United To Asia

[Ukridge]

Two questions. Cosmo had mentioned on another thread the strength that United has over the Pacific. How much of a presence does any carrier have from your east coast to Asia? I know the United route map (in the in-flight magazine) showed a flight from New York to Tokyo. Would not the business demographics allow for more flights from other seaboard cities i.e. Washington, Philadelphia, to Asia? If the growth in China is as strong as reported, I would think that there eventually would be enough demand directly from this area instead of having to connect. Why does United fly from New York but not Washington? Cosmo stated that Asia is a true growth area. Will United (and any other carrier) then be able to leverage their established presence to take advantage of this growth based on having to make connctions in the U.S. before or after the main flight?

Second, there is always a great deal of reporting in the press how the U.S. carriers have explored flying over or near the North Pole in order to save petrol on a case by case basis. I realize that there are not nearly the number of flights between Sydney and South America or Perth and South Africa, but do those routes go over Antarctica? How does one get from Australia to Rio? Is it possible to even fly over this region or does night turn into day, compasses flip, and weird music play – does Dr. Who show up? Seems as if it is a rather remote area to being flying over for any length of time.
Cheers

 

[ual06]

Perhaps of interest to some. The shortest ground mile distance between two points is known as the Great Circle Route. Due to enroute winds, it may not be the fastest. Google.com and a search for "great circle route calculator" will give some interesting info. One site of possible interest is:

http://gc.kls2.com/

Caution - the center top of the home page may be offensive to some.

 

[ITRADE]

I guess the analogy is that if LAX can have LAX-LHR service, why can't UA fly IAD-NRT? Not sure if there is a NRT or Japan authority constraint, but I guess that its feasible.

I think that the other airports (PVG, HKG, etc.) 1) don't generate enough traffic to warrant the flight out of IAD, 2) break the ability to fill up flights out of the Left coast and ORD, and 3) place some big constraints on the plane itself. I'm not sure if you can do IAD-HKG on a 747 and I think that IAD-PVG is also a stretch. You might be able to use a 747, but that is a lot of additional capacity over a 777 which would be more ideally suit for the route.

 

[mweiss]

Would not the business demographics allow for more flights from other seaboard cities i.e. Washington, Philadelphia, to Asia?

My sense is, no. Washington would be the only other East Coast market I'd expect to have significant business, for diplomatic reasons. However, you need enough of that sort of business to fill at least a 777; nothing smaller has the range. There may well be enough business to fill, say, a 767-200...but at that point you might as well have them connect in NYC.

 

[Ukridge]

Itrade - Good point about the possible flights to China. It seems that if you live anywhere within the original 13 that you will have to connect to another flight to reach China though I am surpirsed though that United does not have a flight to Japan from Washington unless there is a code share that I am unaware of. If you live near Washington and wish to fly to Asia do you then have to fly to Chicago or New York?
For some reason, Singapore was adverstising their new flight to New York on European television( well actually your CNN International that I admit only under duress to having watched a few minutes of in a hotel). Is New York or Washington to China further than to Singapore? I ask this rhetorically as I merely have to consult Ual06's mapping.
Seems as if one would need a A340 to do this and even then as you mention, it depends on what the demand is.


Ual06 - impressive map - just wait until my wife sees me wasting time with this. Very good help section for those like me that do not know the airport codes of the world's airports. I put in SYD-EZE and SYD-RIO. Wow at 8000+ that is a lot of miles - further even than Itrade's example of IAD-PVG - I guess that is the reason you do not hear much about flying over the South Pole.

 

[WorldTraveler]

Korean has Washington to Seoul service and All Nippon has Washington to Tokyo - both w/ 777s. Boston has long been expected to get Asian service but nothing yet - I believe AA planned BOSNRT and then pulled it. The 7E7 may get the economics right for long-thin deep Asian routes but the A345 can do them now and the 777LR will as soon as it flies.

 

[ITRADE]

Itrade - Good point about the possible flights to China. It seems that if you live anywhere within the original 13 that you will have to connect to another flight to reach China though I am surpirsed though that United does not have a flight to Japan from Washington unless there is a code share that I am unaware of.

ANA flies daily IAD-NRT. They also fly JFK-NRT - as does JAL. So there is quite a bit of lift to NRT already.

Another China issue is that there is not really an open skies yet. All available slots to China are filled, and UA or any other U.S. airline is going to go for bang for the buck and load up from the midwest or west coast.

I did 5 trips to China last year - all United - all Business class. When we were going direct to China (as opposed to BKK), we usually flew DCA-ORD-PEK or flew IAD-SFO-PVG. If the schedules didn't work or were unavailable (as ORD-PEK often was in C class), we'd fly PEK-NRT-SFO-IAD or PEK-NRT-ORD-DCA.

If you live near Washington and wish to fly to Asia do you then have to fly to Chicago or New York?

See above.

For some reason, Singapore was adverstising their new flight to New York on European television( well actually your CNN International that I admit only under duress to having watched a few minutes of in a hotel). Is New York or Washington to China further than to Singapore?

