Who's buying stock !
- Thread starter odie01
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You're probably right!! I want to borrow 10k from my 401k and buy AMR stock and watch it go up once the contracts are signed.
odie01
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That's what I did. If AA files BK, it's over anyway, like a good Captain, I'll go down with the ship!!!!
Now I'm really thinking about doing it.... thanks for the push!
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Down junior down.... Just talking about taking a little bet. Been around long enough to know AA's BS. Ever since I walked onto AA property , the sky has been falling!!! Just going with my gut.
odie01
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If your so set on bankruptsy why even post, especially if you don't even work for the company. I'm betting AA will settle with the unions, because of all of the money they are blowing and hiding. Not buying into the analyst propaganda. jmo
Dont you find it odd that AA is pushing this BK talk just as they are trying to secure contracts, especially with the pilot group? All this talk seems to coincide with labor negot. Maybe good old fashion AA scare tactics.
Haven't you in the past criticized employees for not buying the stock in 2003? Saying that we could have made up for our concessions by profiting off the stock? What makes buying AA stock more risky now, when they are only claiming a billion dollar loss off revenues that are $6 billion higher with over $4 billion in cash than when they were claiming a $3 billion loss and only had $1 billion in cash?
MCI transplant
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<_< ------ Hell! I have a few of them myself!
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Odd no not really, it has happened at least once before.
Well, then, put your money on AMR. Me? Lightning struck once, but I don't believe it will strike twice. I take the chest-thumping employee posters at their word when they proclaim that "the concession stand" is closed outside of Ch 11.
Sure, had you bought 3,000 shares at $5/sh on May 1, 2003, when the concessions were imposed, those shares would have been worth $120k in January, 2007. My belief then was that if you were willing to "invest" $120k or more (turns out it was more) in concessions with very limited upside potential (just 450 or so options you were awarded), then it made some sense to invest just 13% more (another $15k) that had real upside potential. And by January, 2007, that upside was there. Yes, your 450 or so shares were worth about $16k of profit (after the $5 strike price) but of course that was less than one year's concessions, right?
What makes it more risky now? You're joking, right?
Here are some of the factors:
1. In 2003, AMR was coming off of just two very huge annual losses and there was hope that things would turn around. Now, AMR is set to report its fourth consecutive huge loss and its ninth large loss in the past 11 years. You'd have to be high to think that AA is magically going to turn things around again ala 2003-07.
2. There was a chance that US and/or UA might fail to successfully reorganize, which would have helped AA tremendously. Turns out that after two bankruptcies, US survived. UA survived and merged with CO, with a pretty good cost structure. As expected, DL and NW filed for bankruptcy protection, merged, and appear stronger than ever with industry-leading low costs. As WT continually points out, both are eating AA's lunch in NYC and LA and CHI and elsewhere.
3. In 2003, AMR had a lot of furniture to burn. Over the past eight plus years, AA indeed burned most of it. Sold off various non-core assets plus sold some new stock to suckers when the price was high and sold a fair amount of new debt to suckers. Today, nearly all assets are encumbered. There's nothing left to mortgage or sell except for AA's family jewels, like LHR or NRT or S America. AA missed the boat on selling Eagle and now is going to just spin it off to the AMR stockholders.
4. Most employees willingly invested eight plus years in hopes that AA could turn things around. I doubt that the employees are going to willingly invest another couple of billion of concessions for another few years outside of Ch 11.
That's just four reasons off the top.
Recall all the posts during 2003-06 or so by many long-time posters here who repeatedly claimed that AA was going to file Ch 11 even after ramming the concessions down your throat? I gambled that Arpey would not and that the stock would rise. And rise it did. I don't see it happening again, no matter how simplistically you paint today's revenue numbers.
