Who's Next?
- Thread starter luvthe9
- Start date
HPearlyretiree
Veteran
- Joined
- Nov 6, 2002
- Messages
- 1,880
- Reaction score
- 1,614
I think they should buy North American.
TheLazarusman
Advanced
Forget the headaches it would cause, how about a "merger" between America West, Frontier, and USAirways? he he he 
As for the ATSB-backed loan, AWA hasn't had any problem paying it so far and doesn't look to in the forseeable future. And since the agency had approved AWA's potential bid for ATA assets, it seems that the ATSB is confident in AWA's ability to repay the loan.
Back on the subject of this thread, CEO Parker said that AWA will continue to look for opportunities as the industry shakeout goes on. And these could come very soon.
The clock is about to strike midnight for US Airways. If the judge has to abrogate any union contract, I think there will be a strike, which will kill the airline. So they have until the first week of January to get new labor contracts ratified. Two labor groups have yet to reach TAs, and it's far from certain that if they do, union members will approve them.
If US Airways liquidates, AWA potentially could bid on the Shuttle or DCA/LGA slots and gates. I also have a hunch that AWA might have a little interest in CLT. The latter might be acquired on the cheap, but the Shuttle/DCA/LGA assets would take a major outlay.
This might have accomplished by someone taking a new equity stake in AWA. Given TPG's long association with AWA, it's not inconceivable that they'd consider financing such a transaction. I also think it's possible such an acquisition could be financed by debt, given the lack of competition that AWA would then enjoy at DCA and LGA.
Meanwhile, Independence Air is trying to reschedule some aircraft payments due in January and has said it will file for bankruptcy if it is not successful. IAD would make a nice East Coast operation for AWA, and the aborted ATA shows how a merger with FLYI might happen.
AWA had lined up DIP financing for ATA. In Chapter 11, FLYI likely would dump a bunch of RJs and renegotiate leases on others. Or even bid on new contract flying for other airlines. Or maybe they'd sell off the RJs to Mesa. But AWA could always speed up FLYI's delivery of Airbuses to build up IAD with more cost-effective planes.
The sticking point on the ATA deal was that the aircraft lessors had other places for their planes. If UAIR liquidates, that will be so many planes on the market right away, I would not expect AWA to have difficulty getting enough for its purposes at prices it would want to pay.
The ATA scenario proved that Parker was serious about AWA participating in the industry shakeout. I think we should believe him when he says that will continue to be the case.
Back on the subject of this thread, CEO Parker said that AWA will continue to look for opportunities as the industry shakeout goes on. And these could come very soon.
The clock is about to strike midnight for US Airways. If the judge has to abrogate any union contract, I think there will be a strike, which will kill the airline. So they have until the first week of January to get new labor contracts ratified. Two labor groups have yet to reach TAs, and it's far from certain that if they do, union members will approve them.
If US Airways liquidates, AWA potentially could bid on the Shuttle or DCA/LGA slots and gates. I also have a hunch that AWA might have a little interest in CLT. The latter might be acquired on the cheap, but the Shuttle/DCA/LGA assets would take a major outlay.
This might have accomplished by someone taking a new equity stake in AWA. Given TPG's long association with AWA, it's not inconceivable that they'd consider financing such a transaction. I also think it's possible such an acquisition could be financed by debt, given the lack of competition that AWA would then enjoy at DCA and LGA.
Meanwhile, Independence Air is trying to reschedule some aircraft payments due in January and has said it will file for bankruptcy if it is not successful. IAD would make a nice East Coast operation for AWA, and the aborted ATA shows how a merger with FLYI might happen.
AWA had lined up DIP financing for ATA. In Chapter 11, FLYI likely would dump a bunch of RJs and renegotiate leases on others. Or even bid on new contract flying for other airlines. Or maybe they'd sell off the RJs to Mesa. But AWA could always speed up FLYI's delivery of Airbuses to build up IAD with more cost-effective planes.
The sticking point on the ATA deal was that the aircraft lessors had other places for their planes. If UAIR liquidates, that will be so many planes on the market right away, I would not expect AWA to have difficulty getting enough for its purposes at prices it would want to pay.
The ATA scenario proved that Parker was serious about AWA participating in the industry shakeout. I think we should believe him when he says that will continue to be the case.
HPearlyretiree
Veteran
- Joined
- Nov 6, 2002
- Messages
- 1,880
- Reaction score
- 1,614
Why would AWA want the shuttle?
Lets see, it didn't exactly rescue Pan Am, didn't cause Trump to have a big winner, sure didn't save Eastern, isn't racking up tons of revenue for Delta and hasn't made US Airways a shining example of financial security.
It would have been a dumb idea in the early 90's to buy it, and thankfully AWA didn't, because it would have chapter 7'd a long time ago.