No, but probably doesn't have the passenger count to justify IAD-PEK with a current 777 configuration. Mweiss spoke to this.

 

[Ukridge]

World Traveler - I had not considered ANA. They are now in the Star are they not? If a Star partner were already on the route that would certainly answer the question as to why United is not.

Itrade - Just out of curiousity, how much longer did your three segment trips take over a two segment - i.e. NRT-ORD-DCA as opposed to going through San Francisco? Was it significant?

 

[SVQLBA]

CO flies EWR - HKG and that is only recent, and even on a 777 weight limited. (Cathay may serve this also.) SIA just starting SIN-EWR also with an A340-500, the airliner in service that currently has the greatest range -- I believe the 777-220 LR will better it when it goes into service.

Summary -- range is the big issue, and even if an aircraft can "technically" make the range, can it carry enough cargo and pax at high enough yield to make the route pay? Many of the longest routes are payload limited today.

Note SIA's configuration of their A340-500s -- there's no coach class, just first and something they call "executive traveller" or sommut like that. That way it keeps the plane light, leaves more hold space for cargo (very high yield from Asia to US), and allows them to go for a big revenue premium -- important because A340s drink quite a bit more fuel than 777s.

 

[ITRADE]

World Traveler - I had not considered ANA. They are now in the Star are they not? If a Star partner were already on the route that would certainly answer the question as to why United is not.

Itrade - Just out of curiousity, how much longer did your three segment trips take over a two segment - i.e. NRT-ORD-DCA as opposed to going through San Francisco? Was it significant?

DCA-ORD-PEK allowed me about 4-6 hours additional gain. I could leave DCA at 9:00 a.m. on a Monday, get into ORD at 10:00, have a 2 hour layover (which I requested since a 1:00 to a internation 1x daily is risky) and would get into PEK around 3:00 p.m. on Tuesday afternoon.

IAD-SFO-NRT-PEK required me to depart IAD at 7:00 am, arrive SFO around 10:00, depart SFO at 11:30 or thereabouts, land in NRT at 2:00 p.m. depart NRT at around 4:30 or 5:00 and arrive PEK at 7:30 p.m. So, a good 6 hours additional time.

DCA-ORD-NRT-PEK took about 2 hours less than going through SFO.

 

[Cosmo]

Ukridge:

As WorldTraveler and ITRADE noted, ANA operates a daily nonstop IAD-NRT flight that carries United's "UA" code as well as its own. I suspect that is why United does not operate one of its own flights (yet) in the market. Perhaps if United continues to add more nonstops from Chicago and the West Coast to Asian cities beyond Tokyo (with ORD-PVG the most recently announced, starting in late October), that might then free up some slots at NRT for United to start its own IAD-NRT nonstops if the market has grown to the point that it can support both United's and ANA's flights. And with United being able to offer online connections at both ends of an IAD-NRT nonstop flight, this idea might not be so farfetched.

As for United operating a daily JFK-NRT nonstop, that route is a holdover from its mid-1980s acquisition of the former Pan Am routes to Asia, and United has been flying it continuously since then. United's flight to NRT competes with nonstops operated at least once daily by American, ANA, JAL and Northwest from JFK and Continental from EWR. But United's ability to offer online connections to a number of Asian cities beyond NRT, a capability shared by Northwest and obviously the two Japanese carriers but notably not by American or Continental, is probably what makes this route work for United.

 

[ITRADE]

Perhaps UA could make a go of it IAD-PEK if they created a 777-200ER with a premium config.

 

[Cosmo]

Perhaps UA could make a go of it IAD-PEK if they created a 777-200ER with a premium config.

ITRADE:

Possibly, but IMHO I don't think it's very likely United would configure a handful of planes for just one route. A more likely scenario is that Air China will join the Star Alliance in the near future and then it would operate perhaps three weekly IAD-PEK nonstops that also carried the "UA" code. While not ideal, this level of service might better conform to the route's available traffic. And since the Chinese airlines have quite a few unused U.S.-China frequencies (and the U.S. side doesn't), this potential Air China service might materialize faster than any new United flights could be approved.

 

[Ukridge]

Cosmo - A little off topic but you had mentioned Pan Am. Was this also the reason that United had service from LHR to Dehli? Does United retain the right to fly to destinations other than the Americas from LHR?
Overall it seems once again that the Star really does posses an inherant strength. You and others mentioned ANA from IAD to NRT. As a passanger this would seem ideal if NRT was your final destination as you would not have to first go to New York or Chicago. The connectivity possibilites of the Star seem to be quite a strong hand for member airlines.
Cheers

 

[ITRADE]

ITRADE:

Possibly, but IMHO I don't think it's very likely United would configure a handful of planes for just one route. A more likely scenario is that Air China will join the Star Alliance in the near future and then it would operate perhaps three weekly IAD-PEK nonstops that also carried the "UA" code.

Well, the idea for a premium aircraft would be on more than one route. Say JFK-LHR in a premium configuration. JFK-CDG. JFK-NRT. IAD-LHR.

Currently the 777s are configed for 12-49-197 in the higest F class config. Why not take that to 16F, 63C, 150Y on the premium routes?