If forced to guess, I'd say Airbus will get any order because -
1 - Parker seems to have a childish streak and will see ordering from Airbus as a way of "getting back" at Boeing.
2 - LCC already has Airbus narrow-bodies on order for delivery thru 2010. Why not just add to that order?
3 - I suspect Airbus will offer the lowest price, especially after their troubles of the last year or so.
The only potential problem is that the A320 is the by far the most popular airplane that Airbus produces and sales of Airbus widebodies has lagged. Meanwhile Airbus faces the costs of getting A380 production underway while losing money on them due to delay penalties and redesigning/producing the A350. So they may not be offering the deals they once were on the A320 since it is now their only cash cow.
Jim
Jim
All, very good guesses, Jim. Here are a few more things to consider:
1 -- DP has never really placed an Airbus a/c order, except for about 20 "growth" a/c for AWA that were added on in 2000'ish to the existing AWA purchase agreement. The airbus from the AwA side are the result of Bill Franke and others, not Doug. And needless to say, Doug had nothing to do with the Stephen Wolf-era USA Airbus.
That said, LCC is
seriously looking at both the 737NG and A320 family of narrow-bodies as replacement aircraft. Seriously. Bean counters have run the numbers and last I heard (Oct 2006'ish), Boeing was "winning" because of a lower CASM. Airbus was planning to come back with their "high density" lay-out (like EasyJet) -- OMG! Heaven help us if we go that route!
The funny thing is that no matter how many numbers the bean counters crunch and which A/C "wins" according to them, their recommendation is considered, but then the real price negotiating begins.
2 -- All the Airbus that are on order were on order before the merger, except for the A321 options (10 net a/c) and are "replacements" for the 757 lease returns and othe a/c returns. And I believe that was to make the AWA A318 go away, entirely. And there's really not that many to be delivered, starting in July 2008 - Nov 2010 = 15 A321, 9 A320, and 13 A319.
If the A350 is still on order by LCC -- I don't think LCC could be forced to take the A350XWB -- then there are no A330 on order. If LCC cancels it's A350 order, completely, then there's still 10 A330-200s on order, I believe.
Why not just add to those orders? Because LCC wants better pricing, better support, an engine competition, and a better airplane than what is on order. To get all those things, the aircraft would actually end up costing more to add to the current order than to place a brand-new order.
3 -- Price isn't everything. USA and AWA have both learned that while Airbus may be cheap to buy, it's not necessarily the cheapest to maintain, nor operate.
From what I have seen, it really is a competition. And I really believe that more than narrow-bodies are at stake here... This is going to be very, very intersting.
Price is going to be very important, as well as "total cost of ownership", fuel efficiency, and delivery dates -- Airbus has a huge back-log of narrow-body orders (one of the reasons LCC does not start getting theirs 'til 2008). Boeing has a back-order, too.
Oh, and don't forget that LCC is allowed to outsource, what, 50% of the Airbus heavy-checks, but not Boeing per the IAM? Another influence to consider.
Again, it's going to be a very interesting decision.
