Will Not Survive

totobird

Senior
Nov 26, 2002
255
5
www.usaviation.com
Today on CNNFN 2 bankruptcy experts predicted United will emerge from bankruptcy in 18 months due to thier large amount of assets but predicted a gloomy outlook for USAirways as we have no assets to speak of and the traveling public has not returned.
 
Well a lot of "experts" preduct a lot of things. Several are saying UAL will have a difficult time coming out of C-11 and liquidation is likely. Others are saying U is on the right track and will end up with the $1B loan. Yet others predict both airlines will go down (undoubtedly the "experts" hired by the likes of Carty and Mullen!)

So when I hear these doom and gloom so-called experts, I say "whatevah!"
 
US is trying to do what any smart individual should do with their own personal finances. Position yourself to break even in the worst possible economy and environment and if/when better times come, you will make a profit and be able to save. IF US can get the labor concessions and get the ATSB loan approval it should be OK. I also think US has a great opportunity to be "first out of the gates" with a lean & mean set-up for when the recovery does come.
 
I agree with you DC but putting everything together such as low travel demand, lack of assets and employee unwilligness to give more I seriously have my doubts about US recovering.
We could work for minimum wage but if people aren't traveling and the demand remains so low we are not going to survive.
 
[P align=left][STRONG][FONT color=#ff0033]The problem is not the employees willingness to give more.I'd say 850 million dollars in concessions last fall,plus whatever they are able to extort this time around,represents a pretty substantial investment on the part of the employees.It's time for Seigel and his underlings to start to do their jobs and generate revenue.[BR][/FONT][BR][/STRONG][BR]
[DIV class=body-head][SPAN class=headline][FONT size=4][STRONG]Analysts to airlines: Focus on cutting fares, not costs[/STRONG][/FONT][/SPAN][BR][SPAN class=deck]In the midst of a crisis, the industry, critics say, needs to enhance revenue - with business travel especially.[/SPAN][BR][FONT size=-1][SPAN class=byline]By Tom Belden[/SPAN][/FONT][BR][FONT size=-1][SPAN class=creditline]Inquirer Staff Writer[/SPAN][/FONT][BR][/DIV][BR]
[P align=left][BR][A class=headline2 href="http://www.philly.com/mld/philly/business/4770039.htm"]Analysts to airlines: Focus on cutting fares, not costs[/A] [/P][/SPAN]
 
Totobird surmised:

I agree with you DC but putting everything together such as low travel demand, lack of assets and employee unwilligness to give more I seriously have my doubts about US recovering.
We could work for minimum wage but if people aren't traveling and the demand remains so low we are not going to survive.


DCAflyer responds:

I agree with your comment to the extent that we are on thin ice, Toto, but I do not think liquidation is a foregone conclusion and taking it a step further, nothing is being done in CCY to prepare us for C-7. In fact, everything to the contrary. As far as strategic planning at HQ, the dead wood is gone and they have hired some new key people (including strategists) to prepare us going-forward. Now if liquidation was imminent, they would not have done that. That being said, we are clearly not out of the woods. But we are more than half way through C-11 and things are looking good. Strategically, it seems as thought the company sees a promising future in Carribean expansion. Just today CCY announced service to Grenada. What is good is that these new destinations are unlikely to be rivaled by low-cost competitors.

Yes, our fleet is down... way down! But Dave said in the beginning we were going to get smaller before we get bigger. It looks like we are stabilized at 279 but if we make it out of BK, once revenues return I believe we will see our fleet size increase again.

I am trying to avoid all the gloom-and-doomers on this board who think shop will be closed next week. That's nonsense. We may go down at some point in the not-so-distant future, but I prefer to go down fighting than to throw up my hands and say the ship has sunk.

Keep in mind, too, Toto, that there is a lot we don't know about that is going on in CCY.

Hang in there,

DCAflyer
 
I guess the fact that the pilots MEC voted to shove the new concessions down the throats of their members without a vote shows the willingness of the employees to give even more.

DCAFlyer just tell me how you plan to get the traveling public flying again to support our new lower wages.

99 Dollar fares.......okay sure that should do it !!!!!
 
I have to agree with one of the previous posts. I don't think our management will underestimate the revenue falloff again. I think they have taken every possible contengency into account to come up with their required concession/cost reduction. Everyone knows that pax and weather are BIG considerations during Dec., Jan. and Feb. It seems we are positioning ourselves to emerge from Chap 11 on schedule in March. It's going to be a tough winter and we need to do it better and more consistantly than the competition. This employee group has NEVER failed to meet a challenge whether backed by management or not. We will not go down with our hands in our pockets this time either. Low moral is a real problem right now, but I don't see our customers suffering for it in day to day operations. Everyone seems to be sucking it up and doing their job the best they can. I've never been prouder to be associated with this group than I am right now. If there is any way to come out of this thing in one piece, we'll find it.

Merry Christmas

A320 Driver