are capable of doing.

There is no silver bullet that will meet the expectations of everyone that is standing in line waiting for them w/ this merger. You can tell me where you think the difference between promise and reality will come - but I can most assuredly tell you that if you don't acknowledge that everyone isn't getting what they think they are getting, then I will most certainly be here standing w/ those AA employees who told the US employees (and fans on both sides) that this merger would never work as promised.

 

[777 / 767 / 757 Love]

I don't doubt that they are.... with enough money, any problem can be fixed.

The problem is that far too many people think that this merger is going to turn around years of low wages - either past or future.... on top of paying the creditors a premium to what they would otherwise receive, make the stockholders richer, and then have a healthy bonus for executives.

Forgive me for being cynical but I'd like to see some numbers as to how all this is going to happen.

FWA has posted numbers about how much US' salaries would have to increase to pay AA wages - don't remember the specific number but it is in the billions.
Add on that AA employees have taken cuts that they want to recover from and the number gets even higher.

And even the most optimistic people cannot doubt that there will be route reductions in a combined AA-US merger which would mean that there will be people pushed out the door... maybe it is ok for some to argue that the people that will be left will be better compensated than if the merger had not happened, but no one should pretend that everyone who is there now will remain and will see wage increases... that hasn't happened in any merger and it won't happen this time around.

And let's once again remember that all of these projections about "revenue synergies" are only predictions about how much revenue Parker thinks he can steal from other carriers. AA-US will be the last major merger; other carriers have grown their revenue at AA and US' expense individually.
What airlines do you think will allow AA-US to steal the revenue they have worked to gain?

Until someone can legitimately tell me where the revenue will come from to pay all these benefits and how above all everyone will benefit to the degree they think they can, I remain more than skeptical.

If it can all work out for AA-US people, I'm all for it... but I honestly do not begin to see how all of these promised benefits can happen and I see very few people who are willing to ask or answer the hard questions.

Everyone - including employees and investors - are looking for the easy win when history should clearly show that there are no easy or quick wins.

WT, you 100% get it, but don't bother wasting your time, no facts will be provided to support any rational argument against the merger, emotion and hysteria along with clever brainwashing from Parker has taken hold, so everyone is just ignoring the reality of what will be.

Cheers,
777 / 767 / 757

 

[777 / 767 / 757 Love]

Here is hoping for my christmas wish. May AA survive and thrive post BK, may they build on what they have created and grow from there with the new 777's, 787's,737's, and all the airbus a/c. And if there had to be a merger, let it be jet blue like like all the previous mergers (excluding usair attempt to take over delta and United) done quietly behind the scenes and then sprung on us.

From your lips to God's ears.....

 

[WorldTraveler]

WT, you 100% get it, but don't bother wasting your time, no facts will be provided to support any rational argument against the merger, emotion and hysteria along with clever brainwashing from Parker has taken hold, so everyone is just ignoring the reality of what will be.

Cheers,
777 / 767 / 757

thank you.
I post only because there are people who really do believe all of the promises... there are people and groups who stand to gain a whole lot based on this proposed merger and AA and US employees need to approach it with eyes wide open. It is precisely because AA-US will be the last major merger that people should be all the more skeptical.

I truly wish the AA and US people the best and hope everyone can achieve what they want.

But that is not the way life in the real world works.

Someone usually has to lose in order for someone else to gain. That's just the painful reality.

 

[Barfbag]

Less seats = more profits

 

[IORFA]

Let me educate you. If we merge we have an already agreed upon term sheet that immediately takes effect. This term sheet represents an approximate improvement of 10% over the last lbfo that AA had us vote on. New negotiations commence immediately and if no agreement is reached within 6 months then both parties have already agreed in writing that both parties agree to binding arbitration.

Seriously, stop with the facts. It confuses people.

 

[WorldTraveler]

Less seats = more profits

yes we get that... but how do you think employee numbers are going to be affected with less seats?

Do you think the number of employees will remain unchanged in order to produce less seats?

AA is chopping 10,000 or so employees while saying they are going to grow.

How is reducing the number of seats thru a merger going to not result in significant cuts in employee ranks?

When you and others can accept that a key component of the merger will involve hub closures and route reductions - just like every other finished merger has done (and UA's merger is NOT done) - with a reduction in the number of employees, then there should be no surprises about what will come during the merger.

Right now, no one wants to admit that a merger will result in fewer jobs... and eventually, yes, those who remain will end up better off.

But don't forget that reduced capacity helps other carriers as well....

 

[wings396]

I find it laughable that the two of you, Mikey-Poo, and Lovie don't even work for AA, but are "wishing" for no merger....
Why did you bail on AA Mikey???

 

[WorldTraveler]

why does that disqualify them from having an opinion?

 

[737823]

FWAAA and others have pointed out time and again u simply is an unsustainable business model. Its made money on the back of employees and with those ancillary fees. With out which u would be in bankruptcy court for the 4th time.

^THIS^

And the saddest part is the US employees don't even realize it and keep voting down TAs that would raise their pay significantly, so US continues to enjoy bargain basement labor costs.

Here is hoping for my christmas wish. May AA survive and thrive post BK, may they build on what they have created and grow from there with the new 777's, 787's,737's, and all the airbus a/c. And if there had to be a merger, let it be jet blue like like all the previous mergers (excluding usair attempt to take over delta and United) done quietly behind the scenes and then sprung on us.

Yes, yes, yes

Josh

 

[737823]

I find it laughable that the two of you, Mikey-Poo, and Lovie don't even work for AA, but are "wishing" for no merger....
Why did you bail on AA Mikey???

What you and others haven't explained is if USAir is so great and doing excellent why you as an employee feel the need for them to merge. I agree we don't have the complete picture, and I know from my knowledge of M&A transactions what looks like a good deal could turn sour (or vice-versa). It's very easy to have Mckinsey or another advisory employ different assumptions, understate costs, overstate synergies, and use a low discount rate to make this all look good. However, often times a lot of M&A deals end up going through for management stock awards/compensation and hubris. It also doesn't take to realize that AA/US are hiring these professionals to conduct valuations and estimate the synergies, they aren't likely to spend all the money and energy doing it if they aren't serious about merging. Of course, many deals look likely and then fall through but sadly I think we will see a merged AA/US in the not too distant future.

Josh

 

[Barfbag]

Less seats + 10,000 heads gone = even more profits

Is that right ??