How about this: AWA gets rid of the -200's (will be gone this month IIRC), pays off its ATSB loan, grows slowly where its strengths are, gets the ETOPS, and when the fuel prices go down, start adding 757's (assuming they are available), starts jettisoning the remaining 737-300's and runs the airline with two types.
If US folds, add a few flights to CLT, grab a few A320's if the lease rate is good, and don't do anything stupid that sucks up all the cash.
Lets see, it didn't exactly rescue Pan Am, didn't cause Trump to have a big winner, sure didn't save Eastern, isn't racking up tons of revenue for Delta and hasn't made US Airways a shining example of financial security.
It would have been a dumb idea in the early 90's to buy it, and thankfully AWA didn't, because it would have chapter 7'd a long time ago.
How about this: AWA gets rid of the -200's (will be gone this month IIRC), pays off its ATSB loan, grows slowly where its strengths are, gets the ETOPS, and when the fuel prices go down, start adding 757's (assuming they are available), starts jettisoning the remaining 737-300's and runs the airline with two types.
If US folds, add a few flights to CLT, grab a few A320's if the lease rate is good, and don't do anything stupid that sucks up all the cash.
HPearlyretiree
Veteran
- Joined
- Nov 6, 2002
- Messages
- 1,880
- Reaction score
- 1,614
Yeah, unlike Motnot and the shills on the Yahoo board, I worked in the industry, I lived through all the layoffs and furloughs when Ed and Mike made their manic decisions, I watched my friends lose jobs. Its fun to speculate ad infinitum about possibilities, but stupid ideas cost jobs.
(Hey, lets get 19 year old 747-200's with 19,0000 cycles on them and fly to the lowest yield place we can!)
Now is not the time to do stupid things in the airline biz, in an unstable environment you have to be the stable one.
(Hey, lets get 19 year old 747-200's with 19,0000 cycles on them and fly to the lowest yield place we can!)
Now is not the time to do stupid things in the airline biz, in an unstable environment you have to be the stable one.
jimntx
Veteran
Even AWA wanted the DCA and LGA slots, the poster here wrote as if they would have no competition for those slots. If those slots come on the market, it will be a financial bloodbath. Everybody with an extra dollar in the bank will be bidding. And even if TPG backs AWA's bid, don't forget that AMR has $4 billion in the bank right now. They wouldn't want to spend it all on the slots, but I bet they would give up a big chunk of it.
He who controls LGA controls New York!!!! It's mine! All mine! HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
He who controls LGA controls New York!!!! It's mine! All mine! HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
HPearly retiree,
I do not pretend to know what Doug Parker wants, except for the statements he makes. This thread is about what other opportunities AWA could have. I offer precious little opinion on whether any of those opportunities would be good for AWA or would be doable, and even less about whether AWA might be interested. Because I have no clue.
As for the Shuttle, it is my belief that with a cost structure like AWA's, it would be a rather profitable operation. That's why I think there is at least a possibility of interest.
Parker is a smart guy, and also a guy who's not going to do something that endangers his company. The ATA situation is clear proof of that. I don't think he would do anything the "sucks up the cash," as you put it, but that doesn't necessarily preclude AWA from participating in the industry shakeout.
One more thing: I don't understand this business of insulting/name calling (throwing around the word "shill") when you have a difference of opinion with someone.
You said it's fun to speculate about the possibilities -- well, that's what the thread was about (a thread I didn't begin, BTW). You also say stupid ideas cost jobs. Well, of course. I never said otherwise. Again, I believe Doug Parker is far more grounded than Mike Conway or Ed Beauvais ever were, and he's not going to got for "stupid ideas."
Me, I'm not Doug Parker, so I get to speculate on Internet message boards about ideas smart and stupid. If we all knew what his plans were, then it would be a topic of discussion, no?
One more thing, you suggested AWA buy North American. I've heard people talk about the pluses and minuses of that before, and my own opinion is it's probably not worth the effort for the reward there. Gee, and I said that without any insults ...
I do not pretend to know what Doug Parker wants, except for the statements he makes. This thread is about what other opportunities AWA could have. I offer precious little opinion on whether any of those opportunities would be good for AWA or would be doable, and even less about whether AWA might be interested. Because I have no clue.
As for the Shuttle, it is my belief that with a cost structure like AWA's, it would be a rather profitable operation. That's why I think there is at least a possibility of interest.
Parker is a smart guy, and also a guy who's not going to do something that endangers his company. The ATA situation is clear proof of that. I don't think he would do anything the "sucks up the cash," as you put it, but that doesn't necessarily preclude AWA from participating in the industry shakeout.
One more thing: I don't understand this business of insulting/name calling (throwing around the word "shill") when you have a difference of opinion with someone.
You said it's fun to speculate about the possibilities -- well, that's what the thread was about (a thread I didn't begin, BTW). You also say stupid ideas cost jobs. Well, of course. I never said otherwise. Again, I believe Doug Parker is far more grounded than Mike Conway or Ed Beauvais ever were, and he's not going to got for "stupid ideas."
