Seniority
- Thread starter wrencher
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My opinion is they will do everything they can to prevent CHURN. I believe that there will be a lot of areas that will be RED CIRCLED. No one moves anywhere, but there will be layoffs. (opinion only)
In my opinion, and all I have to go on is the same as everyone else, what I read/hear in the press and rumors off the floor;
System Protection was a concession that was tied to the paid Lunch, that concession alone is equal to around a 6% pay cut and if shrinking AA is the objective they have around 1200 guys without system protection already. If there is a need for it and there are any "Red Circles" my guess is they will be where they always were, in the shops in OH where they dont want to lose Welders and others with specialized skills and maybe Avionics. I dont think that you would see Red Circles on the line with the exception that an A&P is required(and Avionics), if you recall the company eliminated, with the nod from the Union, any experience requirement for the line if you come from within the company .
While Horton has talked about layoffs, people forget that his conversations include Eagle, I think that Eagle may end up taking a big hit to their operation and thats where most of the carnage would be. We should get language giving those guys preference in hiring, like the pilots. In his walk through at JFK I heard that he said they did not know yet where they are going with the pensions (even though his lawyer was already out there pretty much saying its history) and that their wages on the line were competative, but not in OH. But thats to be expected, they said that during negotiations as well.
IMO I dont think the company has any intentions on getting rid of Overhaul, they will probably threaten to for the sake of bargaining but I really dont think that there's a better deal than what they have, otherwise why didnt they just send work out instead of hiring more people? As we read in the papers the MROs are having trouble getting people, how could they take on more work? Timcos first was late, and they had something to prove. With the average guy in their 50s I doubt that many would move for the job, look at Kansas City, the guys there basically called the companys bluff, not enough moved to either Tulsa or DWH.
We dont know what the company will do, they may come out with a "shock and awe" proposal, just to see what happens, what better time than the post Holiday lull in air travel? If things go badly they can always back off. Hortons remarks at JFK indicate they wont be looking for anything as far as wage concessions, thats no suprise, he was non-commital on the benefits and he targeted the bases. Perhaps he did so to see their reaction.
Or he may come out soft, in the hopes of getting a quick deal.
I think the company wants a quick deal, they want a "BK light". Get out of the deals they should have gotten out of back in 2003 such as underwater leases and grab what they can from labor, if they can, but in reality, despite their claims of high labor costs, at least when it comes to maintenance, they already have the lowest average costs per hour in the industry, sure they will spend more in total on labor but they save in overall costs because they wont be paying Timco and other providors to do the work. I think the last thing they want is to get bogged down in BK by not striking deals with their workers and when compared to the rest of the industry they really dont have an arguement for any more concessions. As they get their new fleet they will not need as many mechanics, the headcount will shrink over time and so will both their labor and total maintenance costs. So they could end up on top of the world with the newest fleet and the lowest costs.
So going after Seniority, something that even Non-union Delta recognizes to a limited degree isnt a realistic goal for the company. The benefits of doing so come nowhere near what the costs would be.
chris perry
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I see OH partnered with someone else,to reduce liability of wages,facilities and parts...Or a total shutdown,but there will be most certainly will be delays in the shutdown.Airplanes would be scattered all over the world getting overhauled... Could be done,but expensive,time consuming.
Am sure they are looking at every angle.
But other airlines have done before to cut
cost. I wouldn't be surprise AA trying.
Bob,
I agree with most all of your post. As I have posted right after the BK announcement. AA will become the new leader of the lowest cast when they come out of the BK. Not only will they go after Pensions, retiree bennies, but they will go after wages as well. Rather it be by the hour, time accruels, or hol vac and ot changes. You were also correct about Eagle will take a huge hit in this BK if not disolved comepletely, sold, or spun off. As you stated earlier, these are just an opinion. But I think we all know they will go after what they didn't get back in 2003 and then some.
I agree with most all of your post. As I have posted right after the BK announcement. AA will become the new leader of the lowest cast when they come out of the BK. Not only will they go after Pensions, retiree bennies, but they will go after wages as well. Rather it be by the hour, time accruels, or hol vac and ot changes. You were also correct about Eagle will take a huge hit in this BK if not disolved comepletely, sold, or spun off. As you stated earlier, these are just an opinion. But I think we all know they will go after what they didn't get back in 2003 and then some.
Frank Szabo
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Overhaul is a literal gold mine for the company - if they'd run it like a business designed to make money, that is. It's hard to imagine bean counters walking away from such a thing but considering some of the dumb stuff that's been done over the years it wouldn't surprise me.
The company doesn't look at t that way they look at it as a cost center. It could be a gold mine if the mechanics there would get in line with what all the other mro's do. The wages are too high compared to the others . If the mechanics want too earn line mech wages they should come to the line.they also have to accept 7 day coverage.
Frank Szabo
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TWU informer
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And just as has happened in the past, when one leads to a new low the others follow and beat that low.
Southwest and others will enter or return to Bankruptcy to get lower cost once AA is done with this turn of theirs, that is unless obtained via volunteer concessions.
The downward spiral continues and where it stops will only be when safety or security is compromised, and the Government takeover of the industry or the extreme regulation of the industry. My bet is in the end after more carnage and loss of life, we end up with a State/Government ran transportation system. just like the T.S.A. now.
It is a basic philosphy of leap frog to the bottom. Nobody wins and everyone suffers until the compromise occurs.
will fix for food
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You have your own reality to come to grips with.
We'll take care of ourselves.
Thanks.
The truth hurts?
Frank Szabo
Veteran
Considering my particular trade, their's really no truth to hurt - I'm really not even involved in the line/overhaul pissing match. You might check on that before you begin with the assumptions.
My trade allows me many options - does yours?
Absolutely!!!