Me, I'm not Doug Parker, so I get to speculate on Internet message boards about ideas smart and stupid. If we all knew what his plans were, then it would be a topic of discussion, no?
One more thing, you suggested AWA buy North American. I've heard people talk about the pluses and minuses of that before, and my own opinion is it's probably not worth the effort for the reward there. Gee, and I said that without any insults ...
jimntx said:
No, jim, if DCA and LGA come on the market, there will be intense bidding. I think it's almost certain that AWA wouldn't want to bid enough to win them -- AWA likes to buy stuff on the cheap. Again, I was only pointing out what some of the possiblities might be. (And back to HPearlyreitree's comments, I don't think the Shuttle makes sense for AWA, or most others, without the bigger batch of DCA/LGA slots and gates that US has.)
Furthermore, from what I've heard, CO actually owns the lease to the US terminal at LGA and gets "first dibs" on it under certain conditions. One would assume that US liquidating would be one of those conditions, but I don't know. If true, that of course would complicate any bid to acquire LGA operations by anyone other than CO. That said, lawyers probably can find ways around that; they always seem to.
Again, I don't know what AWA might be interested. It's just that I believe Parker when he says he'll evaluate any opportunities that arise, but only act if the numbers work.
jimntx
Veteran
motnot said:
First off, I was being semi-silly. You are correct that CO owns the US terminal and has it leased to USAIR. However, it does not "own" the landing slots which are the real asset. If UAIR goes under, I imagine that the New York airport authorities will (at least) attempt to regain control of the landing slots and auction them off. Whoever ends up with the slots is in an enviable bargaining position with CO--unless it's CO itself. The terminal is of no use to CO if they don't have the landing slots.
Well, I'm not sure that the winner of the slots would have a lot of leverage with CO. They'd both be in the same position. Slots don't do much good without the gates. And gates don't do much good without the slots.
If CO were determined (and could afford it), it could play hardball by refusing to lease the terminal to someone else. Although there may be provisions from the Port Authority that prevent the gates for going unused.
But I think if US goes belly-up, CO, AA, NW and maybe even WN (they've seemingly thrown out the old "rulebook") would be interested in bidding. Maybe HP, too, but probably not for the price required.
If CO were determined (and could afford it), it could play hardball by refusing to lease the terminal to someone else. Although there may be provisions from the Port Authority that prevent the gates for going unused.
But I think if US goes belly-up, CO, AA, NW and maybe even WN (they've seemingly thrown out the old "rulebook") would be interested in bidding. Maybe HP, too, but probably not for the price required.
HPearlyretiree
Veteran
- Joined
- Nov 6, 2002
- Messages
- 1,880
- Reaction score
- 1,614
Well Mot, its always fun to speculate, but the problem was, back in the silly days of Ed Beauvais and grifting sons and daughters and pie eyed Conway, people actually listened to silly ideas. Ideas like getting 4 decrepit gut wagon 747's from KLM, because we were sure to get that profitable Sydney route, ooops, oh well, we can run them from JFK to PHX, and from PHX to LAS! Nagoya? Why, its almost as good as Tokyo! How about a massive half price sale? Sure we will lose money on every ticket, but we hope to make it up in volume!
Franke may have been a complete tool, and he was rightly hated, but at least he disinfected the HQ of the starry eyed optimists that thought that going to 'cool' places with big planes was a great idea!
I want HP to suceed for a long time, the people are the best people I ever worked with, and I still have flight bennies, but the state of the industry is so precarious now that "bold and innovative" moves will, most likely result in a "bold and innovative" former airline! 🙂
We don't need the shuttle which is a massively overblown and overstated operation, we don't need to take up a plane for 12 hours a day just to go to HNL full of people cashing in FF points, and we don't need to buy another airline, dilute the corporate culture, have union seniority strife and all the hassle and bs that goes with it. We need to focus on strengths, pay down debt and provide quality service for our customers. We don't need to be jumping off of buildings, just because all the "cool" kids are doing it.
As for North American, that was in jest...
Franke may have been a complete tool, and he was rightly hated, but at least he disinfected the HQ of the starry eyed optimists that thought that going to 'cool' places with big planes was a great idea!
I want HP to suceed for a long time, the people are the best people I ever worked with, and I still have flight bennies, but the state of the industry is so precarious now that "bold and innovative" moves will, most likely result in a "bold and innovative" former airline! 🙂
We don't need the shuttle which is a massively overblown and overstated operation, we don't need to take up a plane for 12 hours a day just to go to HNL full of people cashing in FF points, and we don't need to buy another airline, dilute the corporate culture, have union seniority strife and all the hassle and bs that goes with it. We need to focus on strengths, pay down debt and provide quality service for our customers. We don't need to be jumping off of buildings, just because all the "cool" kids are doing it.
As for North American, that was in jest...
